北京市优质公共资源配置与人口疏解研究

文章分析了北京市优质公共资源配置与人口分布现状,并提出实现中心城人口疏解的相应对策。指出,人口迁移的一个重要因素是各种优质公共资源的吸引。北京的教育、医疗卫生、文化、体育、公共交通等优质公共资源在中心城高度聚集是导致人口在中心城聚集的一个重要原因。为此,要疏解中心城人口,需采取如下措施:政府主导,在新城高标准配置优质公共资源;优先疏解中心城教育、医疗资源;强化轨道交通的引导作用,降低新城居民出行的成本。     

计划生育政策的人口效应

文章试图估计计划生育政策使我国少生了多少人。利用1980~2008年世界140多个国家的数据来模拟在没有计划生育政策影响下经济社会变量与人口变量的相关关系,并据此对中国无计划生育条件下的总和生育率进行测算。将测算出来的无计划生育条件下的总和生育率和中国实际总和生育率分别代入模型进行人口模拟,比较无计划生育条件下和现实条件下人口增长的不同过程和结果。研究表明:无计划生育条件下,我国2008年生育率水平的预测值大概在2.5左右。1972~2008年间,排除经济社会发展的影响,单纯由于计划生育的作用,中国少生了4.58亿人。     

Urban risks due to climate change in the Andean municipality of Pasto,Colombia: A Bayesian network approach

The current trends of climate change will increase people's exposure to urban risks related to events such as landslides, floods, forest fires, food production, health, and water availability, which are stochastic and very localized in nature. This research uses a Bayesian network (BN) approach to analyze the intensity of such urban risks for the Andean municipality of Pasto, Colombia, under climate change scenarios. The stochastic BN model is linked to correlational models and local scenarios of representative concentration trajectories (RCP) to project the possible risks to which the municipality of Pasto will be exposed in the future. The results show significant risks in crop yields, food security, water availability and disaster risks, but no significant risks on the incidence of acute diarrheal diseases (ADD) and acute respiratory infections (ARI), whereas positive outcomes are likely to occur in livestock production, influenced by population growth. The advantage of the BN approach is the possibility of updating beliefs in the probabilities of occurrence of events, especially in developing, intermediate cities with information-limited contexts.     

Widening the gap: White ignorance,race relations and the consequences for Aboriginal people in Australia

White ignorance has a critical impact on race relations and is implicated in the maintenance of Aboriginal disadvantage. Addressing this ignorance is a largely overlooked capacity-building opportunity within Australia's non-Aboriginal population. It warrants consideration as a key component of strategies targeting Aboriginal disadvantage. Despite the established links between race relations and Aboriginal well-being, Aboriginal perspectives on non-Aboriginal people rarely feature in public discourse on “Aboriginal problems.” This paper draws on data from 180 in-depth interviews with 44 Aboriginal people in Darwin on the topic of White Australian people, culture and race relations. It reports Aboriginal perceptions of White Australian ignorance across areas of great symbolic and practical significance to Aboriginal people's lives. Their experience is that most White Australians are ignorant of the history of colonisation and the complexities of its aftermath. They are ignorant of Aboriginal law, cultures and languages, and of the extent of their own ignorance. The call to address White ignorance subverts assumptions about whose ignorance and capacity must be dealt with in order to progress national goals of reconciliation, address Aboriginal disadvantage and achieve justice and equality for Aboriginal people.     

What Prompts Policy Change? Comparative Analyses of Efforts to Create Age-Friendly Cities in 14 Cities in Indonesia

Four years after an age-friendly city (AFC) assessment across Indonesia, this article presents a comparative analysis of policy changes that have taken place across different AFC dimensions and factors associated with more and less change. Nine of fourteen cities initiated changes, ranging from public declarations, regulations, and creation or expansion of services. Our findings suggest that the AFC assessment can offer a means to engage policy makers, which in turn may facilitate city-level change, particularly for larger cities with more substantive budgets and more consolidated rather than dispersed leadership; however, no single factor represented a sufficient or necessary condition for change.     

论人口老龄化程度城乡差异的转变

在中国人口老龄化过程中,农村老年人口比例日益高于城市,这是否是中国人口老龄化过程中的特有现象?本文对中国和其他国家人口老龄化过程中城乡人口老龄化的差异进行了比较研究。结果表明,在人口老龄化过程中,许多国家普遍地表现出农村人口老龄化程度高于城市的特点,即城乡倒置明显。进一步研究表明,人口老龄化城乡倒置只是人口老龄化过程中的一个阶段,它不会长期持续。当社会经济发展达到一定水平,大规模的城乡人口迁移基本完成,城市化水平大幅提高,人口因素发生改变时,人口老龄化程度农村高于城市的城乡倒置状况将发生转变,即城市老年人口比例最终将超过农村。     

均衡城镇化:大都市与中小城市协调共进

城镇化是扩大内需实现中国经济可持续发展的大战略。文章分析了当前中国城镇化发展的战略背景,研究了城镇化发展面临的战略机遇和存在的失衡状况,提出稳步推进城镇化的关键是实施均衡城镇化战略,走大都市与中小城市协调发展的道路。未来不仅要发挥大都市圈的集聚效应和规模效应,也要重视在都市圈以外地区发展中小城市和县城,积极推进农村城镇化。同时要引导劳动力和产业向中西部的回归与转移,促进区域协调发展。     

Fingerprint-based background checks for personal care workers: Stakeholder views of policy criteria

Decision makers face difficult choices when tasked with identifying and implementing appropriate mechanisms for protecting the elderly and other vulnerable adults from abuse. A pilot project involving fingerprint-based criminal history background checks for personal care workers in Michigan has supplied an opportunity to examine one such mechanism. In conjunction with the pilot project, we have conducted a stakeholder analysis with the aim of informing decision makers about stakeholder perceptions of standard policy criteria like effectiveness, efficiency, and equity. We employed focus groups and a Web-based survey to collect data from stakeholders. While stakeholders generally see fingerprint-based background checks for personal care workers as potentially effective and as a net benefit, they also point to a variety of contingencies. They also recognize difficulties and constraints for government involvement. This preliminary analysis provides solid foundational information for decision makers and for more extensive benefit–cost analysis.     

Personal and Professional Knowledge of and Experience With Suicide and Suicide Prevention Among Stakeholders in Clinical and Community Practice

Community-dwelling veterans at risk for suicide may be in contact with a variety of providers in agency-based settings that offer health and human services. The study aim is to describe the perspective of agency-based clinical and community providers who may come into contact with veterans in need of suicide prevention services and to examine the nature of their personal and professional relationships to individuals at risk for suicide among this sample.

This study reports on qualitative data from a sample of Veterans’ Affairs (VA) and community providers serving veterans and military families in one Midwestern state (N = 70). Providers completed a survey assessing exposure to suicide, including contact with and relationship to someone suicidal, and organizational characteristics of the providers’ employing agencies. Semi-structured interview questions probed for the nature of how they would react with suicidal individuals. Most providers (94%) had some prior contact with someone who was suicidal, and nearly three quarters (77%) knew someone who had died by suicide. Providers reported powerful emotional responses of sadness and remorse to suicidal experiences. While these providers interact with veterans and military families as part of their jobs, they may have their own history of being exposed to suicide, both professionally and personally.