How Rules Matter: Electoral Reform in Taiwan*

Objectives. This article is a test of general electoral theory in the case of Taiwan's 2008, postreform legislative election. In light of Taiwan's electoral reform, I test several hypotheses related to choice in electoral design and winning conditions, effective number of parties, proportionality, and regionalism. Methods. I run a simulation of the new rules and districting using the previous (2004) election results and compare this to the actual results. By comparing simulated and actual outcomes, I can compare theoretically‐driven, a priori expectations with election outcomes. Results. Primary findings are that a dominant seat share for the Nationalist Party, decline in third‐party representation, and disproportionality were largely predicated on the transition to a majoritarian system. Conclusion. General electoral theory holds robust predictive power in the case of Taiwan.     

Birds of a Feather? The Effect of Organizational Value Congruence on the Relationship Between Ministries and Quangos

In this paper we investigate differences between the organizational values of ministries and semi-autonomous executive agencies (quangos) that operate at arms’ length. Quangos are expected to operate more business-like, hence they can be expected to value profitability and other NPM-related values higher than ministries. Value incongruence between quangos and ministries is hypothesized to decrease their level of trust. These hypotheses are tested, using combined data from two Dutch surveys (n = 324). The results confirm the expectations, although different types of quangos have different degrees of value (in)congruence, which may lead to variations in the quality of the relationship with their parent ministry.     

How People Perceive and Will Cope with Risks from the Diffusion of Ubiquitous Information and Communication Technologies

Information and communication technologies (ICTs) are increasingly pervasive and continue to reshape our environment. This trend carries different risks. Therefore, the early sensitization of people to these risks, as well as improving their capacity for protective coping behavior, is essential. Based on the protection motivation theory (PMT), we examined with structural equation modeling the relationships between different components of threat and coping appraisal to explain protective and nonprotective responses. Calculations were performed with data from a representative survey on perception and use of ICT among German residents (N= 5,030). Our findings largely supported the proposed model: an increased perceived threat was positively related to the intentions to react protectively and nonprotectively. Perceived coping efficacy increased the protective and decreased the nonprotective responses. Negative affect enhanced the perceived threat and the nonprotective response, but inhibited protective intentions. The implications of these findings on how to sensitize people to the risks of these new technologies are outlined.     

Nonparametric regression estimation in a null recurrent time series

We derive an asymptotic theory of nonparametric estimation for a time series regression model Z_t=f(X_t)+W_t, where {X_t} and {Z_t} are observed nonstationary processes, and {W_t} is an unobserved stationary process. The class of nonstationary processes allowed for {X_t} is a subclass of the class of null recurrent Markov chains. This subclass contains the random walk, unit root processes and nonlinear processes. The process {W_t} is assumed to be linear and stationary.     

Inference in Targeted Group‐Sequential Covariate‐Adjusted Randomized Clinical Trials

This article is devoted to the construction and asymptotic study of adaptive, group‐sequential, covariate‐adjusted randomized clinical trials analysed through the prism of the semiparametric methodology of targeted maximum likelihood estimation. We show how to build, as the data accrue group‐sequentially, a sampling design that targets a user‐supplied optimal covariate‐adjusted design. We also show how to carry out sound statistical inference based on such an adaptive sampling scheme (therefore extending some results known in the independent and identically distributed setting only so far), and how group‐sequential testing applies on top of it. The procedure is robust (i.e. consistent even if the working model is mis‐specified). A simulation study confirms the theoretical results and validates the conjecture that the procedure may also be efficient.     

Margaret Sanger and the modern contraceptive techniques∗∗

The purposes of this study were (1) to show that a previously established relationship between female sexual enjoyment and self‐actualization also holds for males and (2) to demonstrate that sexual enjoyment of males and females is related to the actualization of their sexual partners. Forty‐two couples attending a large northeastern state university participated on a voluntary basis. Actualization was measured by the Personal Orientation Inventory. Sexual enjoyment was assessed by a questionnaire about orgasm consistency and by the Sexual Interaction Inventory (SII), which measures a variety of aspects of sexual satisfaction. Self‐actualization was related to orgasm consistency among males but not females. Several SII scales were correlated with self‐actualization for both males and females. Partners' self‐actualization was positively correlated with several aspects of male sexual enjoyment. However, female sexual enjoyment was negatively correlated with partners' self‐actualization. The results indicate that personality factors account for variance in male as well as female sexual responsiveness and that personality characteristics of one's partner may be related to one's sexual pleasure.     

Smooth estimation of a monotone density

We investigate the interplay of smoothness and monotonicity assumptions when estimating a density from a sample of observations. The nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator of a decreasing density on the positive half line attains a rate of convergence of [Formula: See Text] at a fixed point t if the density has a negative derivative at t. The same rate is obtained by a kernel estimator of bandwidth [Formula: See Text], but the limit distributions are different. If the density is both differentiable at t and known to be monotone, then a third estimator is obtained by isotonization of a kernel estimator. We show that this again attains the rate of convergence [Formula: See Text], and compare the limit distributions of the three types of estimators. It is shown that both isotonization and smoothing lead to a more concentrated limit distribution and we study the dependence on the proportionality constant in the bandwidth. We also show that isotonization does not change the limit behaviour of a kernel estimator with a bandwidth larger than [Formula: See Text], in the case that the density is known to have more than one derivative.     

Skill and education effects on earnings in 18 Countries: The role of national educational institutions

This study investigates whether the mechanisms why education is rewarded vary across countries. Do educational institutions affect the likelihood that support for a particular mechanism is found? Combining IALS survey data and OECD statistics on educational institutions, it was shown that the effect of measured skill on earnings - controlled for educational attainment - is lower in countries where educational institutions produce skills relevant for work through the vocational system. This indicates that the human capital perspective on education works particularly well in vocationally oriented educational systems, as the skills generated in education are strongly overlapping with the skills that are rewarded. An alternative mechanism sees education as a means for social closure through credentialization. Under the credentialization model, education is not primarily rewarded for the productivity-enhancing skills it entails, but rather for reasons unrelated to productivity. Following this theory education is used for selection into the organization, after which directly observable skills are determining wages. Assuming that a strongly differentiated educational system creates boundaries between social groups, it is hypothesized that strongly differentiated systems lead to stronger measured skill effects. We do not find support for this hypothesis.     

Bayesian variable selection with spherically symmetric priors

We propose that Bayesian variable selection for linear parametrizations with Gaussian iid likelihoods should be based on the spherical symmetry of the diagonalized parameter space. Our r-prior results in closed forms for the evidence for four examples, including the hyper-g prior and the Zellner–Siow prior, which are shown to be special cases. Scenarios of a single-variable dispersion parameter and of fixed dispersion are studied, and asymptotic forms comparable to the traditional information criteria are derived. A simulation exercise shows that model comparison based on our r-prior gives good results comparable to or better than current model comparison schemes.     

Lying in defence of privacy: anthropological and methodological observations

This article deals with three topics: lying, privacy and anthropological research. Their complex intertwinement is analysed using fieldwork notes and through engagement with relevant literature from various disciplines. Experiences of privacy, among researchers as well as among respondents, is underexposed in the literature on social research methodology. Furthermore, lying is sometimes the only effective way to protect one’s privacy. Starting from a research experience with lying respondents in Ghana, I discuss the various circumstances and reasons that lead to lying in defence of privacy, and in particular, concerns about respect in the context of research. Next, I return to the concept of privacy and explicate cultural variations in the experience of privacy. I then look at the consequences for research ethics. The paradoxical conclusion is that lying, a discredited tool of deception, is often applied in order to uphold a widely accepted basic human necessity of life – privacy. Qualitative social researchers should take these concerns about privacy and respect into account and engage in conversations that do not threaten the security of their interlocutors.