A dynamic analysis of stock markets using a hidden Markov model

This paper proposes a framework to detect financial crises, pinpoint the end of a crisis in stock markets and support investment decision-making processes. This proposal is based on a hidden Markov model (HMM) and allows for a specific focus on conditional mean returns. By analysing weekly changes in the US stock market indexes over a period of 20 years, this study obtains an accurate detection of stable and turmoil periods and a probabilistic measure of switching between different stock market conditions. The results contribute to the discussion of the capabilities of Markov-switching models of analysing stock market behaviour. In particular, we find evidence that HMM outperforms threshold GARCH model with Student-t innovations both in-sample and out-of-sample, giving financial operators some appealing investment strategies.     

Behaviour and the life cycle: a consideration of the role of longitudinal time use studies

This paper discusses the application of time use data for the study of behavioural change over the life cycle. The longitudinal design reduces the need for complex statistical controls and sample matching procedures and simplifies the problem of distinguishing period effects from cohort and development effects.The data are based upon 24 hour time diaries of a panel of 453 persons in Halifax, Canada who were interviewed on the same day of the week in the Fall of both 1971 and 1981. Data for each gender are presented illustrative of the kinds of changes in time use which might be associated with aging or with changes in occupational, financial, educational, or familial status. Cross-sectional time use data from different periods can be used in conjunction with the longitudinal time use data to differentiate between behavioural change based upon maturation or other individual changes and that deriving from a broader base of cultural change.     

Two Approaches to Seeing People with Disabilities

This study tests the possibility that attitudes to people with disabilities can be divided into two types: attitudes at the societal level and attitudes at the personal level. This distinction was made with the aim of clarifying ambiguities from previous research. One test of the proposed distinction rests on the assumption that personal contact with people with disabilities will influence attitudes at the personal level but not at the societal level. Sixty subjects were assigned to either a control group or intervention groups which experienced interventions involving a person with a disability. The attitudes of all subjects were measured one month before and at the time of the intervention. Data on prior contact were also collected. The results, which supported the two level approach, are discussed in terms of their implications for improving attitudes to people with disabilities.     

Federal Work‐Study Student Perceptions of Career Readiness

University programming seeks to facilitate career development in a variety of ways. Federal Work‐Study (FWS) participation, similar to internships, provides practical experience and potential career development benefits. Over 3 academic years (2016–2019), 1,752 Qualtrics surveys were completed by work‐study students (77% female, 55% White) at the end of each academic year at one university. Three years of data suggest a positive influence of FWS on the growth of National Association of Colleges and Employers career readiness competencies. These data suggest that postsecondary education can construct FWS opportunities with intentional career development goals. Future research should examine a range of career development outcomes in quasi‐experimental designs and unpack the mechanisms within FWS (e.g., supervisor training, matching work assignment to career aspirations) that maximize career growth.     

Organizing Gender? Looking at Metaphors as Frames of Meaning in Gender/Organizational Texts

This article examines the ways in which the writing of gender and organizational theory has made use of metaphors to frame understanding about gender and gender relations. Key examples of different theoretical approaches to explaining gender difference within organizations are analysed as texts, to explore the ways in which rhetorical devices play a crucial role in constructing knowledges about women, men, and organizational life. In particular, three metaphors are uncovered: those of space, time and the sexual body. These have important connections with metaphors embedded in ‘mainstream’ (masculinist) organizational theory and are thus shown to construct our understanding of gender in particular, and somewhat limited, ways. However, in the second half of the article, alternative significations of these metaphors are explored. These suggest other readings which may open up the ways in which women, men and gender relations are framed within gender/organizational theoretical texts.     

Children's attitudes to parents', teachers' and employers' perceptions of term‐time employment

This article is concerned with examining working children's perceptions of how adults in a range of different settings view their employment. In particular, the article explores how participation in the labour market influences adult‐child relationships within the home, at school and at work. Children interact with adults across a variety of different spheres. Dependence and independence permeate children's relationships with adults in different social settings. Entry to the labour market and access to earnings promotes responsibility among children and encourages self‐reliance. The purpose of the article is to assess the extent to which these traits affect children's interaction with adults within and across the social spaces of the home, school and place of employment. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Methodology for Integrating Tsunami Inundation Modelling into Land Use Planning in New Zealand

Guidance has been produced for land use planners and decision-makers on how tsunami inundation modelling can be included into land use planning. The process of developing the guideline included exploring the difficulties in integrating physical science models into land use planning with a focus on tsunami. These difficulties included addressing uncertainty and reconciling planners' needs with the capability of the modellers. The guidance was based on two key questions. (1) How can tsunami modelling be incorporated into land use planning? (2) What information do planners need from modellers to improve planning and policy for tsunami? The purpose of this paper is to provide a brief overview of the guideline, with the aim of assisting others in producing similar guidance for implementing tsunami modelling into land use planning. The guideline includes tsunami basics, a decision tree for including tsunami risk into land use planning, which forms the basis of the guideline.     

“Talking Emotions”: Gender Differences in a Variety of Conversational Contexts

Based on numerous studies demonstrating gender differences in both language and emotions, we investigated whether women are more verbally expressive of their feelings than men. Data from eleven samples, based on four methods of data collection (observations, “hidden” observations, interviews, and content analysis), were analyzed as to whether women used more emotional words than men. In each of the eleven samples, women used significantly more emotional words. The findings relate to two theoretical issues in the literature: “dominance” versus “cultural” perspective of gender and language and the importance of context in analyzing gender differences in language.