Kriminalitätsfurcht — Ausdruck generalisierter ängste und schwindender gewissheiten?

Die vorliegende Studie ist mit der empirischen überprüfung der Generalisierungsthese in der Kriminalit?tsfurchtforschung befasst. Nach der Generalisierungsthese handelt es sich bei Kriminalit?tsfurcht nicht um eine spezifische Reaktion auf Kriminalit?tsrisiken, sondern um eine Projektion sozialer und existenzieller ?ngste, die aus gesellschaftlichen Transformationsprozessen gespeist werden. Kriminalit?t dient dabei als Metapher, um die transformationsbedingten ?ngste artikulierbar zu machen. Anhand von Befragungsdaten aus einer ?sterreichischen Stadt kann gezeigt werden, dass ein solches Verst?ndnis der Entstehung kriminalit?tsbezogener Unsicherheitsgefühle durchaus angemessen ist. Ein aus der Generalisierungsthese abgeleitetes Strukturgleichungsmodell kann die Daten besser reproduzieren als ein konkurrierendes „disorder”-Modell.     

Scenario Tree Modeling to Analyze the Probability of Classical Swine Fever Virus Introduction into Member States of the European Union

The introduction of classical swine fever virus (CSFV) into a country free of disease without vaccination may have huge consequences in terms of both disease spread and economic losses. More quantitative insight into the main factors determining the probability of CSFV introduction (PCSFV) is needed to optimally use resources for the prevention of CSFV introduction. For this purpose a spreadsheet model was constructed that calculates the annual PCSFV into member states of the European Union (EU). The scenario pathway approach was used as most probabilities in the model are very small. Probability distributions were used to take into account inherent variability of input parameters. The model contained pathways of CSFV introduction including the import of pigs and pork products, returning livestock trucks, and contacts with wild boar. All EU member states were included as possible sources of CSFV. Default results for the Netherlands showed a mean overall annual PCSFV of approximately 0.06, indicating that the Netherlands can expect CSFV introduction on average once every 18 years from the pathways and countries included in the model. Almost 65% of this probability could be attributed to the pathway of returning livestock trucks. The most likely sources of CSFV introduction were Germany, Belgium, and the United Kingdom. Although the calculated probabilities were rather low when compared with expert estimates and recent history, the most likely causes of CSFV introduction indicated by the model were considered to be realistic. It was therefore concluded that the model is a useful tool to structure and analyze information for decision making concerning the prevention of CSFV introduction.     

Credibility, Information Preferences, and Information Interests

The Seveso Directive of the European Union demands that information be provided to the public by companies and authorities about facts, risks, and behaviors related to hazardous facilities, in particular chemical facilities. On behalf of the Commission of the European Communities, a survey was run in five European countries on the credibility of various information sources. This article describes the results of the German study. 430 persons were interviewed with a questionnaire of 50 items, in particular about their perceptions and evaluations of technical risks, the credibility of sources of information about chemical risks, their preferences for receiving risk information from these sources, and their interests in receiving information. Major findings are great differences in credibility, differentiated information preferences, and strong information interests. Surprisingly, credibility played only a minor role with regard to the respondents'information preferences and interests.     

A Model for building a Co-operative World

In November, 1977, a seminar was held in Caracas, the Capital of Venezuela. It was organized by the Intergovernmental Committee for European Migration (ICEM), in which representatives of 17 Latin American countries and observers from Austria, Canada, Germany, Japan, the Netherlands, Portugal, Switzerland and the United States of America participated and which dealt with this ‘theme of the future’. A number of resolutions adopted by the Seminar originated from an address delivered by the author. This address was generally considered to open new perspectives. The Seminar in Caracas followed a similar one held the year before in San José. In this seminar the foundations were laid for a new form of personal co-operation between Europe and Latin America.     

Das Stabilitätsproblem in der Ökonometrie

Statistical Papers - Ein allgemeines ökonometrisches Modell M wird eingeführt. Für dieses werden die Begriffe Relevanzzeitraum und Relevanzregion definiert. Der Begriff des...     

The mastering of complexity as a problem of the Social Sciences

The main purpose of this paper is the old methodological problem of the mastering of complexity in the Social Sciences. In sociology the traditional solution is displayed by some methods for the external reduction of complexity. Although some authors in the history of sociology tried to formulate a heuristic program for an empirical-analytical action science, they finally became victims of their own criticism of previous sociology: to simplify the social reality instead of establishing an increasing capacity of complexity for societal-theory building. This more historical aspect and first part of this paper is followed by some newer methodological reflections: to increase the capacity of complexity by a strategy of internal reduction of complexity or better: internal complexity processing. Instead of simplification the strategy of differentiation is proposed.     

On the power of the durbin-watson test under high autocorrelation

In the linear regression model without an intercept, it is known that the limiting power of the Durbin-Watson test (as correlation among errors increases) equals either one or zero, depending on the underlying regressor matrix. This paper considers the limiting power in the model with an intercept, and proves that it will never equal one or zero.     

Forecasting Vector ARMA Processes With Systematically Missing Observations

The following two predictors are compared for time series with systematically missing observations: (a) A time series model is fitted to the full series X_t , and forecasts are based on this model, (b) A time series model is fitted to the series with systematically missing observations Y _τ, and forecasts are based on the resulting model. If the data generation processes are known vector autoregressive moving average (ARMA) processes, the first predictor is at least as efficient as the second one in a mean squared error sense. Conditions are given for the two predictors to be identical. If only the ARMA orders of the generation processes are known and the coefficients are estimated, or if the process orders and coefficients are estimated, the first predictor is again, in general, superior. There are, however, exceptions in which the second predictor, using seemingly less information, may be better. These results are discussed, using both asymptotic theory and small sample simulations. Some economic time series are used as illustrative examples.