Paths,Punctuations and Policy Learning—Comparing Patterns of European use of Scientific Expertise during the Covid-19 Crisis

Public Organization Review - The article examines changes in the role and position of experts in policy making in the EU member states and four additional West European mature democracies during...     

Rising prices,financial statements and fundamental research

Adequate consideration cannot be given to the subject of inflation accounting without a rigorous reappraisal of the nature and usefulness of published financial statements. It is argued that much fundamental research is a necessary prerequisite for the evaluation of methods of accounting in a period of inflation. Such research should begin with a consideration of the purposes to be served by the publication of financial statements. A framework is presented for such fundamental research and the results of some preliminary work outlined to assess the usefulness of financial statements in providing information to assist investors to make investment decisions. The use of financial statements by investors for this purpose is one of a number of possible objectives for financial statements.     

Are psychosocial factors associated with low-back pain among nursing personnel?

The aim of this study was to investigate whether psychosocial factors at work are related to low-back pain among nursing personnel. It was conducted as a short-term follow-up study of 200 Danish female nursing personnel, providing care for the elderly. Self-reported measures of psychosocial factors such as time pressure, emotional demands of clients, control and social support were obtained by questionnaire at baseline, while stress, physical exertion and low-back pain were reported by diary records made in two, three-day periods in the subsequent 6 months. The study examines the possible influence of psychosocial factors preceding low-back pain as well as stress and physical exertion reported simultaneously with low-back pain. Only stress was associated with low-back pain (Odds Ratio (OR)=2.3; Confidence Interval (CI)=1.3-3.9) while neither physical exertion or any of the psychosocial factors were related to low-back pain. A possible pathway connecting emotional demands of clients to low-back pain through the mediation of stress was suggested.     

Stable local computation with conditional Gaussian distributions

This article describes a propagation scheme for Bayesian networks with conditional Gaussian distributions that does not have the numerical weaknesses of the scheme derived in Lauritzen (Journal of the American Statistical Association 87: 1098–1108, 1992).The propagation architecture is that of Lauritzen and Spiegelhalter (Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 50: 157– 224, 1988).In addition to the means and variances provided by the previous algorithm, the new propagation scheme yields full local marginal distributions. The new scheme also handles linear deterministic relationships between continuous variables in the network specification.The computations involved in the new propagation scheme are simpler than those in the previous scheme and the method has been implemented in the most recent version of the HUGIN software.     

CONDITIONING AND CONCENTRATION OF PRINCIPAL COMPONENTS

This paper uses various gauges to construct principal variables that satisfy criteria of maximal scatter. The solutions coincide with Hotelling's (1933) principal components in structured ensembles and mixtures, including heavy-tailed distributions not having moments. Thus, normal-theory tests are exact in level and power under nonstandard models allowing for correlated vector observations and for certain mixtures having neither moments nor unimodal marginals.     

Choice of purchasing arrangements in insurance markets

A simple dynamic model helps explain why risk-pooling purchasing arrangements evolved for health, disability, and term life insurance but not for property, automobile, or homeowners' insurance, and why whole-life policies typify life insurance purchased on an individual basis. We show that risk-pooling purchases facilitate insurance against unpredictable changes in one's risk type, but such contracts prevail in competitive equilibrium only when the loss probabilities increase with age, as they do for health, disability, and life insurance. In contrast, when the loss probability declines with age (as it does for automobile insurance), then competitive equilibrium entails separating insurance contracts.     

Bayesian analysis of spatial point processes in the neighbourhood of Voronoi networks

A model for an inhomogeneous Poisson process with high intensity near the edges of a Voronoi tessellation in 2D or 3D is proposed. The model is analysed in a Bayesian setting with priors on nuclei of the Voronoi tessellation and other model parameters. An MCMC algorithm is constructed to sample from the posterior, which contains information about the unobserved Voronoi tessellation and the model parameters. A major element of the MCMC algorithm is the reconstruction of the Voronoi tessellation after a proposed local change of the tessellation. A simulation study and examples of applications from biology (animal territories) and material science (alumina grain structure) are presented.     

Do family planning programs enhance children's health?

The findings of the 1993 National Demographic Survey (NDS) in the Philippines provide implications for child health of family size and whether a child was wanted at the time of conception. About 15% of the more than 8000 births considered in the NDS were classified as unwanted. In 1995, the East-West Center's Program on Population has helped research centers in the Philippines to conduct an extended analysis of NDS results. Children under age 5 who had been unwanted at the time of conception (unwanted children) were almost 25% and 15% more likely to have had diarrhea or respiratory infections, respectively, in the last two weeks than those who were wanted at the time of conception (wanted children). Unwantedness had little effect on the likelihood of treatment once the child was ill, however. When the researchers controlled all other variables, including unwantedness, family size did not have a direct influence on the likelihood that a child would become ill, but it did have a significant influence on whether or not an ill child would receive treatment. Each additional sibling reduced the likelihood that an ill child would receive treatment by about 5% for diarrhea and by about 4% for respiratory infection. Another factor that influenced disease incidence was age (at 18 months, most likely to be ill with respiratory infection or diarrhea). Older children were more likely to receive treatment than younger children. Other factors influencing treatment and disease incidence were socioeconomic status and maternal educational status. These findings further justify family planning programs based on child health. They demonstrate that children suffer when they are born into a household where they are not wanted. Since about 33% of all child deaths are caused by diarrhea or respiratory infections in the Philippines, unwantedness affects the incidence of these infections, and family size has a direct effect on the likelihood an ill child will receive treatment. A policy intervention that would greatly reduce child mortality would be extremely beneficial.     

Why does migration decrease fertility? Evidence from the Philippines

We model the impact of past migration on fertility, assessing the separate effects of relative urbanization of the destination, as a proxy for norms, and post-migration employment, as a proxy for opportunity costs. In the Philippines, we find that large fertility declines accompany post-migration employment. If not followed by work for pay, the estimated fertility impact of migration is small. We find little evidence of migrant selectivity in fertility, and offer speculative evidence that fertility disruption accompanying migration may be large enough to account for much of the apparent effect of normative adaptation.