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91.
Jannik Labrenz Dominic Edelmann Jonas S. Heitmann Helmut R. Salih Annette Kopp-Schneider Richard F. Schlenk 《Pharmaceutical statistics》2023,22(2):236-247
Dose-finding designs for phase-I trials aim to determine the recommended phase-II dose (RP2D) for further phase-II drug development. If the trial includes patients for whom several lines of standard therapy failed or if the toxicity of the investigated agent does not necessarily increase with dose, optimal dose-finding designs should limit the frequency of treatment with suboptimal doses. We propose a two-stage design strategy with a run-in intra-patient dose escalation part followed by a more traditional dose-finding design. We conduct simulation studies to compare the 3 + 3 design, the Bayesian Optimal Interval Design (BOIN) and the Continual Reassessment Method (CRM) with and without intra-patient dose escalation. The endpoints are accuracy, sample size, safety, and therapeutic efficiency. For scenarios where the correct RP2D is the highest dose, inclusion of an intra-patient dose escalation stage generally increases accuracy and therapeutic efficiency. However, for scenarios where the correct RP2D is below the highest dose, intra-patient dose escalation designs lead to increased risk of overdosing and an overestimation of RP2D. The magnitude of the change in operating characteristics after including an intra-patient stage is largest for the 3 + 3 design, decreases for the BOIN and is smallest for the CRM. 相似文献
92.
An artificial intelligence-based rule-induction approach to the analysis of stock market prediction is presented. A single investment analyst was used as the expert for this study. Predicting intermediate fluctuations in the movement of the market for nonconservative investors was selected as the decision to analyze. Commercially available rule-induction software was used to generate rules that predicted the market calls of the market analyst and the actual movements of the market. Rules predicting actual market movement performed better than rules predicting the analyst's calls and better than the analyst himself. Such an approach may prove useful in designing a decision support system for market analysts or in improving the decision-making processes of such analysts. The dynamic nature of the stock market represents a substantially different decision environment than those previously analyzed by learning-from-example (LFE) techniques. This study provides insights into the limits and applications of LFE approaches. 相似文献
93.
94.
So far, it was unclear to what extent working in deep cold-storage depots has an influence on female order-pickers body core temperature and skin surface temperature considering different age groups. Physiological effects of order-picking in a chill room (+3°C) and cold store (-24°C) were examined on 30 female subjects (Ss), classified in two age groups (20- to 35- year-olds and 40- to 65-year-olds). The body core temperature was taken every 15 min at the tympanum and the skin surface temperature was recorded continuously at seven different positions. Working in the chill room induced a decrease of the body core temperature up to 0.5K in comparison to the value at the outset for both age groups which could be compensated by all Ss during the breaks. Working in the cold store caused a decline up to 1.1K for the younger Ss and 1.3K for the older Ss. A complete warming-up during the breaks was often not possible. Regarding the skin surface temperature, working in the chill room can be considered as unproblematic, whereas significantly lower temperatures at nose, fingers and toes, associated with substantial negative subjective sensations, were recorded while working in the cold store. 相似文献
95.
We exploit the German separation and later reunification to investigate whether political regimes can shape attitudes about appropriate roles for women in the family and the labor market. During the divided years, East German institutions encouraged female employment, while the West German system deterred women, in particular mothers, from full-time employment. Our results show that East Germans are significantly more likely to hold egalitarian sex-role attitudes than West Germans. Despite a scenario of partial policy convergence after reunification, we find no evidence for a convergence process in gender attitudes. Indeed, if anything, the gap in attitudes rather increased. 相似文献
96.
97.
This paper provides some new results on the asymptotics of goodness-of-fit (GOF) tests based on minimum p-value statistics. In connection with detectability of sparse signals in high-dimensional data, various tests were proposed and investigated during the last decade, especially with respect to asymptotic properties. Minimum p-value GOF statistics were already investigated as minimum level attained statistics by Berk and Jones with respect to Bahadur efficiency. The distribution of minimum p-value GOF statistics is closely related to the distribution of higher criticism statistics, the distribution of the supremum of a normalized Brownian bridge, and the supremum of an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process. 相似文献
98.
99.
Helmut Staubmann 《?sterreichische Zeitschrift für Soziologie》2004,29(1):114-116
100.
Ine H. J. Van Der Fels-Klerx Louis H. J. Goossens Helmut W. Saatkamp & Suzan H. S. Horst 《Risk analysis》2002,22(1):67-81
This paper presents a protocol for a formal expert judgment process using a heterogeneous expert panel aimed at the quantification of continuous variables. The emphasis is on the process's requirements related to the nature of expertise within the panel, in particular the heterogeneity of both substantive and normative expertise. The process provides the opportunity for interaction among the experts so that they fully understand and agree upon the problem at hand, including qualitative aspects relevant to the variables of interest, prior to the actual quantification task. Individual experts' assessments on the variables of interest, cast in the form of subjective probability density functions, are elicited with a minimal demand for normative expertise. The individual experts' assessments are aggregated into a single probability density function per variable, thereby weighting the experts according to their expertise. Elicitation techniques proposed include the Delphi technique for the qualitative assessment task and the ELI method for the actual quantitative assessment task. Appropriately, the Classical model was used to weight the experts' assessments in order to construct a single distribution per variable. Applying this model, the experts' quality typically was based on their performance on seed variables. An application of the proposed protocol in the broad and multidisciplinary field of animal health is presented. Results of this expert judgment process showed that the proposed protocol in combination with the proposed elicitation and analysis techniques resulted in valid data on the (continuous) variables of interest. In conclusion, the proposed protocol for a formal expert judgment process aimed at the elicitation of quantitative data from a heterogeneous expert panel provided satisfactory results. Hence, this protocol might be useful for expert judgment studies in other broad and/or multidisciplinary fields of interest. 相似文献