全文获取类型
收费全文 | 1835篇 |
免费 | 78篇 |
专业分类
管理学 | 231篇 |
民族学 | 9篇 |
人口学 | 182篇 |
丛书文集 | 11篇 |
理论方法论 | 204篇 |
综合类 | 8篇 |
社会学 | 1050篇 |
统计学 | 218篇 |
出版年
2023年 | 8篇 |
2022年 | 6篇 |
2021年 | 12篇 |
2020年 | 24篇 |
2019年 | 53篇 |
2018年 | 58篇 |
2017年 | 79篇 |
2016年 | 63篇 |
2015年 | 42篇 |
2014年 | 50篇 |
2013年 | 323篇 |
2012年 | 66篇 |
2011年 | 72篇 |
2010年 | 47篇 |
2009年 | 50篇 |
2008年 | 56篇 |
2007年 | 52篇 |
2006年 | 54篇 |
2005年 | 39篇 |
2004年 | 51篇 |
2003年 | 44篇 |
2002年 | 49篇 |
2001年 | 41篇 |
2000年 | 38篇 |
1999年 | 35篇 |
1998年 | 32篇 |
1997年 | 32篇 |
1996年 | 34篇 |
1995年 | 21篇 |
1994年 | 27篇 |
1993年 | 23篇 |
1992年 | 24篇 |
1991年 | 30篇 |
1990年 | 28篇 |
1989年 | 17篇 |
1988年 | 17篇 |
1987年 | 12篇 |
1986年 | 13篇 |
1985年 | 27篇 |
1984年 | 20篇 |
1983年 | 16篇 |
1982年 | 19篇 |
1981年 | 8篇 |
1980年 | 16篇 |
1979年 | 12篇 |
1978年 | 9篇 |
1977年 | 11篇 |
1976年 | 12篇 |
1974年 | 9篇 |
1968年 | 5篇 |
排序方式: 共有1913条查询结果,搜索用时 15 毫秒
51.
Most existing reduced-form macroeconomic multivariate time series models employ elliptical disturbances, so that the forecast densities produced are symmetric. In this article, we use a copula model with asymmetric margins to produce forecast densities with the scope for severe departures from symmetry. Empirical and skew t distributions are employed for the margins, and a high-dimensional Gaussian copula is used to jointly capture cross-sectional and (multivariate) serial dependence. The copula parameter matrix is given by the correlation matrix of a latent stationary and Markov vector autoregression (VAR). We show that the likelihood can be evaluated efficiently using the unique partial correlations, and estimate the copula using Bayesian methods. We examine the forecasting performance of the model for four U.S. macroeconomic variables between 1975:Q1 and 2011:Q2 using quarterly real-time data. We find that the point and density forecasts from the copula model are competitive with those from a Bayesian VAR. During the recent recession the forecast densities exhibit substantial asymmetry, avoiding some of the pitfalls of the symmetric forecast densities from the Bayesian VAR. We show that the asymmetries in the predictive distributions of GDP growth and inflation are similar to those found in the probabilistic forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. Last, we find that unlike the linear VAR model, our fitted Gaussian copula models exhibit nonlinear dependencies between some macroeconomic variables. This article has online supplementary material. 相似文献
52.
Marcel de Toledo Vieira Maria de Fátima Salgueiro Peter W. F. Smith 《Journal of applied statistics》2016,43(7):1310-1321
We investigate the impacts of complex sampling on point and standard error estimates in latent growth curve modelling of survey data. Methodological issues are illustrated with empirical evidence from the analysis of longitudinal data on life satisfaction trajectories using data from the British Household Panel Survey, a national representative survey in Great Britain. A multi-process second-order latent growth curve model with conditional linear growth is used to study variation in the two perceived life satisfaction latent factors considered. The benefits of accounting for the complex survey design are considered, including obtaining unbiased both point and standard error estimates, and therefore correctly specified confidence intervals and statistical tests. We conclude that, even for the rather elaborated longitudinal data models that were considered, estimation procedures are affected by variance-inflating impacts of complex sampling. 相似文献
53.
Smith DL 《Work (Reading, Mass.)》2007,29(2):127-135
Among working aged adults (18-64) with disabilities, three out of 10 (32%) work full or part-time, compared to eight out of 10 (81%) of those without disabilities [9]. In addition, 24.7% of women with a severe disability and 27.8% of men with a severe disability are employed, while women with a non-severe disability have an employment rate of 68.4% and men with a non-severe disability have an employment rate of 85.1% [14]. This study examined data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance Survey from 1995-2002 to determine whether or not disparities exist in the rate of unemployment for women with disabilities, compared to men with disabilities and women and men without disabilities. In addition, regression analysis looked at the how disability and gender predict the outcome of unemployment. Results showed that there has been essentially no change with regard to employment for any of these populations. In addition, disability and gender were found to be the strongest predictors of unemployment for women with disabilities. Possible explanations were discussed as to the reasons for the results and issues were presented for future research. 相似文献
54.
Greta R. Krippner 《Theory and Society》2007,36(6):477-513
This article explores the implications of the Federal Reserve’s shift to transparency for recent debates about neoliberalism
and neoliberal policymaking. I argue that the evolution of US monetary policy represents a specific instance of what I term
the “neoliberal dilemma.” In the context of generally deteriorating economic conditions, policymakers are anxious to escape
responsibility for economic outcomes, and yet markets require regulation to function in capitalist economies (Polanyi 2001). How policymakers negotiate these contradictory imperatives involves a continual process of institutional innovation in
which functions are transferred to markets, but under the close control of the state. Thus, under transparency, Federal Reserve officials discovered
innovations in the policy process that enabled “markets to do the Fed’s work for it.” These innovations enlisted market mechanisms,
but did not represent a retreat from the state’s active role in managing the economy.
Greta Krippner is Assistant Professor of Sociology at the University of Michigan. She is currently completing a book on the financialization of the American economy in the post-1970s period entitled The Fictitious Economy: The State, Financialization, and the Remaking of American Capitalism. New research examines the relationship between financialization and changing patterns of social conflict in US society from the late nineteenth century to the present. 相似文献
Greta R. KrippnerEmail: |
Greta Krippner is Assistant Professor of Sociology at the University of Michigan. She is currently completing a book on the financialization of the American economy in the post-1970s period entitled The Fictitious Economy: The State, Financialization, and the Remaking of American Capitalism. New research examines the relationship between financialization and changing patterns of social conflict in US society from the late nineteenth century to the present. 相似文献
55.
Barnett K Buys L Lovie-Kitchin J Boulton-Lewis G Smith D Heffernan M 《Journal of women & aging》2007,19(3-4):179-193
Women's fear of violence can impact negatively on their active participation in life. An ageing survey conducted with 2,620 Australian respondents aged 50 to 90 years examined aspects of work, learning, social, spiritual and emotional status, health, vision, home, life events, demographics, and asked an open-ended question about what being actively engaged in life meant. Ordinal regression was carried out on two dependent variables: wanting and needing to learn to discourage violence. Analyses found that as women's age increased, those on lower incomes were more likely than others to say they needed to learn how to discourage violence against them. This paper investigates the variables associated with the findings-transport, finances, news media, home safety, and reduced social interactions. Results highlight the importance of understanding women's fear in the context of personal and social issues, and the need to provide learning opportunities to improve safety and social engagement. 相似文献
56.
Gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgendered (GLBT) experiences with Earth-spirited faith 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Earth-spirited faiths (e.g., Pagan and Wiccan spiritualities) have been described as more affirmative toward gay, lesbian, bisexual, and transgendered (GLBT) members than mainstream Judeo-Christian faiths, but no research has explored Earth-spirited faiths' GLBT-affirming behaviors. This study investigated those behaviors as well as the faith experiences of GLBT Earth-spirited individuals. At time of coming out, participants who were affiliated with mainstream Judeo-Christian faiths reported greater faith conflict than those affiliated with Earth-spirited faiths; however, there were no differences in resolution of the conflict between the two groups, internalized homonegativity, or self-acceptance. In addition, Earth-spirited faiths engaged in many GLBT-affirming behaviors. 相似文献
57.
58.
Abigail R. Smith Nathan P. Goodrich Charlotte A. Beil Qian Liu Robert M. Merion Brenda W. Gillespie 《Journal of applied statistics》2019,46(9):1702-1713
Graphical representation of survival curves is often used to illustrate associations between exposures and time-to-event outcomes. However, when exposures are time-dependent, calculation of survival probabilities is not straightforward. Our aim was to develop a method to estimate time-dependent survival probabilities and represent them graphically. Cox models with time-dependent indicators to represent state changes were fitted, and survival probabilities were plotted using pre-specified times of state changes. Time-varying hazard ratios for the state change were also explored. The method was applied to data from the Adult-to-Adult Living Donor Liver Transplantation Cohort Study (A2ALL). Survival curves showing a ‘split’ at a pre-specified time t allow for the qualitative comparison of survival probabilities between patients with similar baseline covariates who do and do not experience a state change at time t. Time since state change interactions can be visually represented to reflect changing hazard ratios over time. A2ALL study results showed differences in survival probabilities among those who did not receive a transplant, received a living donor transplant, and received a deceased donor transplant. These graphical representations of survival curves with time-dependent indicators improve upon previous methods and allow for clinically meaningful interpretation. 相似文献
59.
Shyness,Preference for Solitude,and Adolescent Internalizing: The Roles of Maternal,Paternal, and Best‐Friend Support
下载免费PDF全文
![点击此处可从《Journal of research on adolescence》网站下载免费的PDF全文](/ch/ext_images/free.gif)
Matthew G. Barstead Kelly A. Smith Brett Laursen Cathryn Booth‐LaForce Shakeena King Kenneth H. Rubin 《Journal of research on adolescence》2018,28(2):488-504
The researchers examined differential outcomes related to two distinct motivations for withdrawal (preference for solitude and shyness) as well as the possibility that support from important others (mothers, fathers, and best friends) attenuate any such links. Adolescents (159 males, 171 females) reported on their motivations to withdraw, internalizing symptoms, and relationship quality in eighth grade, as well as their anxiety and depression in ninth grade. Using structural equation modeling, the authors found that maternal support weakened the association between shyness and internalizing problems; friend support weakened the association between preference for solitude and depression; and friend support strengthened the association between shyness and depression. Results suggest that shy adolescents may not derive the same benefits from supportive friendships as their typical peers. 相似文献
60.
Robert Smith 《Globalizations》2018,15(7):1045-1057
ABSTRACTThe Kurdistan Regional Government emerges out of the chaos of post-Saddam Iraq as a rare positive, providing both political stability and economic growth. However, the outward display masks a more complex domestic settlement where the trappings of the free market coexist with political parties who are significant economic actors. How can this model of development in Iraqi Kurdistan be explained? Turning to the writings of political economist Karl Polanyi, does his thinking on relations between society and economy offer a way to unpack the development? And what does this analysis tell us of prospects for Iraqi Kurdistan? 相似文献