Migration, fertility, and aging in stable populations

Fertility is below replacement level in all European countries, and population growth is expected to decline in the coming decades. Increasing life expectancy will accentuate concomitant aging of the population. Migration has been seen as a possible means to decelerate aging. In this article, I introduce a stable, open-population model in which cohort net migration is proportional to births. In this case, the migration-fertility trade-off can be studied with particular ease. I show that although migration can increase the growth rate, which tends to make the age distribution younger, it also has an opposite effect because of its typical age pattern. I capture the effect of the age pattern of net migration in a migration-survivor function. The effect of net migration on growth is quantified with data from 17 European countries. I show that some countries already have a level of migration that will lead to stationarity. For other countries with asymptotically declining population, migration still provides opportunities for slowing down aging of the population as a whole.     

On the geometry of multivariate L 1 objective functions

Summary: Two multivariate L ₁ objective functions, namely the k–variate extensions of the classical mean deviation and mean difference, are considered. The duality between the original data vectors and the hyperplanes going through the origin and k – 1 data points is discussed and, consequently, different interesting representations and interpretations of the multivariate mean deviation are introduced. A similar duality is found between the lift data vectors and the hyperplanes going through k data points leading to different representations of the multivariate mean difference. The objective functions are also shown to have interpretations in terms of the centers of facets of the data based zonotopes and lift zonotopes. Moreover, interchanging the roles of the data vectors and the data hyperplanes yields nonparametric measures of (angular) distances between the data vectors as well as between the hyperplanes. Finally, multivariate sign and rank based tests and estimates in the one–sample and several–samples multivariate cases are discussed to illustrate the theory.*The authors wish to thank the referees for valuable comments and suggestions. The research was partially supported by the Academy of Finland.     

Mixed estimation of old‐age mortality

The estimation of the mortality of the “oldest old”; is subject to considerable random error, but important prior information exists that can be used to make the estimates more robust. Mixed estimation is a method of incorporating auxiliary information into the statistical estimation of linear models. We extend the method to cover general maximum likelihood estimation, and show that the mixed estimator can be represented approximately as a weighted average of the purely data based estimator and the auxiliary estimator. The methods can be applied to the analysis of the old‐age mortality via logistic and Poisson regression. A major advantage of the mixed estimator is the simplicity with which it can incorporate partial prior information. Moreover, no special software is needed in the fitting. We show how the targeting methods of Coale and Kisker can be represented as mixed estimation in a natural way that is more flexible than the original proposal. We also derive empirical estimates of the target information based on pooled data from several countries with high quality data. We consider the mortality of Finland at ages 80 +, study the reliability of the evidence of mortality crossover, and derive estimates of life expectancy at age 100.     

Voting paradoxes and referenda

In representational democracies the referenda constitute an additional way for the voters to express their opinions. At the same time they are accompanied by problems of agenda manipulation and interpretation of results. In this context various voting paradoxes and their interrelationships are of considerable interest. In this article particular attention is paid to opinion aggregation paradoxes in referendum institutions. The limits and interrelationships of paradoxes are discussed. Some ways of avoiding paradoxical situations are also outlined. Received: 11 September 1995 / Accepted: 7 January 1997     

One-sample location tests for multilevel data

In this paper, we consider testing the location parameter with multilevel (or hierarchical) data. A general family of weighted test statistics is introduced. This family includes extensions to the case of multilevel data of familiar procedures like the t, the sign and the Wilcoxon signed-rank tests. Under mild assumptions, the test statistics have a null limiting normal distribution which facilitates their use. An investigation of the relative merits of selected members of the family of tests is achieved theoretically by deriving their asymptotic relative efficiency (ARE) and empirically via a simulation study. It is shown that the performance of a test depends on the clusters configurations and on the intracluster correlations. Explicit formulas for optimal weights and a discussion of the impact of omitting a level are provided for 2 and 3-level data. It is shown that using appropriate weights can greatly improve the performance of the tests. Finally, the use of the new tests is illustrated with a real data example.     

A weighted spatial median for clustered data

A weighted spatial median is proposed for the multivariate one-sample location problem with clustered data. Its limiting distribution is derived under mild conditions (no moment assumptions) and it is shown to be multivariate normal. Asymptotic as well as finite sample efficiencies and breakdown properties are considered, and the theoretical results are supplied with illustrative examples. It turns out that there is a potential for meaningful gains in estimation efficiency: the weighted spatial median has superior efficiency to the unweighted spatial median particularly when the cluster sizes are widely disparate and in the presence of strong intracluster correlation. The unweighted spatial median for clustered data was considered earlier by Nevalainen et al. (Can J Statist, in press, 2007). The proposed weighted estimators provide companion estimates to the weighted affine invariant sign test proposed recently by Larocque et al. (Biometrika, in press, 2007). An affine equivariant weighted spatial median is discussed in parallel.     

Effects of targets and aggregation on the propagation of error in mortality forecasts

Official forecasts of mortality depend on assumptions about target values for the future rates of decline in mortality rates. Smooth functions connect the jump‐off (base‐year) mortality to the level implied by the targets. Three alternative sets of targets are assumed, leading to high, middle, and low forecasts. We show that this process can be closely modeled using simple linear statistical models. These explicit models allow us to analyze the error structure of the forecasts. We show that the current assumption of perfect correlation between errors in different ages, at different forecast years, and for different causes of death, is erroneous. An alternative correlation structure is suggested, and we show how its parameters can be estimated from the past data.

The effect of the level of aggregation on the accuracy of mortality forecasts is considered. It is not clear whether or not age‐ and cause‐specific analyses have been more accurate in the past than analyses based on age‐specific mortality alone would have been. The major contribution of forecasting mortality by cause appears to have been in allowing for easier incorporation of expert opinion rather than in making the. data analysis more accurate or the statistical models less biased.