中国居民消费价格指数间的关系与选择

居民消费价格是宏观经济监测的重要内容之一,其指数间的关系与选择具有重要意义。通过与国外发达国家的比较,从我国目前价格指数编制和选择使用的现状及存在的问题出发,研究环比、同比和定基价格指数以及环比“折年率”之间的相互转化情况和它们各自在经济监测中的特征。重点研究了基于X-12-ARIMA模型的环比价格指数的季节调整和同比价格指数相对环比价格指数对物价监测的时滞性。同时验证了研究中同比向定基指数转化的合理性。由此对我国居民价格实时监测的指数选择提供政策建议,也为我国价格指数的编制提出建议。     

论个群目标一致性机理及和谐管理路径

在日趋成熟的市场经济中,品牌已由简单意义上的产品标识演化为综合企业形象,产品质量和文化内涵的鲜明标志,成为企业进行市场营销的主力.在激烈的品牌竞争中,品牌中的文化内蕴成为其标志和灵魂,发挥着重要的市场营销的作用,左右着品牌在市场中的地位.这种无形的"文化力"影响可遍及现代社会经济运营的各个方面,深刻的改变着消费者的意识和行为,为企业打造强势品牌,增强品牌竞争力提供有利的支撑.本文通过对企业品牌竞争与品牌文化的关系探讨,品牌内涵演变以及消费者行为变化对品牌文化需求的必然性分析,着重论述了企业品牌竞争中的文化力作用.     

Deconstructing the silences: gay social memory

Adopting a Foucaultian perceptive, this article deconstructs the silences in the Singaporean gay community. The collective absences in homosexuals' social memory is not simply reflective of a fragmented community, but must be comprehended in relation to the role of the state and media in shaping particular discourses.     

Point and interval forecasts of age-specific fertility rates: a comparison of functional principal component methods

Accurate forecasts of age-specific fertility rates are critical for government policy, planning and decision making. With the availability of the Human Fertility Database (2011), the paper compares the empirical accuracy of the point and interval forecasts, obtained by the approach of Hyndman and Ullah (Comput Stat Data Anal 51(10), 4942?C4956, 2007) and its variants for forecasting age-specific fertility rates. The analyses are carried out using the age-specific fertility data of 15 mostly developed countries. Based on the one-step-ahead to 20-step-ahead forecast error measures, the weighted Hyndman-Ullah method provides the most accurate point and interval forecasts for forecasting age-specific fertility rates, among all the methods we investigated.     

Some Theoretical Comparisons of Negative Binomial and Zero-Inflated Poisson Distributions

In this article, we compare the zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) and negative binomial (NB) distributions based on three most important criteria: the probability of zero, the mean value, and the variance. Our results show that with same mean value and variance, the ZIP distribution always has a larger probability of zeros; with same mean value and probability of zeros, the NB distribution always has a larger variance; and with same variance and probability of zeros, the ZIP distribution always has a larger mean value. We also study the properties of Vuong test in model selection in three cases by simulations.     

Starting Values for EM Estimation of Latent Class Joint Model

Latent class model is one of the important latent variable methods for joint modeling longitudinal and survival data. Latent class joint model can handle underlying heterogeneous population, discover subpopulation structure, and incorporate correlated non normally distributed outcomes. The maximum likelihood estimates of parameters in latent class joint model are generally obtained by the EM algorithm. Finding the starting values is one of the major issues to implement the EM algorithm successfully. In this article, initial value formulas are provided, a simulation study is conducted to show that the proposed starting values perform very well, and two illustrative examples are presented.     

Hybrid Bayesian inference on HIV viral dynamic models

Modelling of HIV dynamics in AIDS research has greatly improved our understanding of the pathogenesis of HIV-1 infection and guided for the treatment of AIDS patients and evaluation of antiretroviral therapies. Some of the model parameters may have practical meanings with prior knowledge available, but others might not have prior knowledge. Incorporating priors can improve the statistical inference. Although there have been extensive Bayesian and frequentist estimation methods for the viral dynamic models, little work has been done on making simultaneous inference about the Bayesian and frequentist parameters. In this article, we propose a hybrid Bayesian inference approach for viral dynamic nonlinear mixed-effects models using the Bayesian frequentist hybrid theory developed in Yuan [Bayesian frequentist hybrid inference, Ann. Statist. 37 (2009), pp. 2458–2501]. Compared with frequentist inference in a real example and two simulation examples, the hybrid Bayesian approach is able to improve the inference accuracy without compromising the computational load.     

珠海港发展江海联运可行性分析

港口的发展对于所在城市的发展具有推动作用,它不仅能产生直接的经济收益,还能提高城市的竞争力和知名度。目前,珠海港面临腹地经济总量小和沿海港口竞争激烈等突出问题。要想实现吞吐量的增加,就要通过集疏运体系的完善,使腹地延伸到中西部地区。珠海是西江黄金水道的入海口,西江沿岸有众多内陆港口,沿江经济带也正在形成,这些都为珠海港发展江海联运、延伸经济腹地提供了机遇。     

构建高校教师柔性化激励与约束机制刍议

随着高校竞争的日趋激烈,如何有效发挥高校对教师的激励与约束作用,充分调动教师工作积极性已经成为各高校提高核心竞争力的主要手段之一。但是目前高校对教师的激烈约束机制大多还具有管理制度化、考核数量化、目标多元化等特点,使得激励与约束机制偏硬轻软,缺乏柔性化,因此有必要建立一套立体式柔性化的教师激励与约束机制。     

扶持自有宗祧力,会见松都业更昌——朝鲜历代汉诗概观（4）

谚文诗歌的兴起打破了汉诗一统天下的格局,但对于汉诗的继续繁荣却并无大碍.李氏朝鲜五百年的汉诗,多关注民生疾苦之作,不乏讽刺暴政之声,在反抗外敌入侵的战争中,更关切国家民族的命运,较之前朝作品,现实主义色彩更为浓重.以风格论,李朝诗坛初期学宋崇尚苏黄,中期仿唐推崇李杜,后期受清人影响兼宗唐宋.现代朝鲜,谚文取代汉字,汉诗创作告终.