Forecasting on British election night 1997

An account is given of methods used to predict the outcome of the 1997 general election from early declared results, for use by the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) in its election night television and radio coverage. Particular features of the 1997 election include extensive changes to constituency boundaries, simultaneous local elections in many districts and strong tactical voting. A new technique is developed, designed to eliminate systematic sources of bias such as differential refusal, for incorporating prior information from the BBC's exit poll. The sequence of forecasts generated on election night is displayed, with commentary.     

Consumption Over the Life Cycle

This paper estimates a structural model of optimal life‐cycle consumption expenditures in the presence of realistic labor income uncertainty. We employ synthetic cohort techniques and Consumer Expenditure Survey data to construct average age‐profiles of consumption and income over the working lives of typical households across different education and occupation groups. The model fits the profiles quite well. In addition to providing reasonable estimates of the discount rate and risk aversion, we find that consumer behavior changes strikingly over the life cycle. Young consumers behave as buffer‐stock agents. Around age 40, the typical household starts accumulating liquid assets for retirement and its behavior mimics more closely that of a certainty equivalent consumer. Our methodology provides a natural decomposition of saving and wealth into its precautionary and life‐cycle components.     

A Longitudinal Analysis of Adolescent Substance Use and School Motivation Among African American Youth

Cross‐sectional research has shown a link between adolescent substance use and educational motivation. The purpose of the current study was to examine this link in a longitudinal sample of African American youth. The study examined the interrelationships between alcohol and both marijuana use and school motivation over the high school years and their effect on graduation in 681 African American adolescents (50.8% female). School motivation was shown to relate to subsequent alcohol use throughout high school and marijuana use early in high school. School motivation did not affect graduation status, but alcohol and marijuana use were related to a lower likelihood of graduating from high school. Some gender differences and differences among those who had tried alcohol or marijuana at the first wave as opposed to those who had not tried each substance were found. The findings support a systems model where school experiences can affect substance use, which, in turn, can affect the completion of high school.     

The joint paediatric–forensic examination in child abuse

The investigation of alleged child abuse should be multi-professional and coordinated to minimize distress to the child and family. Much attention has focused on the joint interview process, with less prominence being given to the medical component of the initial investigation. No standard practice exists in the United Kingdom regarding the conduct of the medical examination or in the training requirements of the doctors who perform the examination. We present a model of practice which has evolved in Edinburgh and the Lothians, drawing on the combined expertise and experience of paediatricians and police surgeons, which has operated for over 2 years; and propose a formal accreditation process for doctors who wish to specialize in the field of child abuse. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Self‐Help Groups in the Welfare State: Treatment Program or Voluntary Action?

This article identifies two different perspectives used when studying self‐help groups: the professional treatment perspective and the voluntary action perspective. An outline of the perspectives leads to a discussion of their consequences for self‐help group research. The authors categorize about five hundred scientific publications from all over the world on the basis of the perspectives they present on self‐help groups; the results indicate that different perspectives seem to be preferred in different countries and when discussing different subjects. Finally, the authors suggest questions and concepts that the perspectives generate, and they emphasize the importance of being aware of which perspective is used in the study of self‐help groups.     

Marriage and Child Well-Being: Research and Policy Perspectives

Over the past decade, the linkages between marriage and child well-being have attracted the attention of researchers and policy makers alike. Children's living arrangements have become increasingly diverse and unstable, which raises important questions about how and why family structure and stability are related to child outcomes. This article reviews new research on this topic, emphasizing how it can inform policy debates about the role of marriage in reducing poverty and improving child outcomes. It also pays special attention to new scholarship on unmarried, primarily low-income families, the target of recent federal marriage initiatives, to appraise the potential contributions of family research to ongoing policy discussions.     

Single Custodial Fathers' Involvement and Parenting: Implications for Outcomes in Emerging Adulthood

Using a sample of 3,977 youths from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY97), this study examines the unique characteristics of single‐custodial‐father families with adolescents and the effects of single fathers' involvement and parenting on outcomes in emerging adulthood. Findings suggest that single‐custodial‐father families are distinct from single‐mother and 2‐biological‐parent families in terms of sociodemographic characteristics, parenting styles, and involvement. Parenting styles and involvement mediate the differences between single‐father families and 2‐parent families in terms of high school completion and disconnectedness and partially mediate differences for single‐custodial‐father families with a partner. Family and sociodemographic characteristics are also associated with being disconnected for adolescents residing with a cohabiting custodial father.