D-efficient window experimental designs

In the paper we present a new method of calculating sampling intervals, so-called windows, allowing an experimenter some flexibility in timing the sample collection, while a minimum required design efficiency for parameter estimation is assured. The method is based on the Equivalence Theorem for D-optimality what makes the length of each window related to the parameter sensitivities. An example of calculating the windows in a pharmacokinetic study is presented. Some other methods of calculating efficient sampling windows are briefly discussed.     

Constituents’ economic interests and senator support for spending limitations

Peltzman [Peltzman, S., 1984. Constituent interest and congressional voting. Journal of Law and Economics 27, 181–210] argues that if constituents’ economic interests have well-defined “winners and losers” and are appropriately measured, then constituents’ economic interests, and not legislator ideology, are the most important determinates of legislator voting. We test Peltzman's theory by examining senatorial voting on three mandated spending limitation bills. We find, consistent with Peltzman's theory, that the ratio of federal spending in a senator's state to federal taxes paid by that state, and not a senator's personal ideology, matters on legislation where there are well-defined economic “winners and losers.” This is particularly important because unlike other constituents’ economic interest measures that only impact a fraction of the constituency, the ratio of federal spending to federal taxes in a state represents the economic interests of all the constituents in a state.     

经济发展、资源功能与中国的配置绩效

经济发展理论高度重视各种资源等劳动对象的开发利用。西方经济学的信仰者由于自身存在的认识论缺陷，难以科学认识劳动对象与经济发展的内在关系，进而也难以科学论述资源在发展理论及其模型中的作用和地位。因此，必须遵循马克思的方法论，从理论为实际的反映入手，建立科学的分析模型，以此指导中国经济发展方式的转变，建立生态与经济相协调的可持续发展的资源及能源支撑体系，调整、优化资源及能源的供给与需求结构。     

Adaptive Management: A Paradigm for Remediation of Public Facilities Following a Terrorist Attack

Terrorist actions are aimed at maximizing harm (health, psychological, economical, and political) through the combined physical impacts of the act and fear. Immediate and effective response to a terrorist act is critical to limit human and environmental harm, effectively restore facility function, and maintain public confidence. Though there have been terrorist attacks in public facilities that we have learned from, overall our experiences in restoration of public facilities following a terrorist attack are limited. Restoration of public facilities following a release of a hazardous material is inherently far more complex than in industrial settings and has many unique technical, economic, social, and political challenges. For example, there may be a great need to quickly restore the facility to full operation and allow public access even though it was not designed for easy or rapid restoration, and critical information is needed for quantitative risk assessment and effective restoration must be anticipated to be incomplete and uncertain. Whereas present planning documents have substantial linearity in their organization, the “adaptive management” paradigm provides a constructive parallel paradigm for restoration of public facilities that anticipates and plans for uncertainty, inefficiencies, and stakeholder participation. Adaptive management grew out of the need to manage and restore natural resources in highly complex and changing environments with limited knowledge about causal relationships and responses to restoration actions. Similarities between natural resource management and restoration of a public facility after a terrorist attack suggest that integration of adaptive management principles explicitly into restoration processes will result in substantially enhanced and flexible responses necessary to meet the uncertainties of potential terrorist attacks.     

Plaid designs for the evaluation of training for medical practitioners

The training of medical practitioners to improve the practitioner/patient relationship may be difficult, as limitations often exist on the choice of patients included in the study. A specific study of this type of training is given. It is proposed that a simple modification and generalization of Yates' plaid-square designs be used. It is shown that a replicated plaid-design incorporates as a special case the criss-cross or strip-plot design. The usefulness of these designs in studies of the training of medical practitioners is illustrated. The basic characteristics of their analysis are outlined.     

Bayesian analysis of elapsed times in continuous‐time Markov chains

The authors consider Bayesian analysis for continuous‐time Markov chain models based on a conditional reference prior. For such models, inference of the elapsed time between chain observations depends heavily on the rate of decay of the prior as the elapsed time increases. Moreover, improper priors on the elapsed time may lead to improper posterior distributions. In addition, an infinitesimal rate matrix also characterizes this class of models. Experts often have good prior knowledge about the parameters of this matrix. The authors show that the use of a proper prior for the rate matrix parameters together with the conditional reference prior for the elapsed time yields a proper posterior distribution. The authors also demonstrate that, when compared to analyses based on priors previously proposed in the literature, a Bayesian analysis on the elapsed time based on the conditional reference prior possesses better frequentist properties. The type of prior thus represents a better default prior choice for estimation software.     

Model Diagnostics for Remote Access Regression Servers

To protect public-use microdata, one approach is not to allow users access to the microdata. Instead, users submit analyses to a remote computer that reports back basic output from the fitted model, such as coefficients and standard errors. To be most useful, this remote server also should provide some way for users to check the fit of their models, without disclosing actual data values. This paper discusses regression diagnostics for remote servers. The proposal is to release synthetic diagnostics—i.e. simulated values of residuals and dependent and independent variables–constructed to mimic the relationships among the real-data residuals and independent variables. Using simulations, it is shown that the proposed synthetic diagnostics can reveal model inadequacies without substantial increase in the risk of disclosures. This approach also can be used to develop remote server diagnostics for generalized linear models.