非农业户籍会使人更幸福吗

中国的户籍制度相对比较特殊,它曾衍生了大量“农转非”等户口买卖现象,这使人不禁产生疑问：非农业户籍会使人更幸福吗？本文基于北京大学CFPS数据,构建了一个影响幸福程度的包括户籍因素在内的有序因变量模型。我们不但详述了户籍类型与居民幸福程度的内在联系机制,同时还分析众多主客观因素对幸福的影响。研究发现,户籍类型转变的实质是社会行动者基于户籍制度功能而做出的理性选择行为,不同时间和空间的户籍制度功能会引起幸福程度的差异;生活态度、人际和教育等因素也会显著影响幸福程度。因此,户籍制度改革过程中,重视户籍制度的功能而非形式是明智之举;同时,完善农村就业机制、增强个人自信心是提升社会行动者幸福程度的有效手段。     

Flexible mixture modelling using the multivariate skew-t-normal distribution

This paper presents a robust probabilistic mixture model based on the multivariate skew-t-normal distribution, a skew extension of the multivariate Student’s t distribution with more powerful abilities in modelling data whose distribution seriously deviates from normality. The proposed model includes mixtures of normal, t and skew-normal distributions as special cases and provides a flexible alternative to recently proposed skew t mixtures. We develop two analytically tractable EM-type algorithms for computing maximum likelihood estimates of model parameters in which the skewness parameters and degrees of freedom are asymptotically uncorrelated. Standard errors for the parameter estimates can be obtained via a general information-based method. We also present a procedure of merging mixture components to automatically identify the number of clusters by fitting piecewise linear regression to the rescaled entropy plot. The effectiveness and performance of the proposed methodology are illustrated by two real-life examples.     

Forecasting a point process with an ARIMA model

ABSTRACT

In fitting a power-law process, we show that the construction of the empirical recurrence rate time series either simplifies the modeling task, or liberates a point process restrained by a key parametric model assumption such as the monotonicity requirement of the intensity function. The technique can be applied to seasonal events occurring in spurts or clusters, because the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) procedure provides a comprehensive set of tools with great flexibility. Essentially, we consolidate two of the most powerful modeling tools for the stochastic process and time series in the statistical literature to handle counts of events in a Poisson or Poisson-like process.     

Introduction to the Special Issue on Marketing and Operations Management Interfaces and Coordination

In this special issue, the contributing authors address several emerging marketing and operations interface problems and develop innovative approaches for solving them. Specifically, by explicitly modeling active consumer behavior under different pricing schemes, the papers in this special issue examine how firms can coordinate their marketing and operations to improve their competitiveness and profit. The papers also provide insights on how to develop and operate new and innovative market mechanisms.     

Non-stationary structural model with time-varying demand elasticities

The paper considers local linear regression of a time series model with non-stationary regressors and errors. Asymptotic property of the local linear estimator is derived under a new dependence measure of non-stationary time series. We apply the local linear regression method to estimate the “time-varying” coefficients of an economic-causal model for the industrial sector of the U.S. economy. Nonparametric bootstrap test on the time-varying coefficients strongly suggests that the price/income elasticities of the U.S. durable goods demand are time-varying.     

Mean functions based on meta-mixtures in nonhomogeneous Poisson processes

This paper deals with the software reliability model based on a nonhomogeneous Poisson process. We introduce new types of mean functions which can be either NHPP-I or NHPP-II according to the choice of the distribution function. The proposed mean function is motivated by the fact that a strictly monotone increasing function can be modeled by a distribution function and an unknown distribution function approximated by a mixture of beta distributions. Some existing mean functions can be regarded as special cases of the proposed mean functions. The EM algorithm is used to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters in the proposed model.     

Revisiting Welfare States. Performance in Reducing Poverty through Longitudinal Multinational Comparison

This article presents the results of a comparative study on the effects of social welfare programs in selected developed countries. Using a fully comparable longitudinal data file from nationally representative household surveys, we estimate the poverty rate and poverty gap before and after social welfare transfers and taxes in order to identify the direct effects of social welfare on poverty. In general, the findings reveal that countries with conservative welfare regimes demonstrate higher poverty performance than do countries with liberal welfare regimes. In particular, the United States lagged behind through all periods under investigation, whereas Germany exhibited the highest performance in poverty reduction.     

How Lesbian and Heterosexual Women View Relationships,Sex, and Virginity: Explorations With a Singapore Sample

Thirty-eight lesbian and 38 heterosexual women in Singapore (ages 21 to 35) discussed relationships, sex, and virginity in focus groups. Views were mostly similar between the two groups, although there were differences. All participants defined relationships as romantic involvement. However, while heterosexual participants equated commitment with monogamy, lesbian participants distinguished them. All participants differentiated between having sex (for thrill and fun) and making love (for expressing love), although there were differences in the purposes of making love. Primacy of penetration was found in defining virginity loss, but for many participants, virginity was important only insofar as it indicated sexual permissiveness.     

Social change and nationalism in China's popular songs

ABSTRACT

The unveiling of memorials to those who fell in the First World War were highly solemn, dramatic and emotional events. Yet, while much attention has been given by historians to memorials and the purposes behind memorialisation, there has been less discussion of just how the feelings of the public were stimulated and provoked. Most accounts concentrate on the aesthetics and symbolism of the monuments themselves, and the speeches given by the officiating parties and individuals at unveilings. In doing so, however, they miss what was perhaps the most important emotional aspect of these ceremonies: music. This article argues that non-verbal sounds best expressed the raw emotions of the occasions and, in doing so, gave them their power and significance in establishing the mood of the moment and the public’s attachment to the memorials. Examining the major city memorials of Scotland as well as the National Memorial at Edinburgh Castle, it focuses on the significance of the bagpipes and Scotland’s most famous lament, ‘The Flowers of the Forest’, in providing the emotional high points of the ceremonies.     

Alternative estimator for the parameters of a mixture of two binomial distributions

The method of moments has been widely used as a simple alternative to the maximum likelihood method, mainly because of its efficiency and simplicity in obtaining parameter estimators of a mixture of two binomial distributions. In this paper, an alternative estimate is proposed which is as competitive as of the method of moments when comparing the mean squared error and computational effort.