VIOLENT VALUES, CONDUCT NORMS, AND YOUTH AGGRESSION: A Multilevel Study in Iceland

The subculture of violence approach suggests that group adherence to values and norms that encourage violence influence aggressive behavior through two analytically separate processes: (1) internalization of values encouraging violence, and (2) social control stemming from others' adherence to conduct norms. While some attention has been paid to the former process, the research has rarely addressed the latter. We examine the individual-level and contextual effects of values that encourage violence and perceived conduct norms on youth aggression in Iceland. The results indicate that group adherence to violent values and norms influences aggression through social control as well as internalization (socialization), lending cross-cultural support to the subculture of violence perspective.     

Early Life Stress: Effects on the Regulation of Anxiety Expression in Children and Adolescents

This study examined children's (N = 79; 9–10 years) and adolescents’ (N = 82; 15–16 years) ability to regulate their emotion expressions of anxiety as they completed a modified version of the Trier Social Stress Test for Children (TSST‐C). Approximately half in each age group were internationally adopted from institutional care (N = 79) and half were non‐adopted, age‐matched peers (N = 82). Institutional care was viewed as a form of early life stress. Coders who were reliable and blind to group status watched videos of the session to assess anxiety expressions using the Child and Adolescent Stress and Emotion Scale developed for this study. Children exhibited more expressions of anxiety than adolescents, and youth adopted from institutions showed more expressions of anxiety than their non‐adopted counterparts. The role of early life stress on observed anxiety expressions remained significant after controlling for differences in age, physiological stress responses measured through salivary cortisol reactivity, and self‐reports of stress during the TSST‐C. This suggests possible deficits in the regulation of expressive behavior for youth with early life stress histories, which cannot be explained by experiencing the task as more stressful.     

Welfare state context,female labour-market attachment and childbearing in Germany and Denmark

This study investigates the role of female labour-market attachment and earnings in childbearing progressions in two very different European contexts. By applying event-history techniques to German and Danish register data during 1981–2001, we demonstrate how female earnings relate to first, second and third birth propensities. Our study shows that female earnings are positively associated with first birth fertility in Denmark, while this is not the case in West Germany. We interpret our findings based on the fact that Danish social context and policy encourage women to establish themselves in the labour market before becoming mothers, while the German institutional context during the 1980s and 1990s was not geared towards encouraging maternal employment. For higher-order births, the results are less clearcut. For Denmark we find a slightly positive correlation between female earnings and second-birth fertility, while the association is somewhat negative for third-order births. In Germany, women tend to leave the labour market when becoming mothers. Non-employed mothers have elevated second and, in particular, third-birth rates. For the group of mothers who are employed, we find only a weak association between their earnings and higher-order fertility.     

The Impact of Food Price Inflation on Subjective Well-being: Evidence From Urban Ethiopia

The world has experienced dramatic food price inflation in recent years, which sparked social unrest and riots in various developing countries. In this paper, we use a novel approach to measure the impact of food price inflation on subjective well-being of urban households in Ethiopia, a country which exhibited one of the highest rates of food price inflation during 2007–2008. Using an ordered probit regression, we show that being negatively affected by a food price shock reduced subjective well-being of households significantly, although the economy was growing rapidly. We also show that relative standing has a large negative effect on subjective well-being of respondents. The fact that rapid economic growth was accompanied by a decline in citizens’ average reported level of life satisfaction brings its pro-poorness into question. We argue that controlling the rise in food price and ensuring that economic growth trickles down to the average urban citizen would enhance welfare significantly.     

The value of improved road safety

We report the results of a contingent valuation study for finding a conservative estimate of the value-of-statistical-life in an urban road safety context in Sweden. We estimate the value of both a private-good device and a public-good safety program. The reduction of risk is communicated with a “community analogy” representation of the “Vision Zero” target of the national traffic-safety policy. According to this target, the road-traffic system should be designed so as to prevent accidents when they happen to lead to fatalities or severe injuries. We use the “certainty approach” for ex-post correction of results to remove or mitigate hypothetical bias of responses. As expected we find insensitivity of responses in the full sample to the size of the risk reduction being valued. By our approach we can compute a conservative estimate, based on answers from fully confident respondents, of the value of the largest possible safety enhancement (i.e. fulfilment of the “Vision Zero”). This lower bound estimate indicates a higher average willingness-to-pay for public safety-improving measures than currently assumed in benefit-cost assessments. We also find that the willingness to pay is considerably lower within a public-good than a private-good framework and a weak indication of sensitivity to scale among the most confident respondents. JEL Codes H43 · I18 · Q51     

Small Effects of Selective Migration and Selective Survival in Retrospective Studies of Fertility

In this study, we assess the accuracy of fertility estimates that stem from the retrospective information that can be derived from an existing cross-sectional population. Swedish population registers contain information on the childbearing of all people ever registered as living in Sweden, and thus allow us to avoid problems of selectivity by the virtue of survival or nonemigration when estimating the fertility measures for previous calendar periods. We calculate two types of fertility rates for each year in 1961–1999: (i) rates that are based on the population that was living in Sweden at the end of 1999, and (ii) rates that also include information on people who had died or emigrated before the turn of the twentieth century. We find that the omission of information on individuals who had emigrated or died, as the situation would be in any demographic survey, most often have negligible effects on fertility measures. However, first-birth rates of immigrants gradually become more biased as we move back in time from 1999 so that they increasingly tend to over-estimate the true fertility of that population.     

Conditional probability and improper priors

ABSTRACT

According to Jeffreys improper priors are needed to get the Bayesian machine up and running. This may be disputed, but usage of improper priors flourish. Arguments based on symmetry or information theoretic reference analysis can be most convincing in concrete cases. The foundations of statistics as usually formulated rely on the axioms of a probability space, or alternative information theoretic axioms that imply the axioms of a probability space. These axioms do not include improper laws, but this is typically ignored in papers that consider improper priors.

The purpose of this paper is to present a mathematical theory that can be used as a foundation for statistics that include improper priors. This theory includes improper laws in the initial axioms and has in particular Bayes theorem as a consequence. Another consequence is that some of the usual calculation rules are modified. This is important in relation to common statistical practice which usually include improper priors, but tends to use unaltered calculation rules. In some cases, the results are valid, but in other cases inconsistencies may appear. The famous marginalization paradoxes exemplify this latter case.

An alternative mathematical theory for the foundations of statistics can be formulated in terms of conditional probability spaces. In this case, the appearance of improper laws is a consequence of the theory. It is proved here that the resulting mathematical structures for the two theories are equivalent. The conclusion is that the choice of the first or the second formulation for the initial axioms can be considered a matter of personal preference. Readers that initially have concerns regarding improper priors can possibly be more open toward a formulation of the initial axioms in terms of conditional probabilities. The interpretation of an improper law is given by the corresponding conditional probabilities.     

Optimized Sampling Strategies for Identifying Modes in Length-frequency Distributions

An approach to evaluate sampling strategies to detect modes in length-distributions is presented. Distributions based on various numbers of samples (S) and sample sizes (n) were simulated from the original cod and capelin data in Icelandic waters, incorporating within sample correlations. A peak was discerned if the difference between any simulated and original distribution did not exceed a pre-specified Δ, given a probability. This was achieved with numerous combinations of S and n, and the optimal choice will depend on the sampling costs. Variance-equivalence curves also illustrate the difference between demanding precision of mean lengths versus precision of length distributions.     

Previous sickness presence among long‐term sick‐listed in Norway and Sweden: A retrospective study of prevalence and self‐reported reasons

The aim of the present study was to analyse previous sickness presence among long‐term sick‐listed individuals in Norway and Sweden and the reasons given for sickness presence. The study was based on survey data for 3,312 persons in Norway and Sweden who had been sick‐listed for at least 30 days. Two questions were used. One measured prevalence: During the last 12 months prior to your current sick leave, did you go to work even when feeling so ill that you should have taken sick leave? The second question concerned reasons for sickness presence. Large differences were found between Norway and Sweden in the prevalence of sickness presence. More long‐term sick‐listed Norwegians than Swedes reported sickness presence [adjusted odds ratio (OR) for Sweden 0.65 (0.53–0.80)]. The Swedes more often reported financial reasons for sickness presence [adjusted OR 2.77 (2.1 to ?3.54)], while the Norwegians more often gave positive reasons related to work. The national differences may be related to differences in sickness insurance strategies.     

Hat die Lebensstilforschung eine Zukunft?

Zusammenfassung In jüngster Zeit h?ufen sich Versuche einer Bilanzierung der Lebensstilforschung — so von Thomas Meyer und Dieter Hermann. Die Ansprüche der Lebensstilforschung und ihre empirische Evidenz werden dabei selektiv dargestellt und nicht hinreichend systematisiert. Daneben lassen die überwiegend negativen Bilanzen offen, ob die Lebensstilsoziologie als gescheitert anzusehen ist bzw. welche Implikationen für die zukünftige Forschung abzuleiten sind. Der vorliegende Beitrag versteht sich als Bestandsaufnahme mit gr?βerer Systematik: Neun zentrale Behauptungen werden im Licht empirischer Befunde auf ihre Haltbarkeit bewertet. Dabei stehen die viel zitierten Ans?tze des Sinus-Instituts und von Gerhard Schulze im Mittelpunkt. Angelehnt an diese Diskussion werden vier Varianten der Lebensstilanalyse auf ihre Zukunftstr?chtigkeit geprüft. Dabei werden zum einen die Vorzüge variablenorientierter, themenzentrierter Forschungsans?tze betont. Zum anderen wird für typologisch orientierte, lebensstilbasierte Sozialstrukturanalysen das Programm einer theoriereichen Konstruktion replizierbarer Typologien umrissen.