Estimating multivariate random effects without replication

This paper considers the estimation of multivariate random effects that are measured with error, but for which there are no replications. Using structural simplification of the correlation of the data, separate estimates are generated for the covariance of the random effects and the covariance of the error. An estimator of the random effects based on a truncated eigen structure is defined, and matrix mean squared error and its trace (risk) are analyzed, with comparison to the maximum likelihood estimator (m.l.e) and also to the Stein-like estimator of Efron and Morris (1972). It is shown that the estimator has risk which is smaller than the risk of the maximum likelihood estimator and the Efron-Morris estimator in most cases.     

Research Methodology and Community Participation: A Decade of Indigenous Social Science Research in Canada

Those engaged in community‐based participatory research often comment on tensions between social scientific and community values, yet little systematic evidence exists about the relationship between social science research methodologies and community participation. We analyze nearly 500 peer‐reviewed articles published between 2005 and 2015 on Indigenous issues in Canada, where policies encourage participatory research methods with disempowered groups. We find that research that includes Indigenous participation is more likely to include Indigenous epistemologies and participatory evidence sources and analysis methods. We also find that peer‐reviewed research involving Indigenous participants often fails to go beyond minimum levels of consultation required by policies.     

Application of the Precautionary Principle by Senior Policy Officials: Results of a Canadian Survey

Though use of the controversial precautionary principle in risk management has increasingly been recommended as a guide for the construction of public policy in Canada and elsewhere, there are few data available characterizing its use in risk management by senior public policymakers. Using established survey methodology we sought to investigate the perceptions and terms of application of the precautionary principle in this important subset of individuals. A total of 240 surveys were sent out to seven departments or agencies in the Canadian government. The overall survey response rate was 26.6%, and our findings need to be interpreted in the context of possible responder bias. Of respondents, the overwhelming majority perceived the precautionary principle and the management of risk as complementary, and endorsed a role for the precautionary principle as a general guideline for all risk management decisions. However, 25% of respondents responded that the lack of clarity of the definition of the principle was a limitation to its effective use. The majority of respondents viewed their own level of understanding of the precautionary principle as moderate. Risk managers appeared to favor an interpretation of the precautionary principle that was based on the seriousness and irreversibility of the threat of damage, and did not endorse as strongly the need for cost effectiveness in the measures taken as a precaution against such threats. In contrast with its perceived role as a general guideline, the application of the precautionary principle by respondents was highly variable, with >60% of respondents reporting using the precautionary principle in one-quarter or less of all risk management decisions. Several factors influenced whether the precautionary principle was applied with the perceived seriousness of the threat being considered the most influential factor. The overwhelming majority of risk managers felt that "preponderance of evidence" was the level of evidence required for precautionary action to be instituted against a serious negative event. Overall, the majority of respondents viewed the precautionary principle as having a significant and positive impact on risk management decisions. Importantly, respondents endorsed a net result of more good than harm to society when the precautionary principle was applied to the management of risk.     

The origin of white supremacy in South Africa: An interpretation

White supremacy in South Africa had its beginning in the initial Dutch colonial settlement of the Cape. The first Dutch settlers brought with them a vision of colonialism in which Europeans were superior to non‐Europeans, and could behave in colonies in ways that were not tolerated at home. The colonial idea of racial slavery corrupted early Cape officials before there were any slaves, and made the introduction of slavery inevitable. Marriages between white men and non‐European women were tolerated at the Cape as elsewhere in the Dutch colonial realm, but raciallymixed couples were not welcome in the Netherlands. The racial exclusivity of the Dutch home community gained ground at the Cape as its European settlers began to see themselves as a home community away from home, and sought to emulate home standards in so far as this was practicable in an overseas colonial setting.     

Job Mobility of Chippewa and Poor White

Abstract

Using a 1978 national Gallup poll, we test the hypothesis that social marginality is a predictor of belief in paranormal phenomena. Being female and not being married generally correlate as hypothesized with paranormal belief, but age, low education, being Black, and being unemployed generally do not. The marginality hypothesis has a questionable theoretical foundation and fails to predict a variety of beliefs consistently.     

What is Most Important: Social Factors, Health Selection, and Adolescent Educational Achievement

This paper explores the relative importance of social factors and health measures in predicting educational achievement in early and late adolescence using population-based administrative data. The sample was made up of 41,943 children born in Manitoba, Canada between 1982 and 1989 and remaining in the province until age 18. Multilevel modeling nests each individual (level 1) within a family (level 2) residing within a neighborhood (level 3). Most important in predicting adolescent achievement were a broad socioeconomic status index (and a narrower measure of household income), being on social assistance, mother’s age at first birth, gender, residential mobility, the presence of ADHD/Conduct disorders, and measures of family functioning (child taken into care or offered protection services and family structure history). Family size, birth order, and newborn characteristics (birthweight, APGAR, gestational age) were statistically significant but of little importance in explaining the outcomes. Both examining regression coefficients and systematically omitting variables showed social factors (often emphasized by epidemiologists) to have markedly greater effects than the combination of health measures (often stressed by economists) in predicting achievement. However, mental health in childhood is identified as among the important predictors. Record linkage across population datasets from health, education, and family services ministries allowed: tracking health and educational attainment at different times in a child’s life, following a large number of cases across childhood, considerable sensitivity testing, controlling for unmeasured family and neighborhood effects, generating an extensive list of predictors, estimating effect sizes, and comparing Manitoba results with those of well-known American studies.