Why Is Turnout Down?

The monotonic decline in turnout in presidential elections since1960 is the subject of this analysis of survey data. After somecommon explanations for this decline were rejected, it was discoveredthat the decline occurred mainly among low-income and low-educationwhites. Two explanatory hypotheses were examined, but appropriatedata for testing themwere unavailable; however, in the 1970snonvoters were more likely than voters at all income levelsto express dissatisfaction with the political system. Nonvotingwhites are not always a Democratic group, and their voting behavioris unpredictable over time. Their failure to vote may have anespecially significant impact on Democratic party policies,and implies that palliatives like reform of voter registrationlaws may not have the desired effect.     

Context and Contiguity in Survey Questionnaires

Previous experiments have shown an order effect for two adjacentitems, one concerning the admittance of American reporters toRussia and the other concerning the admittance of Communistreporters to the U.S. The experiment reported here found thatthis effect remained when the two items were separated by aseries of 17 other unrelated questions.     

The Effects of Newspaper Endorsements onElection Outcomes:A Case Study

Current Research This section of POQ is reserved for brief reportsof research in progress, discussions of unsolved problems, methodologicalstudies, and public opinion data not extensively analyzed orinterpreted. Succinct case histories are welcomed, as well ashypotheses and insights that may be useful to other studentsof public opinion. Usually, material in this section is shorter,more informal, and more tentative than in preceding pages.     

DEFICITS, POLITICS AND MONEY GROWTH

We examine the linkage between Federal deficits and money growth by allowing the Fed's response to any given deficit to vary systematically according to how the deficit is generated and the Party affiliation of the current president. In equations for Ml and monetary base growth, the structural deficit is consistently significant and invariant across political changes, while the cyclical component of the deficit (or a direct measure of the business cycle) is significant only during the tenure of Democratic presidents.     

Context Effects on Survey Responses to Questions About Abortion

The proportion of favorable responses to a general questionabout abortion was significantly smaller in an NORC survey thanwere responses to the same item in an SRC survey. We hypothesizedthat questionnaire context was the main source of the difference–inone survey the general item followed a more specific questionabout abortion–and carried out two split-ballot questionorder experiments that provide strong support for the hypothesis.The context effect seems to arise from the generality of theabortion question; the specific question itself showed no changedue to context. Furthermore, there is some evidence that ambivalencetoward the issue of abortion is a factor in the sensitivityof the general question to context. The context effect in theseexperiments is also notable for producing contrast rather thanconsistency between responses to adjacent questions on the sameissue. Implications of the findings for the study of socialchange are emphasized.     

MEDIAN VOTERS OR BUDGET MAXIMIZERS: EVIDENCE FROM SCHOOL EXPENDITURE REFERENDA

Some readers may have found these results of greater interest were we able to confirm the directional hypotheses of the certainty setter model in addition to finding that spending is "related" to the reversion – the much weaker prediction of the uncertainty model. Yet the failure of the certainty
When base elections were optional, their infrequent occurrence might be expected under either a median voter or a setter model. For those districts that did hold base elections, the observations appear consistent with a setter model, but are either inexplicable by or inconsistent with a median voter model. Finally, both (a) the relationship between the number of budget elections and the presence of base elections, and (b) the outcome of mandatory base elections in 1978 provide a set of observations that are challenging to either model.
A similar challenge was posed by our investigation of budget elections when we called attention to the inadequacy of static, full information models. Rather than resolving the question of the simple setter model against the simple median voter model, our results indicate that both may be inappropriate and that endeavors dealing with complexities omitted here are warranted.     

Social Process, Space Usage: Reflections on Socialisation in Homes for Children

Summary This paper analyses the links between social processes and spaceusage through an examination of socialization and patterns ofspace use in local authority homes for children. Concepts of’family group‘ and ’responsibility‘are discussed using data from a participant observation studyas a basis, drawing attention to the relationship between socialpower and meanings attributed to architectural space.     

Half a Century of Change in Adolescent Attitudes:Replication of a Middletown Surrey by the Lynds

Abstract Twenty attitude items administered by Robert and HelenLynd to the entire high school population of Middletownin 1924were included verbatim or with very minor changes of wordingin an instrument we administered to the entire high school populationof the same community in 1977. The statements elicited studentattitudes about religion, international affairs, patriotism,social justice, civil rights, and public information sources.Although there were significant changes, some of the attitudesof the earlier period have persisted with remarkable tenacity.