Pitfalls in multi-national long-range planning

The authors of this article argue that too many companies are not getting the benefits which should be produced by their long-range planning systems. Of the many possible explanations for this, the authors concentrate on the major pitfalls which should be avoided in order to ensure good results. The article is based upon the results of a survey of planning pitfalls among corporations in six industrialized countries.     

论科学与工程的结构性差异

工程最初被理解为自然科学的应用,然而科学与工程之间的区别是需要进一步澄清的。二者间最简单的区别表现在自然物的科学同人造物的科学之间的区别,而创造性并不能作为科学同工程之间的根本区别。工程师寻找实现目标的手段,手段则是由规则给出的,而且是在技术可能性上有效的。为了更好地理解工程,需要引入技术解释学,并且把工程科学的哲学溶入技术的形而上学之中。     

On the Effect of Risk Aversion in Bimatrix Games

Nash equilibria with identical supports are compared for bimatrix games that are different with respect to the risk aversion of player 2. For equilibria in 2× 2-bimatrix games and for equilibria with efficient supports in coordination games it is established for which cases increased risk aversion of player 2 benefits or hurts player 2.     

The implications of the Lima target: Explorations with a world industrialization model

The Second General Conference of the UNIDO held in Lima in 1975 declared that the share of developing countries in total world industrial production should reach 25% by the year 2000. The model presented in this article has been constructed in order to investigate whether this target is consistent with other more generally accepted goals of development and is feasible within the area of production and trade possibilities.The model is a dynamic, multisectoral, multiregional input-output model. It focuses on the impacts and mutual consistency of targets of growth, regional income distribution, industrialization, consumption levels, and trade. In the empirical application three periods, three regions, and nine sectors have been distinguished to produce intersectorally, interregionally, and intertemporally consistent accounts for the main variables. Since the study is concerned with the maximum possible growth of industrial output of the developing countries, a linear programming approach has been used.The report is organized as follows. After an introduction, the second section describes the mathematical model. The third section contains a detailed explanation of the data basis and of the assumptions made to stimulate the model. The numerical results of the model are discussed in the fourth section, and the main conclusions are given in the fifth.     

Decision problems under uncertainty based on entropy functionals

This essay intends to define the role of entropy, in particular, the role of the maximum entropy criterion with respect to decision analysis and information economics. By considering the average opportunity loss interpretation, the basic hypothesis for Shannon's derivation can be derived from properties of decision problems. Using the representation Bayes Boundary it is possible to show that selecting a single probability from a set by the Maximum Entropy Criterion corresponds to a minimax criterion for decision-making. Since problems of randomly accessing and storing information as well as communicating information can often be stated in terms of coding problems, this result might be used to develop strategies for minimizing retrieval time or communication costs.     

Peer Group Affiliation of Children: The Role of Perceived Popularity,Likeability, and Behavioral Similarity in Bullying

To understand children's peer group affiliation, this study examined to what extent children in naturally occurring groups resemble each other on bullying, likeability, and perceived popularity. Participants were fourth‐ to sixth‐grade pupils (N = 461). Peer groups were identified using the social cognitive map procedure. Resemblance on bullying, likeability, and perceived popularity was evaluated by means of variance components models. Resemblance in peer groups was strongest for perceived popularity, followed by bullying and likeability. Moreover, resemblance on bullying could for a large part be attributed to the high‐perceived popularity of the group, and to a lesser extent, to the low likeability of the group. It is concluded that children showing bullying seem to affiliate with each other most of all to attain or maintain their position in a perceived popular peer group. Results stress the importance of considering the functionality of bullying from a group perspective.     

Fertility Changes Among Immigrants: Generations,Neighborhoods, and Personal Characteristics*

Objective. To understand how adaptation/assimilation, disruption, and diffusion interact to produce changes in fertility levels among successive generations of Mexicans and Central Americans in the United States. Method. Using restricted access data that link individual data (CPS) to neighborhood data (census tracts), we examine the role of generation, personal characteristics, and neighborhood characteristics in determining children ever born (CEB). Results. There are significant differences in fertility across generations and, to a lesser extent, between women who live in ethnic enclaves and those who do not. Once personal characteristics are considered, the independent effect of generation on fertility is nearly eliminated. Personal characteristics dominate neighborhood characteristics in their ability to predict fertility. The most consistent predictor of CEB at the neighborhood level is the percentage of Hispanic adults. Conclusions. Personal characteristics dominate fertility change across generation, and were it not for increases in educational attainment, fertility might be higher in successive generations rather than lower or unchanged.     

Privatization—A cure for all ills?

Before a troubled State-owned company can be privatized, the management dimension must be examined. The privatization strategy must be closely linked with the overall business strategy to ensure that the opportunities afforded by the operation provide for long-term profit enhancement. The logic behind the state-owned enterprise is described and the objectives of privatization, the pros and cons, are analysed.     

Determinants of Perceived Interfirm Dependence in Industrial Supplier Relations

Studies of industrial buyer-supplier relations mostly focus on structural characteristics of the transactions between parties, and assume a direct relation between these factors and characteristics of the relationships. This paper focuses on the psychological dimension of transaction relations, reflected in perceptions of dependence, from the perspective of an industrial supplier. In the first step of the analysis, three groups of structural determinants of perceived supplier dependence are explored: factors related to goal mediation, factors related to relation-specific assets, and factors related to network embeddedness. After that, the influence of these structural factors and of perceived supplier dependence on the ordering of buyer-supplier relations is investigated. Data come from a study of the micro-electronics assembly industry in the Netherlands. The findings show that sales to a particular buyer as a percentage of the total sales of the supplier and the growth of sales to a particular buyer (two forms of goal mediation) are important determinants of perceived supplier dependence. Human asset specificity is also related to perceived supplier dependence. Network embeddedness variables play only a minor role in explaining perceived supplier and buyer dependence in this study. The data further show that perceived dependence has an effect on the degree of ordering in the relationship, next to structural factors like the extendedness of the relationship beyond the focal transaction and physical asset specificity. The effects of human asset specificity and dedicated assets on ordering are contrary to what was expected on the basis of the literature.     

How People Perceive and Will Cope with Risks from the Diffusion of Ubiquitous Information and Communication Technologies

Information and communication technologies (ICTs) are increasingly pervasive and continue to reshape our environment. This trend carries different risks. Therefore, the early sensitization of people to these risks, as well as improving their capacity for protective coping behavior, is essential. Based on the protection motivation theory (PMT), we examined with structural equation modeling the relationships between different components of threat and coping appraisal to explain protective and nonprotective responses. Calculations were performed with data from a representative survey on perception and use of ICT among German residents (N= 5,030). Our findings largely supported the proposed model: an increased perceived threat was positively related to the intentions to react protectively and nonprotectively. Perceived coping efficacy increased the protective and decreased the nonprotective responses. Negative affect enhanced the perceived threat and the nonprotective response, but inhibited protective intentions. The implications of these findings on how to sensitize people to the risks of these new technologies are outlined.