The new academic health center hybrids: part business, part academic

Academic health centers have flourished since the 1960s and even managed to survive the shift toward prospective payment. But in their current quest to expand the number of managed care patients and compete with the private sector, they often must price services below cost and reduce the number of faculty members and other personnel. Unless their prices are competitive, managed care companies will not do business with them. AHCs that cannot compete find they are overbedded, underused, and in turmoil. This article explores what successful AHCs are doing to stay healthy in the managed care era.     

Next-generation informatics. A new picture of quality medicine

It's up to the physician executive to make an informed choice when selecting a "next-generation" information system. Look for systems that truly integrate (not merely interface) managed care components, clinical capabilities, and other features in a model that mimics the workflow of an actual practice. Take the time to learn about the technology. Consider how a vendor's product will work at every point within your organization. Seven critical features that physician executives should consider in their decision-making are described.     

Demographic transition theory

Demography is a science short on theory, rich in quantification. Nevertheless, demography has produced one of the best documented generalizations in the social sciences: the demographic transition. What is the demographic transition? Stripped to its essentials it is the theory that societies progress from a pre-modern regime of high fertility and high mortality to a post-modern regime of low fertility and low mortality. The cause of the transition has been sought in the reduction of the death rate by controlling epidemic and contagious diseases. Then, with modernization, children become more costly. Cultural changes weaken the importance of children. The increasing empowerment of women to make their own reproductive decisions leads to smaller families. Thus there is a change in values, emphasizing the quality of children rather than their quantity. In short, the fertility transition is becoming universal phenomenon, in which every country may be placed on a continuum of progress in the transition.     

Bequests as a heir "disciple device."

This paper develops a model ofinter vivos gifts and bequests in a setting of moral hazard and adverse selection. Altruistic parents do not perfectly know how much effort their children make to earn their living, nor do they know their true level of ability.Inter vivos gifts take place prior to the realization of the children's earnings whereas at the moment of bequests, parents do observe them. We show that an optimal transfer policy generally uses a mix ofinter vivos gifts — deemed as more efficient — and bequests — deemed as more redistributive.We are thankful to Allessandro Cigno, Jacques Cremer, Claude d Aspremont and anonymous referees for their comments.Responsible editor: Alessandro Cigno     

Batch sampling to improve power in a community trial. Experience from the Pawtucket Heart Health Program

Experiments involving large social units, such as schools, work sites, or whole cities, are commonly limited in statistical power because the number of randomized units is small, leaving few degrees of freedom for residual (between-unit) error. The authors describe a method for increasing residual degrees of freedom in a community experiment without substantially increasing cost or difficulty. In brief, they propose that the experimental units should be divided into random subsamples (batches). Batch sampling can improve statistical power if the community endpoint means are stable over time or if their temporal variation is comparable in period to the batch-sampling schedule. The authors demonstrate the theoretical advantages of the batch system and illustrate its use with data from the Pawtucket Heart Health Program, in which such a design was implemented.     

Mandatory seat belt laws in the states. A study of fatal and severe occupant injuries

This study examines the impact of mandatory seat belt laws on fatal and incapacitating injury rates in the states. Annual data for all 50 states for the period 1975-1991 are used. Pooled time series analysis is employed. The general conclusion that emerges from this analysis is that seat belt laws significantly impact state fatal injury rates. Primary enforcement and all-seat coverage provisions appear to be particularly effective in reducing fatality rates.     

Matching anonymous pre-posttests using subject-generated information

Sensitive research issues call for anonymous questionnaires. This makes accurately matching pretests with posttests difficult or impossible. Various subject-generated coding schemes have been developed, but their accuracy has been unknown. This anonymous study, with 745 students, used subject-generated coding to match pretests with posttests. The matching was verified for accuracy with the use of a collateral, anonymous, sticker identification system. The coding system was able to accurately match 75.2% of all the pretest-posttest pairs. An additional 22.1% of the pairs were left unmatched and only 2.7% were matched incorrectly. Subject-generated coding systems can be very effective where confidentiality is important to protect.     

The changing meaning of cohabitation and marriage

"In the Netherlands, the social meaning of both marriage and cohabitation has changed. Cohabitation started as an alternative way of living, developed into a temporary phase before marriage, and finally became a strategy for moving into a union gradually....This article addresses the question whether or not individual past and current life-course experiences become increasingly important in explaining the differentiation of entry into marriage across female birth cohorts, and yet become decreasingly important in explaining the differentiation of entry into cohabitation across female birth cohorts. This question is examined using a non-proportional hazard model. Empirical evidence supports this hypothesis strongly, in that both past determinants such as family size or religion and current life-course determinants such as work or education change in their impact on cohabitation and marriage across birth cohorts."     

The health status of elderly people and the new direction of health services

The projected increase of people in Japan aged 75 years and older in the years to come implies the increase of the disabled elderly. Thus, the core of societal preparation for the aging of the population is generally considered to be the expansion of services for the disabled elderly. However, gerontological studies on the health status of the elderly conducted in Japan show that the prevalence of disability is quite low and even decreasing. Relative to the services for the disabled elderly, preventive services for the healthy elderly have long been overlooked. In 1994, the Metropolitan Tokyo Government organized a task force to develop a new health education program as the preventive health service for the healthy urban elderly. A preliminary plan outlining the health education program--consisting of propagation with a booklet, on-the-job training of practitioners, and development of new curricula and teaching materials--was proposed by the authors for discussion within the task force. Although the inquiry has just begun and the plan is still nascent, it seems adequate to fit the needs for preventive health services in the near future.     

Trends in divorce and marriage around the world

"A study of 27 [developed] nations indicated that divorce rates rose in 25 of the nations from 1950 to 1985 while marriage rates declined in 22 of the nations. Nations with higher divorce rates in 1950 had steeper increases in the divorce rate subsequently, supporting a critical-mass hypothesis."