Can fertility be estimated from current pregnancy data?

Summary This paper explores the feasibility of estimating fertility from reports on current pregnancies collected in single-round sample surveys. Data from 15 countries in the World Fertility Survey are used to evaluate the possibilities. The results indicate that neither the age pattern of fertility nor the total fertility ratio can be reliably estimated from current pregnancy data. For almost all countries, the total fertility ratio based on recent births is higher than that based on current pregnancies, even when the latter estimate is restricted to higher durations of pregnancy.     

Far eastern patterns of Mortality

Summary In this paper a mortality pattern is identified which has not previously been described by model mortality schedules and seems to have occurred only in populations in the Far East. Mortality schedules in Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Korea during the past several decades have been characterized by excessively high death rates of men at the older ages. This excess mortality has progressively diminished and most recent death rates for men show only slight deviations from West model life tables. An examination of statistics on causes of death suggests that tuberculosis is at least partly responsible for the excess mortality of men.     

Women's status and family planning in Haiti

"The paper argues that women's status in Haiti is a factor favorable to the spread of modern contraception and a potential rapid demographic transition from high to low fertility. After briefly reviewing recent theories on the determining of fertility declines, the paper considers women's status in Haiti. It discusses family patterns, conjugal unions, and economic activities. Finally, it reviews current patterns of contraceptive use and considers how these are related to various aspects of women's status."     

The future of migration

These three papers on the future of migration make up a summary report on the Conference of National Experts held at the OECD in Paris, May 13-15, 1986. The papers concern possible policy options, international migration as a basic element of economic development, and conclusions about migration trends from the present to the long-term future. The author of the concluding paper remarks that "the Conference brought representatives of all of the Organization's Member countries together with eminent economists and social scientists to discuss the possible and probable outlook for migratory movements in the years to come. The purpose was not to define international norms in this respect, nor to draft one or more international agreements or a legal instrument having the force of law, but to review all the problems raised by that outlook."     

Variations in Fertility and Earning Patterns among Immigrants in the United States, 1970–1980: Assimilation or Disruption?*

"This paper examines the assimilation of immigrants in familial and economic fields.... Specific objectives are as follows: (1) to describe fertility and earning patterns among immigrants to the United States in 1970-1980, from several countries of origin, and (2) to describe some effects of assimilation, human capital, and the dual labor market perspectives on immigrant earnings." Findings vary in both fertility and economic categories for migrants depending on whether they are from developed or developing countries. (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA)     

The emergence of Dutch casinos: A case study of mismarketing?

Ostensibly, the approval of legalized casino type gambling in the Netherlands was intended to combat illegal and uncontrolled gambling. Very early on, however, the plan conceived and implemented by the Netherlands Parliament demonstrated serious mismarketing strategies and tactics. The new legal casinos were appealing to people other than those engaged in illegal gambling, in particular foreign tourists and local high rollers. This paper attempts to analyze the ultimate process of goal displacement, as the state casino industry allowed economic objectives to supplant desires to utilize legal casinos primarily as controls over illegal gambling.     

Tapping human potential: an interview with Norman Cousins

Active, responsible partnership between patient and physician creates the best environment for healing. The patient with a strong will to live--who summons spirit, faith, love, hope, purpose, determination, festivity--helps doctors get the best out of medical science.     

Modeling American marriage patterns

"This article investigates the application of the three-parameter, Coale-McNeil marriage model and some related hyperparameterized specifications to data on the first marriage patterns of American women. Because the model is parametric, it can be used to estimate the parameters of the marriage process for cohorts that have yet to complete their first marriage experience. Empirical evidence from three surveys is reported on the ability of the model to replicate and project observed marriage behavior. The results indicate that the model can be a useful tool for analyzing cohort marriage data and that recent cohorts are showing relatively strong proclivities to both delay and forego marriage. Consistent with earlier work, the results also indicate that education is a powerful covariate of the timing of first marriage and that race is a powerful covariate of its incidence." Data are from the U.S. Current Population Survey for 1976 and 1985 and Cycle III of the National Survey of Family Growth for 1982.