A comparison of stepwise common singular spectrum analysis and horizontal multi-channel singular spectrum analysis

The problem of forecasting a time series by using information provided by a second time series is considered. Two multivariate extensions of Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) are compared in terms of forecast error: Horizontal Multi-channel SSA and Stepwise Common SSA. Different signal structures, defined in terms of trend, period, amplitude and phase, are investigated. In broad terms we find that neither Horizontal Multichannel SSA nor Stepwise Common SSA is best in all cases. Horizontal MSSA is outperformed particularly in cases where different trends are considered.     

The fiscal impact of immigration to welfare states of the Scandinavian type

In this paper, we examine the potential of immigration to strengthen fiscal sustainability, which is under pressure by an ageing population in many European countries. We look at a particularly challenging case, namely that of Denmark, which has extensive tax-financed welfare programmes that provide a high social safety net. The analysis is based on a forecast of the entire Danish economy made using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model with overlapping generations. We present life cycle estimates of the potential fiscal impact of immigration considering the cost of immigration on the margin as well as on average. The main conclusion is that immigrants from Western countries have a positive fiscal impact, while immigrants from non-Western countries have a large negative one, which is also the case when considering only non-refugee immigrants. The negative effect is caused by both a weak labour market performance and early retirement in combination with the universal Danish welfare schemes.     

Stein-like 2SLS estimator

ABSTRACT

Maasoumi (1978 Maasoumi, E. (1978). A modified Stein-like estimator for the reduced form coefficients of simultaneous equations. Econometrica 46:695–703.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) proposed a Stein-like estimator for simultaneous equations and showed that his Stein shrinkage estimator has bounded finite sample risk, unlike the three-stage least square estimator. We revisit his proposal by investigating Stein-like shrinkage in the context of two-stage least square (2SLS) estimation of a structural parameter. Our estimator follows Maasoumi (1978 Maasoumi, E. (1978). A modified Stein-like estimator for the reduced form coefficients of simultaneous equations. Econometrica 46:695–703.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) in taking a weighted average of the 2SLS and ordinary least square estimators, with the weight depending inversely on the Hausman (1978 Hausman, J. A. (1978). Specification tests in econometrics. Econometrica 46:1251–1271.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) statistic for exogeneity. Using a local-to-exogenous asymptotic theory, we derive the asymptotic distribution of the Stein estimator and calculate its asymptotic risk. We find that if the number of endogenous variables exceeds 2, then the shrinkage estimator has strictly smaller risk than the 2SLS estimator, extending the classic result of James and Stein (1961 James W, ., Stein, C. M. (1961). Estimation with quadratic loss. Proceedings of the Fourth Berkeley Symposium on Mathematical Statistics and Probability 1:361–380. [Google Scholar]). In a simple simulation experiment, we show that the shrinkage estimator has substantially reduced finite sample median squared error relative to the standard 2SLS estimator.     

Declining employment success of immigrant males in Sweden: Observed or unobserved characteristics?

Focusing on Nordic and Yugoslavian immigrant males, we study the determinants of employment success of natives and immigrants in Sweden. Furthermore, we investigate the reasons behind the arising gap in employment success between Swedes and immigrants from 1970 to 1990. In a decomposition analysis, we find that the main part of the decline in the employment probability of immigrants relative to Swedes over time is explained by a change in coefficients (unobserved characteristics) rather than a change in determinants (observed characteristics). Received: 22 June 1998/Accepted: 23 March 2000     

Clinicians Play with Mud,and It's the Best Thing for Us: An Interview With Alistair Campbell

Alistair Campbell is Research Editor for the ANZJFT. He is a Senior Lecturer in Clinical Psychology and Director of the Psychology Clinic at James Cook University in Townsville. He speaks provocatively with Ben Hansen about research and training in family therapy, about accountability to our clients, and about practice.     

Project Employ: engineering hope and breaking down barriers to homelessness

The homeless population in the US has dramatically increased in the past two decades. People who are homeless often lack skills sets such as stress management and social skills, independent living skills, and skills for vocational and leisure engagement. Best practice vocational education and training programs for individuals who are homeless recognize that success in the worker role often hinges on a person's capacity to manage day-to-day living. Life skills and pre-employment training are essential components of vocational programs but no more important than interpersonal skill development including anger management, developing self esteem and motivation, building goal setting capacity, and skills for money management, personal budgeting and self-advocacy. These areas of performance have all been traditionally included in occupational therapy's domain of practice. This article describes Project Employ, a grant funded supportive employment program that has grown out of collaboration between Duquesne University's Department of Occupational Therapy and Bethlehem Haven, an emergency shelter and residential recovery program and primary service provider for homeless people in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. The purpose of this article is to describe the history, structure and outcomes of Project Employ.     

Abhängigkeitserkrankung am Arbeitsplatz — eine Coachingaufgabe

Addiction on the job — a task of coaching The article describes the typical appearances and developments of addiction on the job, intending to show which multiple demands a manager has to fulfil, if he wants to handle the situation competent. It also describes possible solutions as well as the approach and routines of coaching in such a case.     

Expertization of Everyone and the Revolt of the Client*†

American society is witnessing a dramatic explosion and dissemination of knowledge, accompanied by the increasing refusal of patients, customers, students, and other types of clients to passively receive the services of the expert in any body of knowledge or skill. There has been an expansive growth of occupational experts and a demand on the part of clients for a change in the relation. Knowledge monopolization is decreasingly possible due to the activities of mass communication and of the literate public, and clients are becoming varied in the amount of knowledge with which they turn to the expert. Thus, while the political and economic groups are increasingly depending on the expert elite for plans and programs, the members at all levels of society are demanding rights of decision making.