Fossil fuel supplies simulation 1972–1979

Fossil fuels are an important source of energy for Ontario Hydro and purchases exceed $100 million per year. This paper describes a computer simulation of the inventory situation over an eight-year period, which is being used to assess the relationship between order flexibility and the target carry-over stocks at the beginning of each shipping season. A simple way of presenting the results for management evaluation is illustrated. Variations of the model are used to assess random influences, such as strikes, and to determine the economic balance between holding costs and stock-outs.     

Danish home care policy and the family: implications for the United States

This paper provides an overview of reforms in Danish long-term care initiated in the early 1980s, describes the relationship between elder care in Denmark and the family, and considers implications for U.S. policy. The success of Denmark's community-based experimentation with new models of home care and housing for the elderly resulted in a national decision to eliminate new construction of nursing homes and increase access to publicly funded home care. Lingering concern that the provision of paid assistance for the elderly could undermine family structure is allayed by the findings of a recent survey: Three-fourths of the elderly report seeing their children on a weekly or more frequent basis. Findings from the Danish experience provide evidence that community-based services can aid family caregivers, enable the frail elderly to live in the setting of their choice, and be cost-effective from a public policy perspective.     

Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation

Threshold models have a wide variety of applications in economics. Direct applications include models of separating and multiple equilibria. Other applications include empirical sample splitting when the sample split is based on a continuously‐distributed variable such as firm size. In addition, threshold models may be used as a parsimonious strategy for nonparametric function estimation. For example, the threshold autoregressive model (TAR) is popular in the nonlinear time series literature. Threshold models also emerge as special cases of more complex statistical frameworks, such as mixture models, switching models, Markov switching models, and smooth transition threshold models. It may be important to understand the statistical properties of threshold models as a preliminary step in the development of statistical tools to handle these more complicated structures. Despite the large number of potential applications, the statistical theory of threshold estimation is undeveloped. It is known that threshold estimates are super‐consistent, but a distribution theory useful for testing and inference has yet to be provided. This paper develops a statistical theory for threshold estimation in the regression context. We allow for either cross‐section or time series observations. Least squares estimation of the regression parameters is considered. An asymptotic distribution theory for the regression estimates (the threshold and the regression slopes) is developed. It is found that the distribution of the threshold estimate is nonstandard. A method to construct asymptotic confidence intervals is developed by inverting the likelihood ratio statistic. It is shown that this yields asymptotically conservative confidence regions. Monte Carlo simulations are presented to assess the accuracy of the asymptotic approximations. The empirical relevance of the theory is illustrated through an application to the multiple equilibria growth model of Durlauf and Johnson (1995).     

Correlates of depression in self-neglecting older adults: A cross-sectional study examining the role of alcohol abuse and pain in increasing vulnerability

ABSTRACT

Self-neglect among older adults results in increased morbidity and mortality rates. Depression is strongly linked to self-neglect and when untreated, severely complicates management of health and functional outcomes. The study aims to identify factors correlated with depression to inform approaches to service recruitment and retention that improve long-term outcomes. The sample included urban community-dwelling older adults (n = 96) 65 years of age and older with Adult Protective Services-substantiated self-neglect. All participants completed a range of validated cognitive, functional, and self-report demographic and clinical measures around health and mental health functioning. A secondary data analysis using multivariable logistic regression revealed that a positive screen for alcohol abuse, low self-rated health, and higher self-reported pain were associated with significantly higher odds of self-reported depression. Further research is needed to understand the temporality between these correlates and depression and to inform prevention and intervention practices for self-neglecting older adults.     

Gender,Nation, Rape: Bosnia and the Construction of Security

The mass rapes in Bosnia brought gendered security problems onto the international agenda to an unprecedented extent. This article examines the debate surrounding whether these rapes should be characterized as a security problem which warranted international attention and possibly intervention. This debate evolved around the question whether wartime rape should be understood as an individual risk or a collective security problem;and whether it should be defined in national or in gendered terms. The empirical part of the article analyses the three dominant representations of the Bosnian mass rapes: 'rape as normal/Balkan warfare' argued that rape did not constitute a collective security problem and the international community had therefore no reason or responsibility to intervene; the "rape as exceptional/Serbian warfare" representation read the rapes through national lenses and argued that the international community should intervene militarily in defence of the Bosnian government; and the third representation, "Balkan patriarchy", claimed the privileged of a gendered reading of the rapes, the conflict in Bosnian should, according to this discourse, be understood as involving women on the one side and the patriarchal nationalistic leaderships on the other. The article concludes that the political impact of each of the representations is difficult to assess, but that the willingness of the International Crime Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia to pursue rape-related indictments constitutes an important step towards the recognition of wartime rape as a collective security problem.     

What's Wrong with Subjectivity Anyway?

In this paper I look at the current trend toward positivism in the practice of psychotherapy. I use the term psychotherapy throughout, to remind family therapist readers that the problem is not ours alone. I offer a brief, critical literature review. I suggest that the trend towards positivism offers little of therapeutic value and compromises the ethical practice of psychotherapy. The origins of the trend lie in economic rationalism (demonstrated by the sorry state of the profession in the USA), philosophical error (the belief in certain knowledge) and a misplaced faith in method (simple algorithms exist that can transcend even the most complex circumstances). I dispute the validity of these influences and draw upon David Smail's suggestion that the pursuit of objectivity is an attempt to avoid the awkward necessity of making moral judgements. In the last section of the paper I briefly examine a philosophical framework that could serve as a guide to the subjective practice of psychotherapy and I offer a simple subjective metaphor drawn from a work of literary criticism.     

The application of microcomputers in production management

The findings reported result from a questionnaire survey, and a number of company interviews. Further questions which need to be answered are identified, and a research project to provide these answers is outlined.     

Immigrant and native ethnic enterprises in Mexican American neighborhoods: differing perceptions of Mexican immigrant workers

This study uses original data from a large sample of businesses located in Mexican ethnic neighborhoods (barrios) in Texas and California to analyze how perceptions of the economic roles of Mexican immigrant workers differ among 3 employer groups: native ethnic, immigrant ethnic, and non-ethnic. It was found that the immigrant ethnic employer group depends more on Mexican immigrants as workers and as consumers than does the native ethnic group, which tends in many ways to be more like the non-ethnic group. Differences between results for localities on the border with Mexico and those for non-border localities are also discussed.