A simple recursive estimation method for linear regression models with AR(p) disturbances

An exact transformation that reduces the AR(p) process into white noise is well known in statistics, see Fuller (1976). However, practitioners still use and econometric textbooks still recommend the Cochrane-Orcutt procedure for p>2, see Greene (1990). This paper derives an alternative exact transformation for the AR(p) process which is computationally simple. Based on this transformation, a GLS estimator is proposed, requiring only least squares regressions and recursive computations. This is illustrated for the AR(3) case.     

The effect of lawyers on non-discipline/discharge arbitration decisions

Both labor and management often have a lawyer present their case at an arbitration hearing. This paper investigates whether the probability of obtaining a favorable arbitration outcome was related to the use of legal counsel. An analysis of 1,284 Canadian non-discipline/discharge cases revealed that a party was more likely to receive a favorable award when it had legal representation and the other side did not. However, there was no difference in win rates when the outcomes of cases in which both parties used lawyers were compared with those in which neither side was represented by legal counsel. Support for this research was provided by a Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council/Saint Mary’s University Matching Grant. The excellent research assistance of Nancy Canavan is gratefully acknowledged.     

ASYMPTOTIC EXPANSIONS APPLIED TO F-TEST CRITERIA

Using asymptotic expansions of the Kummer hypergeometric function, the sequential. F-test criterion is evaluated asymptotically in terms of the sample size. The continuation region inequalities for the test are inverted and expressed in terms of known test criteria. A rapidly converging algorithm for carrying out the sequential procedure is provided. This makes the F-test easier for the practitioner to use. Almost sure finite termination of the sequential. F-test is asserted by appealing to the continuation inequalities and a heuristic asymptotic expansion of the test criterion. Average stopping times of the sequential procedure for a variety of population means and population number configurations are tabulated. The computer symbolic manipulation program MAPLE was used to derive some formulae.     

The evolving concept of "retirement": Looking forward to the year 2050

Economic growth, more than demography, will determine the nature of future retirement. With growth has come a steady increase in retirement years. Now, however, there is increasing interest in "rolling back" these gains. Alternatively, some scholars propose a different framework for evaluating "work" late in life — one that includes altruism, citizenship, stewardship, creativity, and the search for faith. Attitudes toward retirement in the future are likely to move sharply away from the simplistic view of all work before retirement and no work after. Some of the resulting changes we can expect to see are more part-time work, expanded "citizen participation," and an older workforce with more training and retraining.     

Landowners’ perspectives on the rural future and the role of forests across Europe

Contemporary changes in rural Europe have been characterised by the contrasting terms of rural modernisation and productivism versus restructuring and post-productivism. This study investigates how different categories of owners of farm and/or forestland in 16 case study areas in eight European countries perceive future development. Landowners’ prospects for change are investigated on both the locality and enterprise level. Special attention is given to the role of forestry as a potential future development perspective. The results reveal that both restructuring and modernisation perspectives are important to many landowners. Moreover, a polarisation seems to be developing between a minority of full-time farmers with progressive farming prospects and the vast majority of landowners with declining prospects or little dependency on primary production. More importantly, the research reveals a third employment perspective, which did not have any specific content apart from the social security of having employment opportunities in the locality. Also at the enterprise level, farmers anticipate both restructuring and modernisation practices, even on the very same property. The study proves that it is not only part-time, hobby and retired farmers that are engaged in “restructuring” activities, but also full-time farmers. As regards the role of forests, the majority of landowners do not interpret forests in an economic development context, but as green infrastructure important to the local quality of life. It can be concluded that forests are closely related to restructuring thinking among landowners. Future perspectives differ from one European rural area to another, dependent on local conditions and problems. More importantly, however, this research reveals that modernisation–restructuring thoughts and practices of landowners are manifold and heterogeneous in all types of rural areas across Europe.     

FINANCIAL INNOVATION, PRICE SMOOTHING, AND MONETARY POLICY

This paper examines an unregulated transaction services market that is subject to financial innovation in an economy that experiences aggregate supply and demand shocks. The availability of this unregulated market to transactors smooths the price response to these shocks. However, financial innovations act as money supply shocks that increase price disturbances. If there is persistence in the real aggregate supply shocks and in the rate of adoption of financial innovations, then the central bank can forecast some portion of the changes in transaction requirements that accompany these shocks and damp the residual variation in prices by accommodating these anticipated needs.