Risk-Based Analysis of the Danish Pork Salmonella Program: Past and Future

The Danish pork Salmonella control program was initiated in 1993 in response to a prominent pork-related outbreak in Copenhagen. It involved improved efforts at slaughter hygiene (postharvest) and on-farm (preharvest) surveillance and control. After 10 years, 95 million Euros, significant reductions in seropositive herds, Salmonella positive carcasses, and pork-attributable human cases (PAHC), questions have arisen about how best to continue this program. The objective of this study was to provide some analysis and information to address these questions. The methods used include a computer simulation model constructed of a series of Excel workbooks, one for each simulated year and scenario ( http://www.ifss.iastate/DanSalmRisk ). Each workbook has three modules representing the key processes affecting risk: seropositive pigs leaving the farm (Production), carcass contamination after slaughter (Slaughter), and PAHC of Salmonella (Attribution). Parameter estimates are derived from an extensive farm-to-fork database collected by industry and government and managed by the Danish Zoonosis Centre ( http://www.food.dtu.dk ). Retrospective (1994–2003) and prospective (2004–2013) simulations were evaluated. The retrospective simulations showed that, except for the first few years (1994–1998), the on-farm program had minimal impact in reducing the number of positive carcasses and PAHC. Most of the reductions in PAHC up to 2003 were, according to this analysis, due to various improvements in abattoir processes. Prospective simulations showed that minimal reductions in human health risk (PAHC) could be achieved with on-farm programs alone. Carcass decontamination was shown as the most effective means of reducing human risk, reducing PAHC to about 10% of the simulated 2004 level.     

Perceived tax evasion and the importance of trust

Using Swedish individual survey data, we analyze the perception of tax evasion in terms of ten different taxes. We find large variation across taxes, highlighting the importance of studying different taxes separately rather than treating tax evasion as one common phenomenon. We focus on the importance of trust in taxpayers and in politicians. Those who do not trust their fellow citizens are more likely to believe that they are evading taxes, but distrust in politicians has an even greater effect, especially for redistributive and fiscally motivated taxes. Hence, it is important for politicians to be perceived as trustworthy in order to be able to collect taxes for maintaining the welfare state.     

The male immigrant–native employment gap in Sweden: migrant admission categories and human capital

Journal of Population Research - Despite having a celebrated labor market integration policy, the immigrant–native employment gap in Sweden is one of the largest in the OECD. From a...     

Is Affluence a Risk for Adolescents in Norway?

Studies suggest that affluence poses a risk for adolescents, but this has rarely been studied outside the United States. We examined the unique and additive roles of family and school affluence for adolescent outcomes among 10th‐grade students (n = 7,203) in Oslo, Norway. Multilevel models were estimated separately by gender. For both boys and girls, school affluence was a risk for alcohol abuse and family affluence was a risk for conduct problems, although for conduct the risk was only at the very highest end of income distribution and adolescents in very poor families were also at risk. There was also a complex pattern of risk for early sexual debut; family affluence posed risk, but school affluence appeared protective.     

Modeling marginal features in studies of recurrent events in the presence of a terminal event

We study models for recurrent events with special emphasis on the situation where a terminal event acts as a competing risk for the recurrent events process and where there may be gaps between periods during which subjects are at risk for the recurrent event. We focus on marginal analysis of the expected number of events and show that an Aalen–Johansen type estimator proposed by Cook and Lawless is applicable in this situation. A motivating example deals with psychiatric hospital admissions where we supplement with analyses of the marginal distribution of time to the competing event and the marginal distribution of the time spent in hospital. Pseudo-observations are used for the latter purpose.

     

Probability of Low‐Altitude Midair Collision Between General Aviation and Unmanned Aircraft

Unmanned aircrafts (UA) usually fly below 500 ft to be segregated from manned aircraft. However, while general aviation (GA) usually do fly above 500 ft in areas where UA are allowed to operate, GA will at times also fly below 500 ft. Consequently, there is a distinct risk of near‐miss encounters as well as actual midair collisions (MACs). This work presents a model for determining this risk based on physical parameters of the aircraft and actual figures for the numbers of GA in a given airspace, as well as the probability of having GA below 500 ft. The aim is to achieve a prediction with a precision better than one order of magnitude relative to the true MAC rate value. The model is applied to Danish airspace and the MAC rate for unmitigated operations of UA is found to be approximately 10^?6 MAC per flight hour. The model is particularly well suited for beyond visual line‐of‐sight operations, and is useful for UA operators for conducting risk assessment of planned operations as well as for regulators for determining appropriate operational requirements.     

Institutionalized Ignorance as a Precondition for Rational Risk Expertise

The present case study seeks to explain the conditions for experts’ rational risk perception by analyzing the institutional contexts that constitute a field of food safety expertise in Denmark. The study highlights the role of risk reporting and how contextual factors affect risk reporting from the lowest organizational level, where concrete risks occur, to the highest organizational level, where the body of professional risk expertise is situated. The article emphasizes the role of knowledge, responsibility, loyalty, and trust as risk‐attenuation factors and concludes by suggesting that the preconditions for the expert's rationality may rather be a lack of risk‐specific knowledge due to poor risk reporting than a superior level of risk knowledge.     

Migration, Return, and Development: An Institutional Perspective

The development community has been rather reluctant in the past to integrate migration as a parameter for development policies, as often advocated by politicians and the migration community. The following analysis demonstrates that the position of development institutions on this matter has evolved, e.g., in the direction of increased interest among development practitioners to look at remittances as a tool for development. The article discusses the importance of brain drain and possibilities for using return migration as a brain gain. It introduces the concept "migration band" as an aggregate expression of Martin's "migration hump" for individual countries. Furthermore, it suggests policy options for a foreign input policy mix to developing countries composed of foreign direct investment, trade liberalizations, aid, remittances, return migration, and improved governance.