How Probabilistic Risk Assessment Can Mislead Terrorism Risk Analysts

Traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), of the type originally developed for engineered systems, is still proposed for terrorism risk analysis. We show that such PRA applications are unjustified in general. The capacity of terrorists to seek and use information and to actively research different attack options before deciding what to do raises unique features of terrorism risk assessment that are not adequately addressed by conventional PRA for natural and engineered systems—in part because decisions based on such PRA estimates do not adequately hedge against the different probabilities that attackers may eventually act upon. These probabilities may differ from the defender's (even if the defender's experts are thoroughly trained, well calibrated, unbiased probability assessors) because they may be conditioned on different information. We illustrate the fundamental differences between PRA and terrorism risk analysis, and suggest use of robust decision analysis for risk management when attackers may know more about some attack options than we do.     

A general causal model to guide alcohol, tobacco, and illicit drug prevention: assessing the research evidence

The problems associated with the use of alcohol, tobacco, and other drugs (ATOD) extract a significant health, social, and economic toll on American society. While the field of substance abuse prevention has made great strides during the past decade, two major challenges remain. First, the field has been disorganized and fragmented with respect to its research and prevention practices; that is, there are often separate ATOD prevention "specialists." Second, both the prevention researchers who test the efficacy of specific prevention strategies and the practitioners who implement prevention efforts often lack an overall perspective to guide strategy selection. To address these limitations, we present an ATOD causal model that seeks to identify those variables (Domains) that are theoretically salient and empirically connected across alcohol, tobacco, and illicit drugs. For the researcher, the model demonstrates important commonalities, as well as gaps, in the literature. For the practitioner, the model is a means to recognize both the complexity of the community system that produces ATOD problems and the multiple intervention points that are possible within this system. Researchers and practitioners are thus challenged to work synergistically to find effective and cost-effective approaches to change or reduce ATOD use and associated problems.     

Discrete Probability Distributions for Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics

Recently, discrete probability distributions (DPDs) have been suggested for use in risk analysis calculations to simplify the numerical computations which must be performed to determine failure probabilities. Specifically, DPDs have been developed to investigate probabilistic functions, that is, functions whose exact form is uncertain. The analysis of defect growth in materials by probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM) models provides an example in which probabilistic functions play an important role. This paper compares and contrasts Monte Carlo simulation and DPDs as tools for calculating material failure due to fatigue crack growth. For the problem studied, the DPD method takes approximately one third the computation time of the Monte Carlo approach for comparable accuracy. It is concluded that the DPD method has considerable promise in low-failure-probability calculations of importance in risk assessment. In contrast to Monte Carlo, the computation time for the DPD approach is relatively insensitive to the magnitude of the probability being estimated.     

Preventing child abuse; a review of community-based projects 1. Intervening on processes and outcome of reviews

Recent theories advocating ecological and developmental perspectives on child abuse and neglect are summarized. Reviews of community prevention programmes underline the importance of focusing on processes and viewing the developing child and their family in a broad context. The conclusions of the reviews are reported. Although the reviews suggest that some programmes to prevent physical and sexual abuse and bullying are at least to some degree effective, their impact has been reduced by a failure to encompass adequately the various influences that operate across difference domains of the child's life at different stages of their development. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Back to Stir It Up: Erectile Dysfunction in an Evolutionary,Developmental, and Clinical Perspective

In this review, we analyze erectile dysfunction (ED) in the context of sexual selection. We highlight that ED is a specific human male characteristic linked to the loss of the baculum or penile bone and results from a range of physical and psychological factors. We discuss evolutionary interpretations that consider dysfunctional penile erection as an honest signal of a low-quality male. We further emphasize the importance of considering psychosocial context and early attachment dynamics for understanding the etiology of some types of ED. Finally, we suggest that the integration of developmental factors for understanding the emergence of this sexual disorder is instrumental for the calibration of more effective therapies.     

‘Privacy does not interest me’. A comparative analysis of photo sharing on Instagram and Blipfoto

Photo sharing online has become immensely popular and is a central aspect of modern visual culture. Yet it creates a number of privacy issues, both in relation to other individuals and corporate surveillance. The purpose of this study was to investigate users’ understanding of privacy issues in photo sharing, based on a comparative study of two contrasting platforms: Instagram and Blipfoto. The study combined netnography and in-depth interviewing. It was found that Instagram users had a greater awareness of how the platform might use their data, but saw this loss of privacy as inevitable in return for a free service. Blipfoto users were more trusting of what they experienced as a very community minded platform. Any concerns felt by both groups of users were out-weighed by the sense that photo sharing was highly meaningful and their fascination with watching and being watched. Both groups main approach to privacy was through restricting certain types of image of people and not revealing the location of certain personal spaces. Notions of privacy thus remained primarily personal and ignored corporate dataveillance.     

Relations Among Intimate Partner Violence,Maternal Depressive Symptoms,and Maternal Parenting Behaviors

The authors examined the relations among intimate partner violence (IPV), maternal depressive symptoms, and maternal harsh intrusive parenting. Using a cross‐lagged, autoregressive path model, they sought to clarify the directionality of the relations among these 3 variables over the first 2 years of the child's life. The results indicated that, in this diverse sample of families living in predominantly low‐income rural communities (N = 705), higher levels of early IPV were associated with increases in maternal depressive symptoms, which in turn were associated with increases in maternal harsh intrusive parenting behaviors. These findings suggest that interventions aimed at improving the parenting of women exposed to domestic violence may want to simultaneously target IPV and depressive symptomatology.