The logical reconstruction of pure exchange economics: Another alternative

Theory and Decision -     

Political confrontation over fiscal processes: The impact of the U.S. Congressional Budget Act

In July 1974 the U.S. Congressional Budget Act was signed into law. This legislation was the result of a heavily fought political confrontation between President Nixon and Congress over who controlled the Federal budget. In addition to the issue of control, the Act was prompted by dissatisfaction with the procedures used by Congress to determine Federal receipts and expenditures. The purpose of this paper is to assess the impact this legislation had on the U.S. economy in its early years.The first section of the paper sets up a simple modeling framework. The model is specified so as to illustrate how a change in the budget process resulting from the Congressional Budget Act could potentially produce changes in the level of total output. This section also explains the derivation of a tax and expenditure series used in the model's empirical testing. The second section addresses some of the theoretical issues, and presents the results of simulations based on the Chase, Wharton, and Data Resources econometric models. Broad conclusions are gathered in the final section.     

World Development and the Restructuring of the Industrial Economies

This paper reports on the joint SPM/CRANEC Catholic University of Milan symposium on “World Development and the Restructuring of Industrial Economies” held at Bellagio, Lake Como, Italy during the week of 10–15 September 1979. The symposium was organized to discuss the adjustments required by the industrialized economies when adapting to the changes inherent in present world development trends, as well as to help define national and international policy measures that might be used to facilitate the restructuring process. This report reviews the key issues, alternative strategies for restructuring, and policy measures for restructuring discussed at the symposium. It also offers some conclusions based on the results of the symposium.     

The Correspondence Between Fertility Intentions and Behavior in the United States

Using data from the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, we describe the correspondence between intended family size and observed fertility for US men and women in the 1957–64 birth cohorts. Mean fertility intentions calculated from reports given in the mid‐20s modestly overstate completed fertility. But discrepancies between stated intent and actual fertility are common—the stated intent at age 24 (for both women and men) is more likely to miss than to match completed fertility. We focus on factors that predict which women and men will have fewer or more children than intended. Consistent with life‐course arguments, those unmarried, childless, or (for women) still in school at approximately age 24 were most likely to underachieve their intended parity (i.e., had fewer children than intended at age 24). We discuss how such discrepancies between intentions and behavior may cumulate to produce sizable cross‐group fertility differences.     

Migration and climate change: examining thresholds of change to guide effective adaptation decision-making

The implications of environmental change for migration are little understood. Migration as a response to climate change could be seen as a failure of in situ adaptation methods, or migration could be alternatively perceived as a rational component of creative adaptation to environmental risk. This paper frames migration as part of an adaptation response to climate change impacts to natural resource condition and environmental hazards. Thresholds will be reached by communities after which migration will become a vital component of an effective adaptation response. Such changes to migration patterns have the potential to undermine migration policy unless appropriate preparations are undertaken. This paper describes an approach to assist researchers to frame how climate change will influence migration by critically analysing how thresholds of fundamental change to migration patterns could be identified, primarily in relation to two case studies in Nepal and Thailand. Future policy for internal and international migration could be guided by the analysis of such thresholds of non-linear migration and resourced effectively to ensure that socio-economic and humanitarian outcomes are maximised.     

The Social Patterning of Work-Related Insecurity and its Health Consequences

This study examines the association between work-related insecurity and health, with a focus on how this relationship is moderated by social location (gender, age and race). Drawing on longitudinal data from a Canadian labour market survey (1999–2004) the findings show that certain groups have a higher prevalence of exposure to certain types of work-related insecurity including (among others) low earnings, poor job mobility and the absence of union protection. Results from regression analyses indicate that the negative health impact of work-related insecurity is also unevenly distributed across different social locations. In some cases, older age and visible minority status significantly elevated the health risk posed by work-related insecurity. The implications of these findings are discussed in terms of major shifts in the demographic composition of the labour market due to workforce ageing and the increased participation of women and visible minorities.     

Have african american men become less committed to marriage? Explaining the twentieth century racial cross-over in men’s marriage timing

Prior to World War II, the median age at marriage for white men was later than that for African American men. Since World War II, African American men have, on average, married later than white men. A discrete-time hazard model using data from the National Survey of Families and Households was analyzed to explain this racial cross-over in men’s timing of marriage. Dramatic increases in the educational attainment of African American parents and the large movement of African Americans out of the South brought about the racial cross-over in the timing of marriage. Increased enrollment in higher education among African American men also contributed to the racial cross-over in the timing of marriage. Although lack of full-time employment and military service delayed marriage, these factors did not contribute to the racial cross-over.     

The (Conditional) Resource Dilution Model: State- and Community-Level Modifications

Demography - One of the most consistent patterns in the social sciences is the relationship between sibship size and educational outcomes: those with fewer siblings outperform those with many. The...