Does More Schooling Reduce Hospitalization and Delay Mortality? New Evidence Based on Danish Twins

Schooling generally is positively associated with better health-related outcomes—for example, less hospitalization and later mortality—but these associations do not measure whether schooling causes better health-related outcomes. Schooling may in part be a proxy for unobserved endowments—including family background and genetics—that both are correlated with schooling and have direct causal effects on these outcomes. This study addresses the schooling-health-gradient issue with twins methodology, using rich data from the Danish Twin Registry linked to population-based registries to minimize random and systematic measurement error biases. We find strong, significantly negative associations between schooling and hospitalization and mortality, but generally no causal effects of schooling.     

The Impact of HIV Testing on Subjective Expectations and Risky Behavior in Malawi

We investigate the causal impact of learning HIV status on HIV/AIDS-related expectations and sexual behavior in the medium run. Our analyses document several unexpected results about the effect of learning one's own, or one's spouse's, HIV status. For example, receiving an HIV-negative test result implies higher subjective expectations about being HIV-positive after two years, and individuals tend to have larger prediction errors about their HIV status after learning their HIV status. If individuals in HIV-negative couples also learn the status of their spouse, these effects disappear. In terms of behavioral outcomes, our analyses document that HIV-positive individuals who learned their status reported having fewer partners and using condoms more often than those who did not learn their status. Among married respondents in HIV-negative couples, learning only one's own status increases risky behavior, while learning both statuses decreases risky behavior. In addition, individuals in sero-discordant couples who learned both statuses are more likely to report some condom use. Overall, our analyses suggest that ensuring that each spouse learns the HIV status of the other, either through couple's testing or through spousal communication, may be beneficial in high-prevalence environments.     

Partner + Children = Happiness? The Effects of Partnerships and Fertility on Well‐Being

Economic and rational‐choice theories suggest that individuals form unions or have children because these decisions increase their subjective well‐being or “happiness.” We investigate this relation using within‐MZ (identical) twin pair estimates to control for unobserved factors, such as optimistic preferences, that may simultaneously affect happiness, partnerships, and fertility. Our findings, based on Danish twins aged 25–45 and 50–70 years old, include the following. (1) Currently being in a partnership has large positive effects on happiness. (2) A first child substantially increases well‐being, in analyses without controls for partnerships, and males enjoy an almost 75 percent larger happiness gain from a first‐born son than from a first‐born daughter; however, only females enjoy a happiness gain from the first‐born child with controls for partnerships. (3) Additional children beyond the first child have a negative effect on subjective well‐being for females, while there is no effect for males. (4) Ever having had children does not significantly affect the subjective well‐being of males or females aged 50–70 years.     

Variance effects in the bongaarts-feeney formula

Bongaarts and Feeney have recently proposed an adjusted total fertility rate to disentangle tempo effects from changes in the quantum of fertility. We propose an extension to the Bongaarts and Feeney formula that includes variance effects: that is, changes in the variance of the fertility schedule over time. If these variance effects are ignored, the mean age at birth and the adjusted total fertility rate are biased. We provide approximations for these biases, and we extend the TFR adjustment to fertility schedules with changing variance. We apply our method to the Swedish baby boom and bust, and show that variance effects are important for evaluating the relative contributions of tempo and quantum effects to the fertility change from 1985 to 1995.     

Tempo Effects in the Fertility Decline in Eastern Europe: Evidence from Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Russia

A recent formula due to Bongaarts and Feeney allows us todisentangle tempo and quantum effects in changes of the totalfertility rate. This article applies the TFR adjustment toBulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Russia.Substantial differences between the adjusted and the observed TFRindicate important tempo effects in the recent decline offertility. Moreover, these five countries differ in the relativeimportance of tempo versus quantum effects, and in the periodwhen tempo effects are most relevant. We discuss the validity ofthe assumptions that underlie the usage of the formula and wetest whether age-period interactions may invalidate theseassumptions.     

Verarmungsrisiken nach kritischen Lebensereignissen in Deutschland und den USA

We study how the impact of job loss, sickness, retirement, and family dissolution on the risk of relative income poverty differs between Germany and the United States, and whether the impact of these events has changed between 1980 and 2009. Americans are more likely than Germans to enter poverty after any of the four events, yet they also recover more quickly from job loss and family dissolution. Comparisons over time do not indicate a secular rise in the impact of critical life events on poverty risks, but our results show that poverty trajectories are subject to stronger cyclical fluctuations in the United States: Through its emphasis on market mechanisms, the liberal American welfare state raises the importance of (re-)employment opportunities for coping with the consequences of adverse life events. The absence of clear long-term trends leads to a reassessment of common views about welfare state change such as Jacob Hacker??s thesis of a ??Great Risk Shift?? or the notion of an ??Americanization?? of Continental European welfare states. So far, there is also little evidence that the often claimed recalibration of welfare states towards ??new social risks?? has alleviated the adverse economic consequences of family dissolution.     

Empirical Comparison of Nonparametric Regression Estimates on Real Data

The performance of nine different nonparametric regression estimates is empirically compared on ten different real datasets. The number of data points in the real datasets varies between 7, 900 and 18, 000, where each real dataset contains between 5 and 20 variables. The nonparametric regression estimates include kernel, partitioning, nearest neighbor, additive spline, neural network, penalized smoothing splines, local linear kernel, regression trees, and random forests estimates. The main result is a table containing the empirical L₂ risks of all nine nonparametric regression estimates on the evaluation part of the different datasets. The neural networks and random forests are the two estimates performing best. The datasets are publicly available, so that any new regression estimate can be easily compared with all nine estimates considered in this article by just applying it to the publicly available data and by computing its empirical L₂ risks on the evaluation part of the datasets.     

Ethnic and religious differentials in Bulgarian mortality, 1993-98

We investigated ethnic/religious mortality differentials in Bulgaria during the 1990s. The analyses employed a unique longitudinal data-set covering the entire population of Bulgaria from the census of 1992 until 1998. The mortality of Roma is very high compared to all other ethnic/religious groups. The excess applies to nearly every cause of death examined and is not entirely explained by the adverse location of Roma on social and economic variables. For young men, Muslim mortality is substantially lower than that of non-Muslims when socio-economic differences are controlled. An analysis of causes of death suggests that lower consumption of alcohol may contribute to this 'Muslim paradox'. For older Turkish women, a significant mortality disadvantage remains after controls are imposed. Suicide mortality is lower for Muslims than for Christian groups of the same ethnicity. Consistent with deteriorating economic conditions over the study period, mortality was rising, particularly for women.