The application of the durbin-watson test to the dynamic regression model under normal and non-normal errors

Until recently, a difficulty with applying the Durbin-Watson (DW) test to the dynamic linear regression model has been the lack of appropriate critical values. Inder (1986) used a modified small-disturbance distribution (SDD) to find approximate critical values. King and Wu (1991) showed that the exact SDD of the DW statistic is equivalent to the distribution of the DW statistic from the regression with the lagged dependent variables replaced by their means. Unfortunately, these means are unknown although they could be estimated by the actual variable values. This provides a justification for using the exact critical values of the DW statistic from the regression with the lagged dependent variables treated as non-stochastic regressors. Extensive Monte Carlo experiments are reported in this paper. They show that this approach leads to reasonably accurate critical values, particularly when two lags of the dependent variable are present. Robustness to non-normality is also investigated.     

The mechanisms mediating the effects of poverty on children’s intellectual development

Although adverse consequences of poverty for children are documented widely, little is understood about the mechanisms through which the effects of poverty disadvantage young children. In this analysis we investigate multiple mechanisms through which poverty affects a child's intellectual development. Using data from the NLSY and structural equation models, we have constructed five latent factors (cognitive stimulation, parenting style, physical environment, child's ill health at birth, and ill health in childhood) and have allowed these factors, along with child care, to mediate the effects of poverty and other exogenous variables. We produce two main findings. First, the influence of family poverty on children's intellectual development is mediated completely by the intervening mechanisms measured by our latent factors. Second, our analysis points to cognitive stimulation in the home, and (to a lesser extent) to parenting style, physical environment of the home, and poor child health at birth, as mediating factors that are affected by lack of income and that influence children's intellectual development.     

Monitoring Optimism in South Africa

An article with exactly this same title was published in Social Indicators Research (41:279–304, 1997). The purpose of the current article is to update the findings discussed in that first article. Therefore the abstract published previously is still relevant: The last few decades have been the most crucial and eventful ones in South Africa’s history. During this time, the empirical research and knowledge provided by opinion polls yielded much-needed insight into the grass roots of a society in transition, providing an instrument with which to measure the political climate, to observe trends and developments and to give input into the decision-making process of companies and political parties. Although the process of change and political transition still remains difficult to properly define, this article will provide some insight into the attitudes, perceptions and values of the South African public by giving attention to trends that have transpired over the years. Special attention is devoted to perceptions on pertinent issues such as the mood in the country, optimism, economic well-being, social harmony and trust – all essential elements in an emerging democracy. Again, extensive use is made of data and findings from Markinor’s bi-annual Socio-Political Trends surveys and the World Values Studies.     

Genetic Bio-Ancestry and Social Construction of Racial Classification in Social Surveys in the Contemporary United States

Self-reported race is generally considered the basis for racial classification in social surveys, including the U.S. census. Drawing on recent advances in human molecular genetics and social science perspectives of socially constructed race, our study takes into account both genetic bio-ancestry and social context in understanding racial classification. This article accomplishes two objectives. First, our research establishes geographic genetic bio-ancestry as a component of racial classification. Second, it shows how social forces trump biology in racial classification and/or how social context interacts with bio-ancestry in shaping racial classification. The findings were replicated in two racially and ethnically diverse data sets: the College Roommate Study (N = 2,065) and the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (N = 2,281).     

The impact of discernment counseling on individuals who decide to divorce: experiences of post‐divorce communication and coparenting

Discernment counseling is designed to help couples considering divorce arrive at a greater sense of clarity and confidence in their decision making about the future of their marriage. Possible outcomes include making no change to the marriage, divorcing, or attempting reconciliation through couples therapy. To date, no research has been done on whether or not discernment counseling helps couples who decide to divorce with their post‐divorce family life (i.e., coparenting). We surveyed 11 people (from male–female couples) and conducted in‐depth interviews with eight who had undergone discernment counseling and subsequently divorced to see what impact discernment counseling had on their post‐divorce coparenting relationship. We analyzed the data from a phenomenological perspective. Respondents described their discernment counseling experience as helpful for achieving clarity and honesty in the divorce decision‐making process, they shared their appreciation for the structure of the intervention, and indicated that it led to a greater coparental cooperation post‐divorce.     

Towards a critical post-structuralism

Over the last two decades the public sector has been eroded and its capacity to meet social objectives undermined. Social workers wishing to offer an effective critique face the question of whether or not post-structuralism can contribute to this end. This paper suggests that it can do so if it is prepared to engage with traditional questions relating to economic forces, the place of the state, systematic inequality and the nature of reform. This involves a willingness to recognise the insights of Marxist, feminist and social democratic schools. This paper illustrates this with reference to four issues: structural explanation; the state; global categories; and normative judgements.