VARIABLE WEIGHT DISTRIBUTED LAGS: HOUSING COMPLETIONS IN AUSTRALIA1

This paper presents a convenient way of allowing the weights of a (truncated) geometric lag distribution to vary in the short-run around the average relationship. An alternative version which amounts to an inverted-V lag distribution is developed. The models are applied to the relationship between work done on dwellings and dwelling commencements in Australia over the past decade.     

Survivors of suicide. Emerging counseling strategies

1. Effective intervention with survivors of suicide requires knowledge of the diverse sequelae of response including blame, anger, guilt, shame, search for why, and feelings of stigmatization. 2. Fearing blame and stigmatization, survivors of suicide may be reluctant to contact helping professionals. 3. Duration and intensity of bereavement is mediated by the survivors' nature of the relationship with the deceased and their perception of the preventability of the death. 4. Group counseling is an effective intervention because it addresses the issue of disenfranchised grief.     

Drinking and other risk taking behaviors of enlisted male soldiers in the US Army

High-risk drinking is among the top three prevention priorities of the Department of Defense. Research suggests that enlisted male soldiers are particularly at risk for unhealthy drinking behaviors. 292,023 enlisted male soldiers who responded to a Health Risk Appraisal (HRA) survey between 1990 and 1998 were dichotomized into high and low-risk drinking groups. Logistic regression analysis showed that high-risk drinkers wore seatbelts less frequently, were more likely to drive > 15 mph over the speed limit, and to smoke more than 20 cigarettes/day. This high-risk group was predominately young (< 25), Caucasian, high school educated or less, and most likely employed as infantrymen or craftsworkers. The two highest risk occupational groups (infantrymen and craftsworkers) differ from each other, and from other Army occupations. Intervention programs should include safe driving habits and smoking cessation, as well as high-risk drinking, and should be tailored to the specific needs of the group at highest risk.     

Correlates contributing to involvement in violent behaviors among young adults

The study examines the extent to which gender, personality attributes, household, community, and environmental factors are associated with violent behaviors in young adulthood. The authors present findings from a sample of 765 21-year-old individuals participating in a drug and delinquency prevention study. Personality attributes, opportunities, and social acceptability of antisocial behaviors were identified as accounting for gender differences and having more influence on violent behavior than environmental correlates. Implications for preventive intervention are discussed.     

Smooth Estimation of the Reliability Function

Problems with censored data arise quite frequently in reliability applications. Estimation of the reliability function is usually of concern. Reliability function estimators proposed by Kaplan and Meier (1958), Breslow (1972), are generally used when dealing with censored data. These estimators have the known properties of being asymptotically unbiased, uniformly strongly consistent, and weakly convergent to the same Gaussian process, when properly normalized. We study the properties of the smoothed Kaplan-Meier estimator with a suitable kernel function in this paper. The smooth estimator is compared with the Kaplan-Meier and Breslow estimators for large sample sizes giving an exact expression for an appropriately normalized difference of the mean square error (MSE) of the two estimators. This quantifies the deficiency of the Kaplan-Meier estimator in comparison to the smoothed version. We also obtain a non-asymptotic bound on an expected ₁-type error under weak conditions. Some simulations are carried out to examine the performance of the suggested method.     

What skills do physician leaders need now and in the future?

The role of the physician leader is moving beyond traditional medical staff issues. A recent national survey of physician leaders shows a growing need for education on specific technical, leadership, and practical skills. The results reveal the medical leadership skills that physician executives consider important today, and provide a window to the future about the skills that will be important tomorrow. Physicians say they need training now in quality assurance, clinical benchmarking, decision-making, and strategic planning. And when they gaze into the future and see the rapid changes throughout health care, they say they'll need more training in communication, organizational change, effective listening, and systems thinking.