Three estimators for the poisson regression model with measurement errors

We consider two consistent estimators for the parameters of the linear predictor in the Poisson regression model, where the covariate is measured with errors. The measurement errors are assumed to be normally distributed with known error variance σ _u ² . The SQS estimator, based on a conditional mean-variance model, takes the distribution of the latent covariate into account, and this is here assumed to be a normal distribution. The CS estimator, based on a corrected score function, does not use the distribution of the latent covariate. Nevertheless, for small σ _u ² , both estimators have identical asymptotic covariance matrices up to the order of σ _u ² . We also compare the consistent estimators to the naive estimator, which is based on replacing the latent covariate with its (erroneously) measured counterpart. The naive estimator is biased, but has a smaller covariance matrix than the consistent estimators (at least up to the order of σ _u ² ).     

The use of dummy variables in consumption models

In this paper the consumption model in Winder and Palm [1989] is subjected to a sensitivity analysis. Small and reasonable change in several dummy variables provide that the original model with a moving planning horizon becomes observationally equivalent with a random walk specification.     

Taxation and tax resistance

In recent years social and behavioral sciences have extended their interest to topics not normally thought to be within their province. One of these topics of current interest is tax resistance, an old problem indeed that continues to plague the modern welfare state. People are perfectly willing to benefit from government services but increasingly restive about paying for them. How to cope with this tax-welfare backlash is a crucial problem for all democratic governments. Growing government deficits, for example, may in part be due to the erosion of the tax base which results from a shift to unobserved activities. The main purpose of this article is to offer a theoretical framework for the definition and explanation of tax resistance. To this end, research findings about tax compliance and tax mentality as well as theoretical work on free-riding, exchanging and gift-giving will be presented and discussed.     

The Nomothetic-Idiographic Issue: Some Roots and Recent Trends

A review of the history of the nomothetic-idiographic issue suggests that the problem of the uniqueness of the individual is secondary in this context to that of the right approach to the study of the human person. Idiographic approaches emphasize the need for an unmutilated conceptualization of psychological processes. The requirements of this unmutilated kind of research need to be integrated with those of nomothetic science asking for the controlled gaining and analyzing of information regarding psychological processes. One form of such a kind of integration is represented by biographical studies based on semistructured interviews and a systematic qualitative and quantitative analysis of their contents. Findings from such research as especially related to developmental and personality psychology are reported here by summarizing a series of studies conducted at the University of Bonn.     

可作为方法论的范式解释

任何一种知识、认识、感觉和行为都要靠"范式"的(再)启动来形成。任何解释都是范式的运用。从认识论上来说,各种范式都是一些具有"结构"的应用模式,在心理学和神经学上,这些应用模式则是通过具有(协同和再)应用作用的神经元组合来协调、适应和"习得"的。从不变的、初始的不同"解释"到常规的、分类的和辩护性的解释,以及各种元解释,简述了解释的范式应用(即范式解释)的六个层次。构建性的范式解释是不可避免的。很多哲学问题都将必须沿着这些思路被重新表达、重新解释。     

Forecasting power-transformed time series data

When there is an interest in forecasting the growth rates as well as the levels of a single macro-economic time series, a practitioner faces the question of whether a forecasting model should be constructed for growth rates, for levels, or for both. In this paper, we investigate this issue for 10 US (un-)employment series, where we evaluate the forecasts from a non-linear time series model for power-transformed data. Our main finding is that models for growth rates (levels) do not automatically result in the most accurate forecasts of growth rates (levels).     

THE EFFECT OF INCENTIVE‐INDUCED RETIREMENT ON SPOUSAL RETIREMENT RATES: EVIDENCE FROM A NATURAL EXPERIMENT

We identify, quantify, and explain the impact of incentive‐induced early retirement (ER) of husbands on their wives' probability to retire within 1 year, using administrative data from the Netherlands. Our identification strategy is based on a policy intervention by which targeted individuals working at the central government level became unexpectedly and temporarily eligible for very generous ER benefits. This retirement window of opportunity implied for interested workers that transitions from the current job into full retirement had to be effected swiftly and irreversibly. We find that induced ER of husbands increased their wives' probability to retire by 10 percentage points. This is a strong and robust local average treatment effect. Partly, the effect runs through wives at ages when they may have been eligible for ER programs themselves. (JEL C26, J26, J120, J140)