Prediction of temporally aggregated systems involving both stock and flow variables

Two predictors for a system of temporally aggregated variables are discussed. One predictor is based on the disaggregated variables whereas the other one uses only information contained in the aggregates. In contrast to similar research on the topic it is explicity assumed that the system involves both stock and flow variables. It is shown that some results obtained by treating the two types of variables separately break down if the system contains both. In particular, equality of the two predictors under investigation holds only under extremely restrictive conditions in the latter case. The paper was presented at the European Meeting of the Econometric Society 1988 in Bologna.     

Wer erbt Mehr? Erbschaften, Sozialstruktur und Alterssicherung

How do inheritances affect social structure, wealth formation, and provision for old age? Who benefits the most from inheritances? We analyse these questions based on the 2001 wave of the Socio-Economic Panel, which gives information on the deceased, and on the type, time, chance, and amount of the inheritance. Our findings confirm the theoretical hypotheses in general. Inheritance research is intergenerational research: most inheritances come from parents and benefit the recipients in the second half of their lives. However, the chances of receiving an inheritance and amounts inherited are distributed very unevenly. West Germans inherit significantly more frequently and larger amounts than East Germans due to the continuing effects of conditions in the former GDR. Foreigners have particularly low chances of receiving an inheritance. Thus, provision for old age through inheritance is limited mainly to specific groups of people. The most advantaged groups are the highly educated classes, which already receive higher (retirement) income.     

A bayesian test for a two-way contingency table using independence priors

One method of testing for independence in a two-way table is based on the Bayes factor, the ratio of the likelihoods under the independence hypothesis H and the alternative hypothesis H. The main difficulty in this approach is the specification of prior distributions on the composite hypotheses H and H. A new Bayesian test statistic is constructed by using a prior distribution on H that is concentrated about the “independence surface” H. Approximations are proposed which simplify the computation of the test statistic. The values of the Bayes factor are compared with values of statistics proposed by Gunel and Dickey (1974), Good and Crook (1987), and Spiegelhalter and Smith (1982) for a number of two-way tables. This investigation suggests a strong relationship between the new statistic and the p-value.     

Mortality of American Troops in the Iraq War

We estimate the death rate of United States troops deployed to Iraq from the beginning of the US invasion through 30 September 2006. Eighty percent of the deaths in Iraq were combat‐related. The death rate in Iraq is lower than that of the civilian population of the United States but substantially higher than that of young adults. It is much lower than the death rate of US troops in Vietnam, in part because a much smaller fraction die among those wounded in Iraq. We also estimate relative mortality levels for US troops according to numerous demographic variables through 30 November 2006. The risk of death in Iraq per deployment is shown to be highest for Marines; Naval and Air Force personnel in Iraq have lower death rates than the civilian population of comparable age. Other categories with above‐average mortality in Iraq are enlisted troops, males, younger persons, and Hispanics.     

Kurtosis and spread

An increase in kurtosis is achieved through the location- and scale-free movement of probability mass from the “shoulders” of a distribution into its centre and tails. We introduce a coherent structure of ordering and measures, requiring no symmetry assumption, that represent different formalizations of this movement. For this purpose spread functions and spread-spread plots are defined. The orderings impose growth patterns on the spread-spread plot of the distributions involved, and the weakest involve both a specific scale-matching technique and placement of “shoulders”. The role of existing kurtosis orderings and measures in this general context is identified and examples discussed throughout.     

The impact of involuntary job loss on those disabled by society: a pilot study to encourage effective participation

Over half of the people who become disabled whilst employed are thought to be pressured into leaving their job. This study investigates the experience of involuntary retirement/redundancy due to disability. Three researchers who had all experienced such involuntary job loss were trained to conduct the research. Semi-structured interviews were designed and conducted by disabled researchers. The training of the researchers enabled them to successfully conduct a research project. The results of the project show the impact of involuntary job loss due to disability to be considerable. This study would suggest that government reforms to create new opportunities for disabled people of a working age are well overdue. Although there were some problems experienced with the amount of training required and the lack of objectivity, training disabled researchers to conduct research proved to be a valuable experience for both the researchers and the facilitators.     

Privatization—A cure for all ills?

Before a troubled State-owned company can be privatized, the management dimension must be examined. The privatization strategy must be closely linked with the overall business strategy to ensure that the opportunities afforded by the operation provide for long-term profit enhancement. The logic behind the state-owned enterprise is described and the objectives of privatization, the pros and cons, are analysed.     

The O. J. Simpson Trial: Challenges to Science and Society

The O. J. Simpson murder and civil trials riveted the nation and much of the world for more than two years. Of tremendous scientific and public interest was the gulf in attitudes, perceptions, and reactions to the not guilty verdict at the criminal trial. The collection of articles in this issue of The Journal of Social Issues converged on the idea that race is an inadequate explanatory variable in understanding these differences in attitudes, perceptions, and reactions. Instead, race is a marker for a variety of cultural and experiential issues that affect cognitive, affective, and behavioral processes. This concluding article debunks simplistic ideas of race and points to the broader problems of racism and discrimination, criminal injustice, and violence in social relations. The article concludes with suggestions for future research and a call for a broader transformation in societal institutions that affect the quality of social relations.