Friedhelm Neidhardt zum 70. Geburtstag (3. Januar 2004)

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

The debate over low fertility in the popular press: A cross-national comparison, 1998–1999

Aspects of below-replacement fertility have long been debated among professional demographers. This paper describes the corresponding popular debate about low fertility by analyzing 437 newspaper and magazine articles from eleven developed countries during 1998 and 1999. Despite the diversity in the national debates due to different socioeconomic, political and demographic backgrounds, our study finds important commonalties in the way low fertility is debated: First, countries emphasize consequences and potential interventions rather than causes in their popular debates over low fertility. Second, our study reveals that the popular press discusses low fertility as a serious concern with mostly negative implications, despite the fact that many of the causes of low fertility are associated with social and economic progress. Third, the variety of issues and perspectives revealed in the popular debate, while cohesive in general ways, invites a role for demographers in informing an accurate public discussion of low fertility, which will help form the most appropriate policy outcomes.     

Book reviews

Diffusion Processes and Fertility Transition: Selected Perspectives. 2001. Edited by John B. Caster-Line. National Research Council, Committee on Population. Washington, DC: National Academies Press. Pp. xi + 271. N.p.g. ISBN: 0-309-07610-2. Available online at http://www.nap.edu/books/0309076102/html/Rl.html The Explanatory Power of Models. 2002. Edited by Robert Franck. Boston/Dordrecht/London: Kluwer Academic Publishers. Pp. x + 310. ￡74.00. ISBN: 1-4020-0867-8. Communism, Health and Lifestyle. The Paradox of Mortality Transition in Albania, 1950-1990. 2001. By Arjan Gjon?a. Westport, CT: Greenwood Press. Pp. ix + 227. US$69.95. ISBN: 0-313-31586-8. Historical Studies in Mortality Decline. 2002. By William H. Hubbard, Kari Pitk?nen, Jürgen Schlumbohm, S?lvi Sogner, Gunnar Thorvaldsen, and Frans van Poppel. Oslo: Novus Forlag. Pp. 134. ISBN: 82-7099-360-3. Population and Society in Western European Port-Cities. 2002. Edited by Richard Lawton and Robert Lee. Liverpool: Liverpool University Press. Pp. xx + 385. ￡18.95. ISBN: 0-85323-907-X. The Changing Face of Home: The Transnational Lives of the Second Generation. 2003. Edited by Peggy Levitt and Mary C. Waters. New York: Russell Sage Foundation. Pp. xi + 408. US$39.95. ISBN: 0-87154-517-9. The Demography of Victorian England and Wales. 2000. By Robert Woods. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Pp. xxv + 447. ￡50.00. ISBN: 0-521-78254-6. The Life Table: Modelling Survival and Death. 2002. Edited by Guillaume Wunsch, Michel Mouchart, and Josianne Duchêne. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers (European Studies of Population, Volume 11). Pp. x + 306. ￡89.00. ISBN: 1-4020-0638-1.     

The density of social networks and fertility decisions: evidence from south nyanza district, kenya

Demographers have argued increasingly that social interaction is an important mechanism for understanding fertility behavior. Yet it is still quite uncertain whether social learning or social influence is the dominant mechanism through which social networks affect individuals' contraceptive decisions. In this paper we argue that these mechanisms can be distinguished by analyzing the density of the social network and its interaction with the proportion of contraceptive users among network partners. Our analyses indicate that social learning is most relevant with high market activity; in regions with only modest market activity, however, social influence is the dominant means by which social networks affect women's contraceptive use.     

Birth month,school graduation,and the timing of births and marriages

We investigated the timing of fertility and marriage in Sweden using exogenous variation in the age at school graduation that results from differences in birth month. Our analysis found that the difference of 11 months in the age at leaving school between women who were born in two consecutive months, December and January, implies a delay in the age at first birth of 4.9 months. This effect of delayed graduation also persists for the timing of second births and first marriages, but it does not affect completed fertility or the overall probability of marriage before age 45. These results suggest the existence of a relatively rigid sequencing of demographic events in early adulthood, and the age at graduation from school emerges as an important factor in determining the timing--but not the quantum--of familyformation. In addition, these effects point to a potentially important influence of social age, defined by an individual's school cohort, instead of biological age. The relevance of social age is likely due to social interactions and peer-group influences exerted by individuals who are in the same school cohort but are not necessarily of the same age.     

The Popular Debate about Low Fertility: An Analysis of the German Press, 1993–2001

Despite increasing research on the causes, consequences, and measurement of low fertility, questions about the nature and the extent of popular concerns over low fertility have yielded more speculation than examination. We address this gap in the literature through an analysis of 328 German newspaper and news magazine articles mentioning low fertility from 1993 to 2001. Our analysis reveals a paradox: while fertility rates have remained well below replacement levels and governmental discussions of low fertility have increased, discussion of low fertility as a concern in and of itself has been small and unchanging over time. We find this to be true because the problem of low fertility is rarely invoked as a concern in its own right, but is most often used as a tool in the popular debate to discuss other problems – political, economic, and cultural.