Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation

Threshold models have a wide variety of applications in economics. Direct applications include models of separating and multiple equilibria. Other applications include empirical sample splitting when the sample split is based on a continuously‐distributed variable such as firm size. In addition, threshold models may be used as a parsimonious strategy for nonparametric function estimation. For example, the threshold autoregressive model (TAR) is popular in the nonlinear time series literature. Threshold models also emerge as special cases of more complex statistical frameworks, such as mixture models, switching models, Markov switching models, and smooth transition threshold models. It may be important to understand the statistical properties of threshold models as a preliminary step in the development of statistical tools to handle these more complicated structures. Despite the large number of potential applications, the statistical theory of threshold estimation is undeveloped. It is known that threshold estimates are super‐consistent, but a distribution theory useful for testing and inference has yet to be provided. This paper develops a statistical theory for threshold estimation in the regression context. We allow for either cross‐section or time series observations. Least squares estimation of the regression parameters is considered. An asymptotic distribution theory for the regression estimates (the threshold and the regression slopes) is developed. It is found that the distribution of the threshold estimate is nonstandard. A method to construct asymptotic confidence intervals is developed by inverting the likelihood ratio statistic. It is shown that this yields asymptotically conservative confidence regions. Monte Carlo simulations are presented to assess the accuracy of the asymptotic approximations. The empirical relevance of the theory is illustrated through an application to the multiple equilibria growth model of Durlauf and Johnson (1995).     

What explains frontline workers' views on poverty? A comparison of three types of welfare sector institutions

The study analysed views on poverty among Finnish frontline workers in three welfare sector institutions. Two different institutional logics, universal and selective, and two sectors, the public and the voluntary, were represented. A nationwide survey among social security officials, municipal social workers and diaconal workers was utilised (N = 2,124). The methods applied included factor analysis, the examination of means and multivariate analysis of variance. Frontline workers were found to support structural reasons for poverty regardless of institutional affiliation. Analyses, however, also revealed significant differences between the institutions, but not of the kind expected. Social security officials, working in a universal institution, were less likely to endorse structural factors and more likely to endorse individualistic poverty explanations than were social and diaconal workers. Type of education and personal political ideology, respectively, were also found to be of significant importance for poverty perceptions, independent of institutional logic.     

Correlates of depression in self-neglecting older adults: A cross-sectional study examining the role of alcohol abuse and pain in increasing vulnerability

ABSTRACT

Self-neglect among older adults results in increased morbidity and mortality rates. Depression is strongly linked to self-neglect and when untreated, severely complicates management of health and functional outcomes. The study aims to identify factors correlated with depression to inform approaches to service recruitment and retention that improve long-term outcomes. The sample included urban community-dwelling older adults (n = 96) 65 years of age and older with Adult Protective Services-substantiated self-neglect. All participants completed a range of validated cognitive, functional, and self-report demographic and clinical measures around health and mental health functioning. A secondary data analysis using multivariable logistic regression revealed that a positive screen for alcohol abuse, low self-rated health, and higher self-reported pain were associated with significantly higher odds of self-reported depression. Further research is needed to understand the temporality between these correlates and depression and to inform prevention and intervention practices for self-neglecting older adults.     

Orchestras as “Ensembles of Possibility”: Understanding the Experience of Orchestral Musicians Through the Lens of Communities of Practice

This article examines the professional culture of a UK symphony orchestra and the ways the musicians perceive themselves as a Community of Practice (CoP). The study draws on data from semi-structured interviews. Findings illuminated aspects of a CoP among the musicians, including having a shared purpose, valuing their collective endeavor, and experiencing tension between individual and collective development. These elements provide insights for our understanding of CoP, and highlight critical aspects of musical and interpersonal interactions that emerging professional musicians and advanced students need to develop and skillfully balance if they are to operate effectively within an orchestral CoP.     

Gender,Nation, Rape: Bosnia and the Construction of Security

The mass rapes in Bosnia brought gendered security problems onto the international agenda to an unprecedented extent. This article examines the debate surrounding whether these rapes should be characterized as a security problem which warranted international attention and possibly intervention. This debate evolved around the question whether wartime rape should be understood as an individual risk or a collective security problem;and whether it should be defined in national or in gendered terms. The empirical part of the article analyses the three dominant representations of the Bosnian mass rapes: 'rape as normal/Balkan warfare' argued that rape did not constitute a collective security problem and the international community had therefore no reason or responsibility to intervene; the "rape as exceptional/Serbian warfare" representation read the rapes through national lenses and argued that the international community should intervene militarily in defence of the Bosnian government; and the third representation, "Balkan patriarchy", claimed the privileged of a gendered reading of the rapes, the conflict in Bosnian should, according to this discourse, be understood as involving women on the one side and the patriarchal nationalistic leaderships on the other. The article concludes that the political impact of each of the representations is difficult to assess, but that the willingness of the International Crime Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia to pursue rape-related indictments constitutes an important step towards the recognition of wartime rape as a collective security problem.     

Enterprise policy evaluation: is there a 'new' way of doing it?

Given that most economies are now in recession, policymakers are looking to small firms to act as engines of economic growth; this has led to a revived interest in the role of enterprise policy. The 'new' enterprise policy is systemic, promoting and shaping externalities and capabilities. At its core are R&D, innovation and education. It encapsulates a shift from direct intervention towards creating an enabling environment for small firms and entrepreneurship. At present there is a research lacuna regarding the evaluation of such policies. The aim of this paper is to fill this gap by making two key contributions. First, I demonstrate that traditional enterprise evaluation metrics are too narrow: they focus almost exclusively on private firm impacts, rather than broader societal impacts caused by the pervasive nature of 'new' enterprise policies. Second, I illustrate how logic models could be expanded to account for these broader impacts.     

Measuring Youth Living Conditions in Europe: A Multidimensional Cross-Country Approach

Social Indicators Research - Argentina and Brazil report the highest incidence of the fear of crime across Latin America. Although the spread of crime and victimization may explain these trends...