Dynamics of Mixed Coalitions Under Social Cohesion Constraints

ABSTRACT

Parameters for the birth and death diffusion life table model subject to downward jumps randomly occurring at a constant rate are estimated. The jump magnitudes have a beta distribution with support [0, l_x ], where l_x is the total number of survivors prior to the jump. The estimation method is maximum likelihood. The Cramer–Rao Lower bound and the asymptotic distribution for the MLE are derived. The model is applied to the U.S. men′s population from 1900 to 1999.     

原始宗教对达斡尔族风俗习惯的影响

本文在田野作业和文献资料的基础上,运用民俗学的理论知识,主要从达斡尔族信仰习俗、礼仪习俗、丧葬习俗、禁忌习俗、原始医术这五个方面着手分析研究,探讨达斡尔族原始宗教思想对达斡尔族的风俗习惯的影响。可以说在达斡尔族的许多风俗习惯中体现出其原始宗教的印迹,达斡尔族原始宗教对当时的达斡尔族民众的生活产生了深远影响。此论题的研究,对于我们进一步认识、研究达斡尔族历史文化有积极意义,并能为此研究提供一个新的研究视角。     

WOMEN PREFER LARGER GOVERNMENTS: GROWTH,STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION,AND GOVERNMENT SIZE

The increase in income per capita is accompanied, in virtually all countries, by two changes in economic structure: the increase in the share of government spending in gross domestic product (GDP), and the increase in female labor force participation. We argue that these two changes are causally related. We develop a growth model based on Galor and Weil (1996) where female participation in market activities, fertility, and government size, in addition to consumption and saving, is endogenously determined. Rising incomes lead to a rise in female labor force participation as the opportunity cost of staying at home and caring for the children increases. In our model, higher government spending decreases the cost of performing household chores, including, but not limited to, child rearing and child care, as in Rosen (1996) . We also use a wide cross‐section of data for developed and developing countries and show that higher market participation by women is positively and robustly associated with government size. We then investigate the causal link between participation and government size using a novel unique data set that allows the use of the relative price of productive home appliances as an instrumental variable. We find strong evidence of a causal link between female market participation and government size. This effect is robust to the country sample, time period, and a set of controls in the spirit of Rodrik (1998) . (JEL O4, E62, H11)     

Ideology and the Tax Revolt: Florida's Amendment 1

A number of researchers have concluded that the tax revolt ismotivated by an antigovernment ideology which is distributeddiffusely in the mass public. However, public opinion on Florida'sAmendment 1 was fragmented into a number of separate issue publics,with different sets of voters expressing different concerns.The implication of this finding is that prevailing interpretationsof the tax revolt have overestimated the role of ideology.     

Réglementation et avenir du travail: la relation de travail facilite l'innovation

La transformation numérique et la réorganisation des entreprises font apparaître de nouvelles modalités de travail fort éloignées de la relation de travail typique. Selon les partisans de la rupture numérique, le cadre juridique actuel n'est pas adapté aux formes de travail et modèles d'entreprises «innovants». Pourtant, la réglementation du travail peut faciliter l'innovation et la flexibilité, comme l'emploi typique peut être un moyen d'améliorer l'efficacité et de réduire les coûts. En effet, la relation de travail permet le plein exercice des prérogatives de l'employeur et le déploiement interne de la main-d'œuvre; c'est aussi un bon moyen d'assurer formation et montée des compétences.     

The dynamics of homeownership among the 50+ in Europe

We use life history data covering households in 13 European countries to analyse residential moves past the age of 50. We observe four types of moves: renting to owning, owning to renting, trading up or trading down for homeowners. We find that in the younger group (aged 50–64), trading up and purchase decisions prevail; in the older group (65+), trading down and selling are more common. Overall, moves are rare, particularly in countries characterised by high transaction costs. Most moves are driven by changes in household composition (divorce, widowhood, nest leaving by children), but economic factors play a role: low-income households who are house-rich and cash-poor are more likely to sell their home late in life.     

Semiparametric Regression with Kernel Error Model

Abstract.  We propose and study a class of regression models, in which the mean function is specified parametrically as in the existing regression methods, but the residual distribution is modelled non-parametrically by a kernel estimator, without imposing any assumption on its distribution. This specification is different from the existing semiparametric regression models. The asymptotic properties of such likelihood and the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) under this semiparametric model are studied. We show that under some regularity conditions, the MLE under this model is consistent (when compared with the possibly pseudo-consistency of the parameter estimation under the existing parametric regression model), is asymptotically normal with rate and efficient. The non-parametric pseudo-likelihood ratio has the Wilks property as the true likelihood ratio does. Simulated examples are presented to evaluate the accuracy of the proposed semiparametric MLE method.     

Humps and Bumps in Lifetime Consumption

In this article we argue that the life-cycle model that allows demographics to affect household preferences and relaxes the assumption of certainty equivalence can generate hump-shaped consumption profiles over age that are very similar to those observed in household-level data sources and, in particular, match the differences in shape across different education groups. Liquidity constraints or myopia are not required to explain the empirical features of observed life-cycle patterns.     

Deterministic versus stochastic seasonal fractional integration and?structural breaks

This paper considers a general model which allows for both deterministic and stochastic forms of seasonality, including fractional (stationary and nonstationary) seasonal orders of integration, and also incorporating endogenously determined structural breaks. Monte Carlo analysis shows that, in the case of a single break, the suggested procedure performs well even in small samples, accurately capturing the seasonal properties of the series, and correctly detecting the break date. As an illustration, the model is estimated using four US series (output, consumption, imports and exports). The results suggest that the seasonal patterns of these variables have changed over time: specifically, in the second subsample the systematic component of seasonality becomes insignificant, whilst the degree of persistence increases.