Picking the Winners: Politician vs. Voter Predictions of Two Controversial Ballot Measures

Abstract Both politicians and voters were asked to predict outcomesof two Oregon ballot measures in 1982. As expected, politicians'predictions always were closer to the mark than voters' were.Further, voters showed stronger signs of wishful thinking (the"Looking-Glass effect") in their predictions than did politicians.Using published preelection polls apparently improved politicians'accuracy in 1982, as well as voters' accuracy in a separate1984 survey. No other sources of data improved predictive accuracy.Findings have implications for theories of representative governmentand are consistent with a new theory of public opinion.     

Statistical materials. Part 3: fertility,mortality, and natural increase

In this one-page statistical summary, data are presented for the USSR as a whole on fertility, mortality, and natural increase. The data are for five-year intervals from 1940 to 1980 and for single years from 1980 and are presented in terms of both totals and rates.     

Treatment of the emotionally disturbed,mildly retarded youngster in the foster care system

This paper demonstrates the need for a broad array of clinical services in treating the emotionally disturbed, mildly retarded youngster in the foster care system. A hypothesis suggests that cognitive deficits and borderline pathology are interrelated, and that treatment involves modifications of traditional therapeutic techniques. The definition of clinical is expanded to include seemingly concrete and environmental services, in addition to the office therapy session. Finally, some systemic impediments to effective treatment of the population are explored.This paper was completed as a requirement of the Post-Master's Program in Advanced Clinical Social Work of Hunter College School of Social Work.     

The therapeutic utilization of canines in a child welfare setting

This article describes the therapeutic use of canines in child welfare work. The chronically rejected child, or those who virtually spend their entire youth in care, tend to develop a withdrawn, depressed, and suspicious posture toward their relations with other people. This ultimately results in their failure to respond to conventional treatment modalities. Under these circumstances, the canine intervention may prove to be a valuable adjunct, helping to develop and to expedite the process of the therapeutic alliance.This article is a revised version of one presented to meet the requirements for the Masters in Social Work Degree from Hunter College School of Social Work.     

Basic humanitarian principles applicable to non-nationals

This article examines the general status in international law of certain fundamental human rights to determine the minimum "no derogation" standards, and then surveys a number of formal agreements between stages governing migration matters, while examining some of the standard-setting work undertaken by the International Labor Organization (ILO) and other institutions. Article 13 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, proclaims the right of everyone to leave any country, including his or her own. The anti-discrimination provision is widely drawn and includes national or social origin, birth, or other status. Non-discrimination is frequently the core issue in migration matters; it offers the basis for a principles approach to questions involving non-nationals and their methodological analysis, as well as a standard for the progressive elaboration of institutions and practices. As a general rule, ILO conventions give particular importance to the principle of choice of methods by states for the implementation of standards, as well as to the principle of progressive implementation. Non-discrimination implies equality of opportunity in the work field, inremuneration, job opportunity, trade union rights and benefits, social security, taxation, medical treatment, and accommodation; basic legal guarantees are also matters of concern to migrant workers, including termination of employment, non-renewal of work permits, and expulsion. The generality of human rights is due not because the individual is or is not a member of a partucular group, and claims to such rights are not determinable according to membership, but according to the character of the right in question. The individualized aspect of fundamental human rights requires a case-by-case consideration of claims, and the recognition that to all persons now certain special duties are owed.     

Gender,academic careers,and the social psychology of aging

Because of cultural, historical and other social structural factors, men and women with the same chronological age have had quite different career trajectories. This paper examines how the different career-paths of men and women academics create differences in their images of aging, self and work. In-depth interviews (N=47) were conducted with a sample of male and female professors, currently between fifty and sixty years of age. Male respondents nearly uniformly followed continuous, linear careers while the women's careers were, with equal uniformity, discontinuous. Data suggest that this difference in career routes fashions different gender timeclocks, i.e., different experiences of aging.     

The utilitarian criterion,finite sensibility,and the weak majority preference principle

This study is a further analysis of the approach taken by Yew-Kwang Ng to derive the utilitarian criterion. Specific for the model is that individual preferences are finitely sensible. In this framweork an analysis of the consequences on social preferences when different kinds of value premises are imposed is made. It is found that the utilitarian criterion is the unique consequence only for very special choices of the value premise. In addition, uniqueness requires the underlying preferences be cardinal. It is also found that finite sensibility induces approximate cardinalization of preferences.I am grateful to Y.-K. Ng, two anonymous referees and an editor of this journal for helpful and constructive comments on earlier versions of this paper. The research was financially supported by the Swedish Council for Research in the Humanities and Social Sciences     

The encoding and decoding of liking from behavioral cues in both auditory and visual channels

Fifty high school students met in same-sex dyads for the first time over a cup of coffee in an experimental room designed as a comfortable living room. They then responded to a questionnaire designed to measure liking and perceived similarity. The interactions were video-taped. Two different panels of 6 judges later either viewed (video only) or heard (audio-only) the videotape and raed the subjects behavior on a number of scales. The judges also judged the degree of liking felt by the subjects by estimating subjects responses to the questionnaire. In addition gaze behaviour during the interaction was measured. Factor analysis demonstrated that 60% of the variance in The Liking Scale was attributed to 14 items relating to liking and perceived similarity. A separate factor to assess perceived similarity could not be found. Twenty-nine percent of the variance in the liking reported by subjects was predicted by an interrelated pattern of expressing behaviour including approproate looking, mutual gaze, self-disclosure, synchrony in movement and gesture, expressiveness of the face and liveliness of the voice. Video judges liking correlated 0.33 with subjects liking and 48% of the variance in their judgements was explained by the valid cues of looking and expressiveness of the face. Audio judges liking, although it correlated at 0.34 with video judges liking, did not correlate at all with subjects' liking because of an over-reliance on the important content cues. It is suggested that major problems leading to decoding inaccuracy may be over-reliance on content cues and over-confidence in the possibility of decoding accuracy. The evidence suggests that differences between subjects in encoding may be considerable.     

Migration and development in the Caribbean: relating policies and people

Throughout the 20th century, the US has feared that political instability in the Caribbean area could be exploited by adversaries; therefore, the US and the nations of the Caribbean share a compelling interest in the region's development. The dramatic increase in legal and illegal immigration to the US from the Caribbean in the last 2 decades has offered an additional human reason for US interest in the region. This migration has also created a new source of dependence and vulnerability for the region. Curtailment of migration would undoubtedly affect the region, and if the effect were social and political instability, then the US would also share those consequences. The 1984 Conference on Migration and Development in the Caribbean held discussions to 1) enhance the benefits of migration to Caribbean development, 2) identify development strategies, policies, and projects that would reduce pressures that have accelerated the rate of international migration, making it less manageable and more costly, and 3) identify ways to reduce dependence on migration by expanding employment and assisting economies in the region to become more self-reliant. The attitudes of both US and Caribbean participants seemed to reflect a considerable degree of ambivalence on the migration issue. The US views itself as "a nation of immigrants" and yet is troubled by the recent large influx of immigrants, particularly illegal migrants and refugees. While Americans recognize that the "brain" reduces the development capacity of developing countries, the US still needs and benefits from young immigrants trained in the sciences, engineering, and computers. Caribbean participants were also ambivalent about immigration. They consider immigration "a way of life" and a "right," but they also recognize that there are significant developmental costs to some types of migration. While many want the US to keep a wide open door to Caribbean immigrants, they are aware that most Caribbean Community (CARICOM) governments are currently closing the door to immigrants even from other CARICOM countries.