Optimal Mandates and the Welfare Cost of Asymmetric Information: Evidence From the U.K. Annuity Market

Much of the extensive empirical literature on insurance markets has focused on whether adverse selection can be detected. Once detected, however, there has been little attempt to quantify its welfare cost or to assess whether and what potential government interventions may reduce these costs. To do so, we develop a model of annuity contract choice and estimate it using data from the U.K. annuity market. The model allows for private information about mortality risk as well as heterogeneity in preferences over different contract options. We focus on the choice of length of guarantee among individuals who are required to buy annuities. The results suggest that asymmetric information along the guarantee margin reduces welfare relative to a first‐best symmetric information benchmark by about £127 million per year or about 2 percent of annuitized wealth. We also find that by requiring that individuals choose the longest guarantee period allowed, mandates could achieve the first‐best allocation. However, we estimate that other mandated guarantee lengths would have detrimental effects on welfare. Since determining the optimal mandate is empirically difficult, our findings suggest that achieving welfare gains through mandatory social insurance may be harder in practice than simple theory may suggest.     

Darling–Erdős limit results for change-point detection in panel data

We wish to test the null hypothesis if the means of N panels remain the same during the observation period of length T. A quasi-likelihood argument leads to self-normalized statistics whose limit distribution under the null hypothesis is double exponential. The main results are derived assuming that the each panel is based on independent observations and then extended to linear processes. The proofs are based on an approximation of the sum of squared CUSUM processes using the Skorokhod embedding scheme. A simulation study illustrates that our results can be used in case of small and moderate N and T. We apply our results to detect change in the “corruption index”.     

From Hospital to Home with NDIS Funded Support: Examining Participant Pathway Timeframes Against Discharge Expectations

ABSTRACT

For patients with disability who require funded supports to leave hospital, the introduction of the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) represents opportunity and challenges. At a time of major reform, timely and supported discharge is reliant on overcoming interface complexities. The purpose of this study was to examine the NDIS participant pathway timeframes against discharge expectations for hospitalised adults with spinal cord injury (SCI) or acquired brain injury (ABI) and interrogate delays for the two groups. Administrative data on 54 participants (ABI?=?18 and SCI?=?36) were analysed. Both groups experienced delays to discharge and significant variability in timeframes between NDIS pathway processes and extent of delays. Group differences were identified regarding inefficiencies across the continuum, with type of support a factor to investigate further. This study has uncovered critical points in the NDIS pathway that could impact discharge of participants and where collaboration and adaptive strategies could be targeted to improve processes.

IMPLICATIONS

• Ensuring the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) pathway operates effectively in the hospital setting is critical to the timely discharge of people with complex needs who require funded supports.

• Monitoring implementation of the NDIS in the health setting is important to avert interface problems that impede timely discharge and access.

     

Angela M. Eikenberry,Roseanne M. Mirabella,and Billie Sandberg (eds.), Reframing Nonprofit Organizations: Democracy,Inclusion, and Social Change. Melvin & Leigh

VOLUNTAS: International Journal of Voluntary and Nonprofit Organizations -     

Family factors associated with emerging adults’ human papillomavirus vaccine behavior

Abstract

Objective: The current study examined the role of family influences on the vaccine behavior of emerging adults. Participants: In Spring 2017, we conducted anonymous online surveys of undergraduate students (n?=?608) at a large, public university in the mid-Atlantic. Methods: Logistic regression was used to examine associations between family factors and students’ awareness of the HPV vaccine, vaccine receipt, and vaccine intentions. Family factors included sex communication, religiosity, parental monitoring, family structure, and parents’ birthplace. Results: More comprehensive family sex communication is associated with less uncertainty regarding HPV vaccine receipt and greater likelihood of being already vaccinated. More frequent family religiosity and more parental monitoring are associated with greater likelihood of having decided against vaccination rather than already being vaccinated. Significant gender and racial disparities exist. Conclusion: Further research, policy, and programmatic intervention are needed to reduce disparities and to improve emerging adults’ compliance with HPV vaccine recommendations.     

Diagnostic sequence of cocaine use disorder in relation to other mental health conditions among college students

Abstract

Objective: Cocaine use is increasing. Comorbidities and diagnostic sequencing are needed among college students to inform treatment of cocaine use disorder (CUD). Method: Using electronic medical records from the psychiatric clinic at the student health care center of a large, public university from 2005 to 2015, patients diagnosed with CUD were identified. Their top mental health conditions were identified and assessed to see whether the first diagnosis of these conditions was made (1) before, (2) at the same time as, or (3) after the first diagnosis of CUD. Results: Among the 50 CUD patients, their most common mental health comorbidities were alcohol use disorder, anxiety, depression, and cannabis use disorder. Anxiety and depression were likely to be diagnosed before CUD; alcohol and cannabis use disorders were likely to be diagnosed concurrently with CUD. Conclusion: Diagnostic sequencing can be used to inform screening, workup, and treatment for patients with CUD.     

Mixed Messages: Inconsistent Parental Mediation Indirectly Predicts Teens’ Online Relational Aggression

Although the predictors of off-line relational aggression have been examined in prior work, less is known about the factors that contribute to online relational aggression perpetration and victimization. This study examined parental restrictive and active mediation of teenagers’ social media use as potential predictors of these outcomes. We were particularly interested in understanding whether parental agreement about media rules and the consistency with which mediation was implemented had implications for teens’ social media use, conflict with parents, and experience with online relational aggression. We conducted an online survey of 814 adolescents from the United States (14- to17-year-olds), asking about perceived agreement between parents about media rules, parental mediation styles, the teens’ social media use, and their experiences with online relational aggression. Results showed that parental rule agreement negatively predicted inconsistent parental mediation. Inconsistent parental mediation predicted more adolescent social media use and more parent-teen conflict over media rules, which in turn, predicted both online victimization and perpetration.     

Deviant Peers and Adolescent Risky Behaviors: The Protective Effect of Nonverbal Display of Parental Warmth

This study examines whether nonverbal displays of parents’ warmth during an in‐lab conflict discussion mitigate the links between affiliation with deviant peers and risky behaviors. A sample of 107 youth and their parents participated in a study spanning from mid‐adolescence (T1) to late adolescence (T2). At T1, family members discussed a contentious issue, which was coded for parents’ nonverbal warmth. At T1 and T2, youth reported on their friends’ and their own risky behaviors. Fathers’ warmth moderated each prospective association between deviant peers and risky behaviors. Mothers’ warmth did not emerge as a significant moderator. Girls, in particular, benefitted from fathers’ warmth as a buffer in the trajectory from T1 risky behaviors to T2 risky behaviors and deviant peers.     

Characteristics Associated with Housing Loss Among Youth in a Rapid Rehousing Program

Child and Adolescent Social Work Journal - Housing First programs, such as rapid rehousing, are a well-established approach to addressing homelessness among adults, yet there remains a lack of...     

Modeling time series data with semi-reflective boundaries

Time series data are increasingly common in many areas of the health sciences, and in some instances, may have natural boundaries serving as performance guidelines or as thresholds associated with adverse outcomes. Such boundaries may be labeled as semi-reflective, in that the time series values have an increased chance of returning towards middle levels as the boundaries are approached, but boundaries can still be breached. In this paper we review a model that was previously proposed for such data and we investigate its statistical properties. Specifically, this model consists of a third-order auto-regressive projection component, parameterized as a constrained linear combination of linear, flat, and quadratic trends, and an error term that uses a logistic regression model for its sign. We describe and compare a previously-proposed estimation method with a modified version thereof, using computer simulations, as well as data examples from heart monitoring and from a driving simulator. We find that the two methods tend to give different results, with the modified technique having lower bias and more accurate confidence intervals than the previously-proposed method.