A Quantitative Assessment of the Risks from Illegally Imported Meat Contaminated with Foot and Mouth Disease Virus to Great Britain

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is considered by many as the most important animal disease in the world. FMD is highly contagious and outbreaks incur significant costs as affected countries are severely limited in their ability to trade. A number of trade commodities may be contaminated with FMD virus (FMDV) including animal products, for example, meat. As a member of the European Union, Great Britain (GB) has put in place a number of regulations to prevent the importation of pathogens in imported meat products. However, the illegal importation of meat provides a route by which safety controls may be circumvented and meat from FMD affected areas may be imported. This study assesses the FMD infection risk posed to the livestock population of GB from the illegal importation of meat, and estimates the major contributors to this overall risk, through the development of a quantitative risk assessment model. From model results, the total amount of illegal meat entering GB each year is estimated on average to be 11,875 tonnes. with 90% certainty that this is between 4,398 and 28,626 tonnes per year; of which between 64.5 and 565 kg are contaminated with FMDV. This flow of illegal meat results in an estimate of a frequency of FMD infection in GB livestock of 0.015 cases of infected animals per year, with 90% certainty it is between 0.0017 and 0.053. Imports from the region Near and Middle East account for 47% of this risk, and 68% of the risk is attributed to bone-in and dried de-boned products.     

Erhöht Globalisierung die Ungleichheit der Einkommen?

The article tests the thesis that globalization increases the earnings inequality of households. It extends the time series data set of Alderson and Nielsen (2002) who supported the globalization thesis. Alternative models provide no evidence that foreign trade, foreign investment, and migration increase inequality. The article gives reasons for these results and shows that OECD countries pass through an endogenous sectoral and demographic crisis in the transition to post-industrial service societies. Therefore, the paper adapts Kuznets’ theorem of sector dualism to the subsectors of the service economy. The polarization of value addition within the service sector appears as the crucial determinant of increased earnings inequality of households.     

Optimal designs for generalized linear models

Summary This paper solves some D-optimal design problems for certain Generalized Linear Models where the mean depends on two parameters and two explanatory variables. In all of the cases considered the support point of the optimal designs are found to be independent of the unknown parameters. While in some cases the optimal design measures are given by two points with equal weights, in others the support is given by three point with weights depending on the unknown parameters, hence the designs are locally optimal in general. Empirical results on the efficiency of the locally optimal designs are also given. Some of the designs found can also be used for planning D-optimal experiments for the normal linear model, where the mean must be positive. This research was carried out in part at University College, London as an M.Sc. project. Thanks are due to Prof. I. Ford (University of Glasgow) and Prof. A. Giovagnoli (University of Perugia) for their valuable suggestions and critical observations.     

Communication apprehension and reactions to proxemic violations

An experiment was designed to examine the role of a person's predispositions toward communication in reactions to violations of proxemic expectations. Working with Burgoon's (1983) violations of nonverbal expectations model, Buller and Burgoon (1986) predicted that predispositions may bias evaluations of initiator reward and violation valence. Apprehensive individuals should unfavorably evaluate the initiator, negatively valence a violation and comply less, while nonapprehensive individuals should favorably evaluate the initiator, positively valence a violation, and comply more. Alternately, this paper proposes that predispositions may affect arousal-induction rather than initiator evaluation and violation valencing. Following Patterson (1983), apprehensives should experience more arousal and comply more to reduce the arousal, whereas nonapprehensives should experience less arousal and comply less. Four initiators engaged 90 subjects in experimental conversations which ended with a request for the subjects' signature on a petition. Initiators either remained at the normative distance, moved one seat closer, or moved one seat farther from the subject. Results showed that apprehensives and subjects experiencing close violations complied more, suggesting that communication apprehension influences arousal-induction. Communication apprehension had no main effect on perceptions of initiator attractiveness and similarity, implying that arousal not perceptions of the initiator is affected by predispositions toward communication. Initiator gender again emerged as an important characteristic which influences a subject's perceptions of initiator reward.     

Ropes course training for youth in a rural setting: “At first I thought it was going to be boring ...”

Outdoor structured activities, such as Ropes Challenge Courses, are typically utilized as interventions for youth coming from urban settings. Evaluation of such programs is scanty at best. In this instance, the course experience is used as a prevention tool for high risk youth in a remote, rural setting of high unemployment, alcohol problems, and low income. The authors discuss the effectiveness of this approach, and the intended and unintended consequences for the rural community at large. The evaluation design relies on extensive qualitative methodology as well as quantitative methods to capture the unique nature of this rural project.     

Art therapy as a modality for crisis intervention: Children express reactions to violence in their community

Ten days after the Symbionese Liberation Army's shoot out in Los Angeles in 1974, the Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, Department of Family Child Psychiatry, Thalians Community Mental Health Center, sent a crisis team of three psychotherapists to a school in the black community. The psychotherapists used an art therapy approach with a third grade classroom of 21 black children. The team's procedure helped the children ventilate their reactions to a frightening event which occurred in their neighborhood. This paper describes the art therapy techniques which were utilized, the children's vivid pictorial and verbal expressions accompanied by the psychological aspects of their responses.     

Nurses and the dying: Symbolic interaction as a precipitator of dying “stages”

The impact of nurses' attitudes upon their communication with dying patients is examined from the symbolic interaction perspective. Data were obtained from participant observation in the intensive care and postintensive care units of a hospital and from in-depth interviewes with additional nurses. Characteristics of the situation, nurses, and patients were examined in terms of an Interpersonal Reactions Model. The strength of this model is its emphasis upon the effect unintended judgments may have on a patient's self-image. A stage in the dying process may simply be a response to the nonverbally communicated expectations of interactors with dying persons. This research focuses on the first stage of this model—the differential reaction of nurses to the varying characteristics of patients within the constraints of extra-care situations.This is a revision of a paper presented at the annual meeting of the Mid-South Sociological Association in Little Rock, Arkansas, in November, 1980.