MODEL-UNBIASEDNESS AND THE HORVITZ-THOMPSON ESTIMATOR IN FINITE POPULATION SAMPLING

Under the, notion of superpopulation models, the concept of minimum expected variance is adopted as an optimality criterion for design-unbiased estimators, i.e. unbiased under repeated sampling. In this article, it is shown that the Horvitz-Thompson estimator is optimal among such estimators if and only if it is model-unbiased, i.e. unbiased under the model. The family of linear models is considered and a sample design is suggested to preserve the model-unbiasedness (and hence the optimality) of the Horvitz-Thompson estimator. It is also shown that under these models the Horvitz-Thompson estimator together with the suggested sample design is optimal among design-unbiased estimators with any sample design (of fixed size n ) having non-zero probabilities of inclusion for all population units.     

Confidence Bands for Comparison of Transition Probabilities in a Markov Chain Model

We consider graphs, confidence procedures and tests that can be used to compare transition probabilities in a Markov chain model with intensities specified by a Cox proportional hazard model. Under assumptions of this model, the regression coefficients provide information about the relative risks of covariates in one–step transitions, however, they cannot in general be used to to assess whether or not the covariates have a beneficial or detrimental effect on the endpoint events. To alleviate this problem, we consider graphical tests based on confidence procedures for a generalized Q–Q plot and for the difference between transition probabilities. The procedures are illustrated using data of the International Bone Marrow Transplant Registry.     

Chinese widowers' self-perception of growth: an exploratory study

Presence of growth after traumatic events was introduced to the academic community about a decade ago (Tedeschi & Calhoun, 1995). From the conventionally neglected perspective of Chinese widowers, this paper reports seventeen Chinese widowers' views on growth after conjugal loss. Findings seem to suggest that Chinese widowers would define growth as human learning, a definition probably influenced by Confucian teachings. Furthermore, contrary to claims made by Tedeschi and Calhoun (2004), it was found that growth may occur for some individuals without the presence of distress if the individuals have either a stable philosophy of life and death or optimism to buffer their distress or a sense of responsibility to suppress their distress.     

Subjective Well-Being, Societal Condition and Social Policy – The Case Study of a Rich Chinese Society

The article looks at whether or not social policy and other societal-condition variables contribute to the subjective well-being of life satisfaction. It firstly argues that social policy needs to pay more attention to the study of subjective well-being. Then, it reviews the literature and finds that people in rich societies generally have higher levels of life satisfaction. But the findings of a social survey on the level of and variance in life satisfaction in a rich Chinese society reveal the contrary. The empirical data reflects a life satisfaction pattern along strong income and class lines. It also confirms that social policy and other societal-condition variables have different degrees of impact on life satisfaction. At last, implications of the findings for social policy are discussed.     

Those Who Pay the Piper Calls the Tune: Meta-Organisation and Capacities of the Third Sector in Migration Policies

VOLUNTAS: International Journal of Voluntary and Nonprofit Organizations - In this paper, we examine the changing landscape of migration policy work conducted by civil society organisations (CSOs)...     

Family‐centered kindergarten social work services in Hong Kong: A pilot project

Social work services at schools in Hong Kong will begin a new chapter in kindergartens in 2018–2019 school year. Early childhood professionals have long considered family‐centered service delivery best practice. This paper reports a pioneer project on a family‐centered approach in kindergarten social work services in Hong Kong. The project was illustrated according to the following family‐centered principles: (a) The family as the unit of attention, (b) Linking families with community resources, (c) Flexible and individualized service provision, and (d) Creating partnerships and supportive relationships. The value and contributions of family‐centered social work services in kindergartens and implications for social work training in Hong Kong are discussed.     

A Bayesian method for safety signal detection in ongoing blinded randomised controlled trials

Sponsors have a responsibility to minimise risk to participants in clinical studies through safety monitoring. The FDA Final Rule for IND Safety Reporting requires routine aggregate safety evaluation, including in ongoing blinded studies. We are interested in estimating the probability that the true adverse event rate in the experimental arm exceeds that in the control arm. We developed a Bayesian approach that specifies an informative meta-analytic predictive prior on the event probability in the control arm and an uninformative prior on that in the experimental arm. We combined these priors with a mixture likelihood that considers each patient in the ongoing blinded study may belong to the experimental or control arm. This allowed us to estimate the quantity of interest without unblinding. We evaluated our method by simulation, pairing scenarios that differed only in whether a safety signal was present or missing, and quantifying the ability of our model to discriminate using signal detection theory. Our approach shows benefit. It detects safety signals more reliably with greater sample sizes and for common rather than rare events. Performance does not deteriorate markedly when historical studies exhibit heterogeneous hazards or non-constant hazards. Our method will allow us to monitor safety signals in ongoing blinded studies with the goal of earlier identification and risk mitigation. Our method could be adapted to use informative priors on both arms or predictive covariates where pertinent data exist. We stress that ongoing safety monitoring should involve a multi-disciplinary team where statistical methods are paired with medical judgement.     

Engaging with happy-sounding music promotes helping behavior in 18-month-olds

Engaging with music fosters prosocial responding in infants and toddlers. In this pilot study, we examined whether music that expresses contrasting emotions (happy vs. sad) was associated with toddlers’ helpfulness. Seventy-five 18-month-olds from Hong Kong China were randomly assigned to engage with music with an experimenter in one of two conditions: happy- or sad-sounding music. After the musical engagement task, toddlers from both conditions completed the same set of helping tasks. For instrumental (action-based) helping, toddlers were significantly more helpful after engaging with happy-sounding music than with sad-sounding music. Our initial findings suggest that cues linked to happy- and sad-sounding music influence toddlers’ prosocial responses.     

Documents in a Field of Action: Using Documents to Address Research Questions About Nonprofit and Voluntary Organizations

VOLUNTAS: International Journal of Voluntary and Nonprofit Organizations - In this article we show the potential of using documents to answer research questions pertinent to nonprofit and voluntary...