There is no low-level fertility and development trap

Summary The theory of the low-level equilibrium trap asserts that an increase in income stimulates population growth sufficiently so that the additional people 'eat up' the 'surplus' over subsistence, and hence drive the level of income back to subsistence. Originally the theory referred primarily to mortality, but nowadays its application is to fertility. In the long-run equilibrium context in which the theory is ordinarily presented, the fact that the long-run elasticity of fertility with respect to income is negative in less developed countries fatally contradicts the accepted version of the trap. But to give every chance for trap theory to be meaningful, the paper presents a period-by-period analysis, embodying larger-than-observed positive elasticities during the early years and the logically necessary counterbalancing negative elasticities during the later years. These elasticities are combined with consumption and production figures for various age groups to estimate the effect in each year after the windfall, and altogether. The results show that even under assumptions not charitable to the conclusion of this paper, additional children do not even come close to 'eating up' the increase in income which induced their births, so that the trap theory is falsified.     

The certainty of judgments in health evaluations

Most evaluators seem to presume that all evaluative studies should result in conclusive evidence. Often, however, less than conclusive evidence may not only suffice, but be the only real alternative under conditions of limited evaluation resources. Three levels of evidence common to evaluation studies are discussed: suggestive evidence, preponderant evidence, and conclusive evidence. Ten factors are also presented which can be used to determine the level of certainty appropriate for a given evaluation study. Consideration of these factors enables the evaluator to specify when less than conclusive evidence is acceptable.     

Reaching children at risk: a model for training child welfare specialists

An innovative model for the training of social welfare students in the special skills essential in child welfare work is predicated upon a classification system of children at risk and a continuum of services.     

Location of community-based treatment centers

Neighborhood opposition to community-based treatment centers (CBTCs) has prompted fears that these centers will become concentrated in inner city, "transitional neighborhoods." These neighborhoods are thought to lack the willingness and/or resources to oppose CBTCs. This paper examines the distribution of CBTCs in a northern metropolitan county. The findings suggests that the fears of "ghettoization" may be real only for certain types of centers. Most centers were located in higher-status city and suburban neighborhoods. However, these centers were physically or visually isolated from the surrounding housing, making them less likely to attract attention and therefore less likely to arouse neighborhood opposition.     

Some factors related to contraceptive behavior among Wind River Shoshone and Arapahoe females

During the summer of 1972 in-depth interviews were conducted with 96 Shoshone and Arapahoe Indian women living on the Wind River Reservation in Central Wyoming. All were aged 15-49 and were users of the reservation health service. It was found the women fell into 4 groups: current contraceptive users, 42.7%; pregnant or seeking to become pregnant, 10.4%; infertile due to menopause or sterilization, 18.8%; and fertile never-users, 28.1%. The contraceptive users tended to be older, married, and have as many children as they want. The fertile never-users tended to be in their teens and generally unmarried. When asked why they did not use contraception their answer was 'because I am not married.' It is suggested that general education on contraception be provided the younger women so that when they achieve desired family size they will be informed as to family planning methods. It was found that religious belief against contraception was important to the young never-users, but not to the women who had completed their families. In fact, 73% of the users said their religion, which most identified as Roman Catholicism, had no influence on their contraceptive use while 27% said they were aware of church disapproval but used contraception anyway.     

Involving constituents in agency priority setting: a case study

Many government agencies have "constituents" who believe the agencies should hear and consider their needs and desires in establishing program priorities. This article describes how one involves interested constituents (consumers, industry, medical professionals, and state organizations) in the agency's annual priority-setting process. This participation has produced a number of beneficial results-some expected and some unexpected.     

Micromomentary movement and the deconding of face and body cues

A new version of the Profile of Nonverbal Sensitivity Test (PONS)—a standardized test of sensitivity to nonverbal cues—was developed to determine the effects of five levels or sequences of micromomentary movement on accuracy in decoding nonverbal face and body cues, presented for 125 microseconds (msecs). The five sequences were: backward movement, partially backward movement, no movement, partially forward movement, and fully forward movement. Two versions of this test—the Test of Micromomentary Movement Effects (TOMME)—were administered to two samples of female high school and college students. The results, averaged over face and body cues, showed that as the movement sequences more closely approximated the fully forward sequence, decoding accuracy increased. These results, showing the benefits of adding properly sequenced information at split second (42 msec) exposures, not only support the findings of previous researchers that micromomentary facial affect displays may be helpful in decoding nonverbal facial cues, but also suggest that micromomentary movements may be important for decoding body cues as well.     

The dynamics and differentials of fertility in the USSR (survey results)

The results of a fertility survey carried out in the USSR in 1978 are presented. The survey included 33,076 women aged 18 to 59. Data are included on fertility rates by region and Union Republic and by urban or rural area, and on expected fertility of women aged 18 to 44. Changes in actual and desired fertility over time are compared for five-year periods from 1945 to 1978. Differences in fertility are analyzed by type of settlement, educational status, and nationality.