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111.
Claudia Tarantola Guido Consonni Petros Dellaportas 《Journal of statistical planning and inference》2008
We deal with two-way contingency tables having ordered column categories. We use a row effects model wherein each interaction term is assumed to have a multiplicative form involving a row effect parameter and a fixed column score. We propose a methodology to cluster row effects in order to simplify the interaction structure and to enhance the interpretation of the model. Our method uses a product partition model with a suitable specification of the cohesion function, so that we can carry out our analysis on a collection of models of varying dimensions using a straightforward MCMC sampler. The methodology is illustrated with reference to simulated and real data sets. 相似文献
112.
In all empirical or experimental sciences, it is a standard approach to present results, additionally to point estimates, in form of confidence intervals on the parameters of interest. The length of a confidence interval characterizes the accuracy of the whole findings. Consequently, confidence intervals should be constructed to hold a desired length. Basic ideas go back to Stein (1945) and Seelbinder (1953) who proposed a two-stage procedure for hypothesis testing about a normal mean. Tukey (1953) additionally considered the probability or power a confidence interval should possess to hold its length within a desired boundary. In this paper, an adaptive multi-stage approach is presented that can be considered as an extension of Stein's concept. Concrete rules for sample size updating are provided. Following an adaptive two-stage design of O’Brien and Fleming (1979) type, a real data example is worked out in detail. 相似文献
113.
Alberto Alesina Filipe R. Campante Guido Tabellini 《Journal of the European Economic Association》2008,6(5):1006-1036
Fiscal policy is procyclical in many developing countries. We explain this policy failure with a political agency problem. Procyclicality is driven by voters who seek to “starve the Leviathan” to reduce political rents. Voters observe the state of the economy but not the rents appropriated by corrupt governments. When they observe a boom, voters optimally demand more public goods or lower taxes, and this induces a procyclical bias in fiscal policy. The empirical evidence is consistent with this explanation: Procyclicality of fiscal policy is more pronounced in more corrupt democracies. (JEL: E62, D73, D78) 相似文献
114.
This paper develops a generalization of the widely used difference‐in‐differences method for evaluating the effects of policy changes. We propose a model that allows the control and treatment groups to have different average benefits from the treatment. The assumptions of the proposed model are invariant to the scaling of the outcome. We provide conditions under which the model is nonparametrically identified and propose an estimator that can be applied using either repeated cross section or panel data. Our approach provides an estimate of the entire counterfactual distribution of outcomes that would have been experienced by the treatment group in the absence of the treatment and likewise for the untreated group in the presence of the treatment. Thus, it enables the evaluation of policy interventions according to criteria such as a mean–variance trade‐off. We also propose methods for inference, showing that our estimator for the average treatment effect is root‐N consistent and asymptotically normal. We consider extensions to allow for covariates, discrete dependent variables, and multiple groups and time periods. 相似文献
115.
Todd Graham Marcel Broersma Karin Hazelhoff Guido van 't Haar 《Information, Communication & Society》2013,16(5):692-716
Politicians across Western democracies are increasingly adopting and experimenting with Twitter, particularly during election time. The purpose of this article is to investigate how candidates are using it during an election campaign. The aim is to create a typology of the various ways in which candidates behaved on Twitter. Our research, which included a content analysis of tweets (n?=?26,282) from all twittering Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat candidates (n?=?416) during the 2010 UK General Election campaign, focused on four aspects of tweets: type, interaction, function and topic. By examining candidates' twittering behaviour, the authors show that British politicians mainly used Twitter as a unidirectional form of communication. However, there were a group of candidates who used it to interact with voters by, for example, mobilizing, helping and consulting them, thus tapping into the potential Twitter offers for facilitating a closer relationship with citizens. 相似文献
116.
117.
Mikhail Golosov Guido Lorenzoni Aleh Tsyvinski 《Econometrica : journal of the Econometric Society》2014,82(3):1055-1091
The paper studies how asset prices are determined in a decentralized market with asymmetric information about asset values. We consider an economy in which a large number of agents trade two assets in bilateral meetings. A fraction of the agents has private information about the asset values. We show that, over time, uninformed agents can elicit information from their trading partners by making small offers. This form of experimentation allows the uninformed agents to acquire information as long as there are potential gains from trade in the economy. As a consequence, the economy converges to a Pareto efficient allocation. 相似文献
118.
In this paper we study the effects of short-term fluctuations in indicators of economic well-being on selected demographic response such as births, marriages and deaths at age intervals in eleven Latin American countries between 1910 and 1990. We use conventional distributed lag models to assess the magnitude and direction of effects and test a variety of hypotheses some of which have been posed to hold in Western Europe and others that are more specific and tailored to the Latin American context. We also compare the magnitude and direction of effects obtained among these countries with those obtained for pre-industrial Europe and uncover the existence of broadly similar patterns. 相似文献
119.
People and Pixels 20 years later: the current data landscape and research trends blending population and environmental data 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Kugler Tracy A. Grace Kathryn Wrathall David J. de Sherbinin Alex Van Riper David Aubrecht Christoph Comer Douglas Adamo Susana B. Cervone Guido Engstrom Ryan Hultquist Carolynne Gaughan Andrea E. Linard Catherine Moran Emilio Stevens Forrest Tatem Andrew J. Tellman Beth Van Den Hoek Jamon 《Population and environment》2019,41(2):209-234
Population and Environment - In 1998, the National Research Council published People and Pixels: Linking Remote Sensing and Social Science. The volume focused on emerging research linking changes... 相似文献
120.
Though field-level uncertainty represents a common challenge, research seldom addresses how institutional work that aims to influence institutional change occurs in the face of uncertainty. We study institutional work practices in a field beset with high uncertainty. Focusing on a field-configuring event in the semiconductor industry, we show how institutional work is possible through practices of dealing with uncertainty that do not eliminate the basic uncertainty but nevertheless configure the field and institutionalize a common direction without specifying a final destination. We find evidence of the open-endedness and collectiveness of institutional work and we contribute to the microfoundations of institutional theory conceptualizing a set of four practices of dealing with field-level uncertainty purposively but not purposefully, i.e., bootstrapping, roadmapping, leader-picking, and issue-bracketing. We highlight the reciprocal relationship between practices and uncertainty, focus on the coordination of institutionalization, and distinguish between events in fields marked by high versus low uncertainty. 相似文献