Climate change and population migration in Brazil’s Northeast: scenarios for 2025–2050

This research contributes to an understanding of the relationship between climate change, economic impacts and migration. We model the long-term relationship (up to 45 years of projection) between demographic dynamics—particularly migration—driven by changes in the performance of the economy due to climate changes in the Northeast region of Brazil. The region is of particular relevance to the study of climate change impacts given its large human population (28% of Brazil’s population) and high levels of impoverishment, having an extensive semi-dry area which will be severely impacted by growing temperatures. Ultimately, the integrated model generates state- and municipal-level migration scenarios based on climate change impacts on the primary economic sectors and their articulations with other sectors. Results suggest that the predicted climate changes will impact severely the agriculture sector in the region, acting as a potential migration push factor to other regions in the country. Finally, we discuss how the increased vulnerability of some groups, particularly migrants, can be factored into Brazilian public policy and planning.     

The effects of gender on climate change knowledge and concern in the American public

This study tests theoretical arguments about gender differences in scientific knowledge and environmental concern using 8 years of Gallup data on climate change knowledge and concern in the US general public. Contrary to expectations from scientific literacy research, women convey greater assessed scientific knowledge of climate change than do men. Consistent with much existing sociology of science research, women underestimate their climate change knowledge more than do men. Also, women express slightly greater concern about climate change than do men, and this gender divide is not accounted for by differences in key values and beliefs or in the social roles that men and women differentially perform in society. Modest yet enduring gender differences on climate change knowledge and concern within the US general public suggest several avenues for future research, which are explored in the conclusion.     

Population and pavement: population growth and land development in Israel

This research examines land use change in Israel––an intriguing but understudied setting with regard to population–environment dynamics. While Israel is fairly unique with regard to its combined high levels of economic prosperity and high population growth, this case study has relevance for developed countries and regions (like the south and southwest regions of the USA) which must balance population growth and urban development with open space conservation for ecosystem services and biological diversity. The population–land development relationship is investigated during the period from 1961 to 1995 at three spatial scales: national, regional (six districts), and local (40 localities). There is a positive correlation between population growth and land development rates at the national scale, and while remaining positive, the strength of the relationship varies greatly at regional and local scales. The variation in population–land use dynamics across scales is used to garner insight as to the importance of geography, policy and historical settlement patterns.     

Instability,investment, disasters,and demography: natural disasters and fertility in Italy (1820–1962) and Japan (1671–1965)

This article examines whether natural disasters affect fertility—a topic little explored but of policy importance given relevance to policies regarding disaster insurance, foreign aid, and the environment. The identification strategy uses historic regional data to exploit natural variation within each of two countries: one European country—Italy (1820–1962), and one Asian country—Japan (1671–1965). The choice of study settings allows consideration of Jones’ (The European miracle, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1981) theory that preindustrial differences in income and population between Asia and Europe resulted from the fertility response to different environmental risk profiles. According to the results, short-run instability, particularly that arising from the natural environment, appears to be associated with a decrease in fertility—thereby suggesting that environmental shocks and economic volatility are associated with a decrease in investment in the population size of future generations. The results also show that, contrary to Jones’ (The European miracle, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1981) theory, differences in fertility between Italy and Japan cannot be explained away by disaster proneness alone. Research on the effects of natural disasters may enable social scientists and environmentalists alike to better predict the potential effects of the increase in natural disasters that may result from global climate change.     

Teaching Business Demography Using Case Studies

Many faculty members consider using case studies but not all end up using them. We provide a brief review of what cases are intended to do and identify three ways in which they can be used. We then use an example to illustrate how we have used the case study method in teaching business demography. Among other benefits, we note that the case studies method not only encourages the acquisition of skills by students, but can be used to promote “deep structure learning,” an approach naturally accommodates other features associated with the case studies method—the development of critical thinking skills, the use of real world problems, the emphasis of concepts over mechanics, writing and presentation skills, active cooperative learning and the “worthwhileness” of a course. As noted by others, we understand the limitations of the case study method. However, given its strengths, we believe it has a place in the instructional toolbox for courses in business demography. The fact that courses we teach is a testament to our perceived efficacy of this tool.     

New Directions in the Development of Population Estimates in the United States?

The advent of a continuously updated Master Area File (MAF) following the 2000 census represents an information resource that can be tapped for purposes of developing timely, cost-effective, and precise population estimates for even the smallest of geographical units (e.g., census blocks). We argue that the MAF can be enhanced (EMAF) for these purposes. In support of our argument we describe a set of activities needed to develop EMAF, each of which is well within the current capabilities of the U.S. Census Bureau and discuss various costs and benefits of each. We also describe how EMAF would provide population estimates containing a wide range of demographic (e.g., age, race, and sex) and socio-economic characteristics (e.g., educational attainment, income, and employment). As such, it could largely negate and eliminate the need for many of the traditional demographic methods of population estimation and possibly reduce the number of sample surveys. We identify important challenges that must be surmounted in order to realize EMAF and make suggestions for doing so. We conclude by noting that the idea of the EMAF could be of interest to other countries with MAF files and strong administrative records systems that, like the United States, are facing the challenge of producing good population information in the face of increasing census costs.     

The Migrant–Nonmigrant Differentials in Prenatal Care Utilization: Evidence from Indonesia

Using the 2000 wave of Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS3), this study attempts to further complement studies that seek to analyze the relationship between migration and prenatal care utilization in Indonesia. The major conclusion from the multilevel logistic regression suggests that migrants are less likely than non-migrants to seek prenatal care in a public or private hospital but are more likely than non-migrants to initiate prenatal care in their first trimester and to receive four or more prenatal visits. Several measures of child, woman, household and community characteristics are also significant predictors of the location, timing and frequency of prenatal care. It is evident that the design of effective and efficient policies requires a more comprehensive knowledge of the determinants of migration and maternal healthcare services utilization. The assessment of whether the extent of the location, timing and frequency of prenatal care differs between migrants and non-migrants would have important policy implications for both individuals and society at large.     

Individual and Contextual Correlates of Economic Difficulties in Old Age in Europe

With data drawn from the second public release version of the “Survey of Health, Aging and Retirement in Europe” (SHARE), we scrutinize individual and contextual (regional) correlates of economic difficulties among older Europeans, aged 65 or more. A logistic multi-level regression model with random intercept shows that the risk of being relatively poor varies considerably among the aged. We verified that the factors affecting poverty in each area are not merely the weighted sum of the effect of the more disadvantaged people within the same area, which also exists: poverty appears also significantly influenced by the specific context of residence.     

Citizenship Norms in Eastern Europe

Research on Eastern Europe stresses the weakness of its civil society and the lack of political and social involvement, neglecting the question: What do people themselves think it means to be a good citizen? This study looks at citizens’ definitions of good citizenship in Poland, Slovenia, the Czech Republic and Hungary, using 2002 European Social Survey data. We investigate mean levels of civic mindedness in these countries and perform regression analyses to investigate whether factors traditionally associated with civic and political participation are also correlated with citizenship norms across Eastern Europe. We show that mean levels of civic mindedness differ significantly across the four Eastern European countries. We find some support for theories on civic and political participation when explaining norms of citizenship, but also demonstrate that individual-level characteristics are differently related to citizenship norms across the countries of our study. Hence, our findings show that Eastern Europe is not a monolithic and homogeneous bloc, underscoring the importance of taking the specificities of countries into account.     

Environmental Influences on Well-Being: A Dyadic Latent Panel Analysis of Spousal Similarity

This article uses dyadic latent panel analysis (DLPA) to examine environmental influences on well-being. DLPA requires longitudinal dyadic data. It decomposes the observed variance of both members of a dyad into a trait, state, and an error component. Furthermore, state variance is decomposed into initial and new state variance. Total observed similarity between members of a dyad is decomposed into trait similarity, initial state similarity, new state similarity, and error similarity. Dyadic similarity in new state variance reveals that both members of a dyad change in the same direction, which is a strong indication of environmental effects. DLPA is used to examine environmental influences on life satisfaction and domain satisfaction based on 22 annual assessments of married couples in the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (N’s = 607–740). The results show high similarity in new state variance for life satisfaction and objectively identical domains (household income, housing), and less similarity for objectively less similar domains (recreation, health). This finding provides strong evidence for environmental influences on well-being. In addition, the results show high trait similarity. The implications of the latter finding for interpretation of behavioral genetics studies of well-being are discussed.