Behavioral Determinants of Target Shifting and Deterrence in an Analog Cyber-Attack Game

This study examines how exploiting biases in probability judgment can enhance deterrence using a fixed allocation of defensive resources. We investigate attacker anchoring heuristics for conjunctive events with missing information to distort attacker estimates of success for targets with equal defensive resources. We designed and conducted a behavioral experiment functioning as an analog cyber attack with multiple targets requiring three stages of attack to successfully acquire a target. Each stage is associated with a probability of successfully attacking a layer of defense, reflecting the allocation of resources for each layer. There are four types of targets that have nearly equal likelihood of being successfully attacked, including one type with equally distributed success probabilities over every layer and three types with success probabilities that are concentrated to be lowest in the first, second, or third layer. Players are incentivized by a payoff system that offers a reward for successfully attacked targets and a penalty for failed attacks. We collected data from a total of 1,600 separate target selections from 80 players and discovered that the target type with the lowest probability of success on the first layer was least preferred among attackers, providing the greatest deterrent. Targets with equally distributed success probabilities across layers were the next least preferred among attackers, indicating greater deterrence for uniform-layered defenses compared to defenses that are concentrated at the inner (second or third) levels. This finding is consistent with both attacker anchoring and ambiguity biases and an interpretation of failed attacks as near misses.     

Giving at Work: Exploring Connections Between Workplace Giving Campaigns and Patterns of Household Charitable Giving in the USA

VOLUNTAS: International Journal of Voluntary and Nonprofit Organizations - This research addresses an area of philanthropic study that is becoming an increasingly important revenue source for the...     

On the distributions of components sums of squares in one-way unbalanced random model under heter06ene0us error variances

Exact sampling distributions of sums of squares in the unbalanced one-way random model are obtained under heterogeneous error variances. These distributions are used to investigate the effect of heteroscedasticity and unbalancedness on the probability of negative estimate of the group variance component. The computed results reveal that heteroscedasticity affects the probability of negative estimate in all situations of group sizes. Further, the probability decreases with heterogeneity of error variances for balanced situations and increases with variability among group size for equal error variances case.     

Research encounters,reflexivity and supervision

Reflexivity in qualitative and ethnographic social science research can provide a rich source of data, especially regarding the affective, performative and relational aspects of interviews with research subjects. This paper explores by means of three case examples different ways of accessing and using such reflexivity. The examples are drawn from an empirical psycho-social study into the identity transitions of first-time mothers in an inner-city multicultural environment. Fieldnotes and supervision were used to engage with researcher subjectivity, to enhance the productive use of reflexivity and to address the emotional work of research. The methodology of the supervision was psychoanalytic, in its use of a boundaried frame and of psychoanalytic forms of noticing oneself, of staying engaged emotionally as well as creating a reflective distance. The examples illustrate how this can enhance the knowledge gained about the research subjects.     

Flash Flood Risks and Warning Decisions: A Mental Models Study of Forecasters,Public Officials,and Media Broadcasters in Boulder,Colorado

Timely warning communication and decision making are critical for reducing harm from flash flooding. To help understand and improve extreme weather risk communication and management, this study uses a mental models research approach to investigate the flash flood warning system and its risk decision context. Data were collected in the Boulder, Colorado area from mental models interviews with forecasters, public officials, and media broadcasters, who each make important interacting decisions in the warning system, and from a group modeling session with forecasters. Analysis of the data informed development of a decision‐focused model of the flash flood warning system that integrates the professionals’ perspectives. Comparative analysis of individual and group data with this model characterizes how these professionals conceptualize flash flood risks and associated uncertainty; create and disseminate flash flood warning information; and perceive how warning information is (and should be) used in their own and others’ decisions. The analysis indicates that warning system functioning would benefit from professionals developing a clearer, shared understanding of flash flood risks and the warning system, across their areas of expertise and job roles. Given the challenges in risk communication and decision making for complex, rapidly evolving hazards such as flash floods, another priority is development of improved warning content to help members of the public protect themselves when needed. Also important is professional communication with members of the public about allocation of responsibilities for managing flash flood risks, as well as improved system‐wide management of uncertainty in decisions.     

Evidence-Based Suicide Prevention Screening in Schools

Screening for suicidality, as called for by the President's New Freedom Commission on Mental Health, is a major public health concern. As a place where adolescents spend a considerable amount of their waking hours, school is an important venue for screening adolescents for suicidal behaviors and providing preventive education and risk management. Social workers, as the largest occupational group of mental health professionals in the United States, have a significant role to play in the national strategy to prevent youth suicide, especially at the school level. This article reviews the literature on suicide prevention screening, warning signs, and risk factors to gain a better understanding of evidence-based screening strategies and discuss the implications for school social workers, counselors, and psychologists. It focuses on the identification of research-based information and explication of potential means for guiding preventive screening and clinical practice with suicidal adolescents.     

Marital Quality and Personal Well‐Being: A Meta‐Analysis

This study examines the association between marital quality and personal well‐being using meta‐analytic techniques. Effects from 93 studies were analyzed. The average weighted effect size r was .37 for cross‐sectional and .25 for longitudinal effects. Results indicate that several variables moderate the association between marital quality and personal well‐being, including gender, participants’ marital duration, source of measurement, data collection year, and dependent variable. These results suggest that longitudinal effects are more likely to be uncovered when using standard measurement and that future research should use samples homogenous in marital length. The longitudinal finding that the strength of the association is stronger when personal well‐being is treated as the dependent variable supports previous theorizing.     

Cumulative Response to Sequences of Terror Attacks Varying in Frequency and Trajectory

There is a paucity of research examining public response to the cumulative effects of multiple related extreme events over time. We investigated the separate and combined effects of frequency and trajectory of terrorist attacks. A scenario simulation of a series of gas station bombings in Southern California was developed to evaluate respondents' affect, risk perception, and intended avoidance behavior using a 3 (frequency; low vs. medium vs. high) by 3 (trajectory; increasing vs. constant vs. decreasing) factorial design. For each of the nine conditions, three videos were created to simulate news broadcasts documenting the attacks over a three‐week period. A total of 275 respondents were included in the analysis. Results from analysis of covariances (ANCOVAs) indicate that trajectory of the sequential attacks (increasing or decreasing in frequency) predicts negative affect, risk perception, and avoidance behavior. In contrast, frequency predicts neither negative affect, positive affect, risk perception, nor intended avoidance behavior. Results from structural equation modeling (SEM) further indicate that the effect of negative affect on behavioral intention is mediated by risk perception and the effect of trajectory on risk perception is partially mediated by negative affect. In addition, both ANCOVAs and SEM model results suggest that (1) females experience less positive affect and perceive more risk than males, (2) respondents with higher income perceive more risk, and (3) younger respondents are more likely to modify their behavior to avoid the risk of future attacks.     

Unfolding What Self-Compassion Means in Young Carers’ Lives

Child and Adolescent Social Work Journal - Young carers (YCs) are children and youth who provide caregiving for family members who may experience an illness, disability, addiction, language...