Der „Kleine Mann“ und die AfD: Was steckt dahinter?

Critics of my work have found a negative effect of the social status on the likelihood of someone voting for the AfD. However, these findings do not sufficiently confirm the Modernisation Losers’ thesis that I had formulated and testest in this journal in 2017. The reason is that attitudes towards society vary dependent on social status, and these attitudes have no reference to economic modernisation. When controlling the influence of these attitudes in multivariate analyses, status effects will disappear. One of these attitudes is the rejection of refugees: AfD voters often perceive refugees as competitors for scarce resources and a threat to the cultural homogeneity of German society. This means that the effect of social status on the intention of voting for AfD is mediated by attitudes towards immigration. I find evidence for this thesis in some of the contributions of my critics and in new analyses based on the German Social-Economic Panel (GSOEP). My conclusion is that a policy of redistribution will not be suitable for winning back AfD voters, because it misses the decisive motive for their voting.     

Multiscale change point detection for dependent data

In this article we study the theoretical properties of the simultaneous multiscale change point estimator (SMUCE) in piecewise-constant signal models with dependent error processes. Empirical studies suggest that in this case the change point estimate is inconsistent, but it is not known if alternatives suggested in the literature for correlated data are consistent. We propose a modification of SMUCE scaling the basic statistic by the long run variance of the error process, which is estimated by a difference-type variance estimator calculated from local means from different blocks. For this modification we prove model consistency for physical-dependent error processes and illustrate the finite sample performance by means of a simulation study.     

Optimal designs for the Michaelis–Menten model with correlated observations

In this paper we investigate the problem of designing experiments for generalized least-squares analysis in the Michaelis–Menten model. We study the structure of exact D-optimal designs in a model with an autoregressive error structure. Explicit results for locally D-optimal designs are derived for the case where two observations can be taken per subject. Additionally standardized maximin D-optimal designs are obtained in this case. The results illustrate the enormous difficulties to find exact optimal designs explicitly for nonlinear regression models with correlated observations.     

Efficient design of experiments in the Monod model

Summary. Estimation and experimental design in a non-linear regression model that is used in microbiology are studied. The Monod model is defined implicitly by a differential equation and has numerous applications in microbial growth kinetics, water research, pharmacokinetics and plant physiology. It is proved that least squares estimates are asymptotically unbiased and normally distributed. The asymptotic covariance matrix of the estimator is the basis for the construction of efficient designs of experiments. In particular locally D -, E - and c -optimal designs are determined and their properties are studied theoretically and by simulation. If certain intervals for the non-linear parameters can be specified, locally optimal designs can be constructed which are robust with respect to a misspecification of the initial parameters and which allow efficient parameter estimation. Parameter variances can be decreased by a factor of 2 by simply sampling at optimal times during the experiment.     

Broadening the Scope of Benchmarking: Radar Charts and Employment Systems

Over the last few years, ‘benchmarking’ advanced to a key word in organizational development and change management. Originally a tool in business studies to search for best practice that led to superior performance, increasingly benchmarking also became practice in non-profit and public institutions. Notably, the European Commission uses benchmarking as an instrument to monitor its employment guidelines. The radar chart approach is one of a number of special analytical tools that has been developed in this connection. The paper discusses the advantages and limits of benchmarking labour market performance by radar charts, recommends a broadening of the scope by using the employment systems approach and provides, in both cases, examples of application.     

GENDER DIFFERENCES IN MOTIVATIONAL CROWDING OUT OF WORK PERFORMANCE

This paper shows that prior financial incentives induce a crowding‐out effect when incentives are discontinued. In our real‐effort experiment workers receive a piece rate before monetary incentives are substituted by a one‐time payment. In this case, workers' performance significantly drops when receiving the one‐time payment. The effect is driven by a fraction of men who reduce effort substantially, whereas women constantly perform well. We find that this motivational crowding‐out effect disappears when men do not have prior experience of a piece rate. In a series of control treatments, we discard several alternative explanations besides motivational crowding out. (JEL C91, J16, M54)     

Influences of mechanical exposure biographies on physical capabilities of workers from automotive industry - a study on possible dose-response relationships and consequences for short and long term job rotation

This paper describes a field study in production areas of a vehicle manufacturing plant, where 106 male workers (aged from 20 to 63 years) were examined and interviewed by the authors. Aim of study was to identify relationships between specific physical worker capabilities and doses of mechanical exposures using self-developed standardized questionnaires as well as a battery of work-specific tests. The dependent variables are different "physical capabilities", classified using a five-point rating scale with regard to the grade of limitation of the respective capability. Independent variables are "age" and specific "mechanical exposures". Several exposures were combined and multiplied with their respective durations in order to determine doses on three different body regions - back, shoulder-neck and upper limbs. There are significant positive correlations between "age" and "dose of mechanical exposure on back/shoulder-neck/upper limbs region". The analysis of the relationship between dose of exposure and different capabilities to lift or reposition loads (with variable weight) shows weak significant correlations for all three body regions. Data analysis shows no significant correlations between any dose of mechanical exposure and capabilities to work in awkward body postures.These results should be considered in age management programs when scheduling future employee assignments to workplaces, especially for production systems where manual handling tasks are dominant.     

Semiparametric shape-invariant models for periodic data

This article presents a novel shape-invariant modeling approach to quasi-periodic data. We propose a dynamic semiparametric method that estimates the common cycle shape in a nonparametric way and the individual phase and amplitude variability in a parametric way. An efficient algorithm to compute the estimators is proposed. The behavior of the estimators is studied by simulation and by a real-data example.     

Embedded expertise: a conceptual framework for reconstructing knowledge orders,their transformation and local specificities

The role of science in modern democracies has long been a topic of heated debate. Recent scholarship has increasingly focused on the social construction of the science–policy–politics nexus. For understanding both the local specificity of concrete configurations and general trends much is to be gained from an analytical framework. In a first introductory section we describe already existing categorizations and typologies, identifying a research gap: a framework for reconstructing the discursive forces shaping the science–policy–politics interface based on both mutually exclusive and exhaustive categories. Our answer is the concept of knowledge orders. Building on already existing scholarship in this field, we define knowledge orders as discursive orders structuring the production of expertise. We distinguish between three levels of knowledge orders: the generation and communication of science-based expertise, the regulation of these processes, and reflexive discourses in which the epistemic authority and the political relevance of science-based expertise are (de)legitimized and renegotiated and the regulation of the science–policy–politics nexus debated. Each level can be analyzed in terms of the criteria based on which competence is attributed (social dimension) and at when political or scientific criteria of relevance and validity are to be applied (procedural dimension). The framework is illustrated by referring to both well-known examples in science studies and our own research on science–policy–politics arrangements in the field of food safety and employment policy.     

Orphans at risk in sub-Saharan Africa: evidence on educational and health outcomes

Based on comparable data for eleven sub-Saharan African countries with especially high rates of orphanhood, we examine how orphanhood affects children’s educational and health outcomes. Using household fixed-effects to control for influences at the household level, we show that orphans do not only fare worse than non-orphans because they tend to live in poorer households, but that they are also at a disadvantage compared to non-orphans within the same household. They lag behind in education and are more often malnourished and stunted. (The coefficients on the health outcomes are only statistically significant for some of the countries and some of the health measures, however.) Moreover, we show that non-orphaned children not living with a biological parent are also worse off compared to biological children of the same caregivers. Educational gaps are particularly evident for children whose mother is deceased or absent. The additional effect of paternal death or absence is rather modest or insignificant in most countries.