Risk analysis and risk management in an uncertain world.

The tragic attacks of September 11 and the bioterrorist threats with respect to anthrax that followed have raised a set of issues regarding how we deal with events where there is considerable ambiguity and uncertainty about the likelihood of their occurrence and their potential consequences. This paper discusses how one can link the tools of risk assessment and our knowledge of risk perception to develop risk management options for dealing with extreme events. In particular, it suggests ways that the members of the Society for Risk Analysis can apply their expertise and talent to the risks associated with terrorism and discusses the changing roles of the public and private sectors in dealing with extreme events.     

Assessing the Height of Mobility Barriers: A Methodology and an Empirical Test in the UK Retail Grocery Industry1

A profitable niche will have few entrants if the presence of significant mobility barriers impedes entry and, hence, reduces the expected rents for entrants. Identifying sources of mobility barriers is critical in explaining how incumbents can sustain competitive advantage and obtain supranormal profits (excess rents). While much of strategic management research (and strategic group research, in particular) focuses on the pursuit of sustainable performance advantages, there is relatively little empirical research exploring the dynamics of firm movement and the impact of mobility barriers on performance. The paper analyses mobility dynamics and, most importantly, develops a method to identify the location and severity of mobility barriers. The method is illustrated on a database of large multiples in the UK retail grocery industry for the period 1982–1986. It appears that there are two dimensions of strategic change that facilitate movement into profitable niches. Implications for competition and profitability are discussed.     

Individual differences in expressive style as a mediator of expectancy communication

This study investigates the role of nonverbal expressiveness and self-monitoring as mediators in the communication of teachers' expectations for student performance to a third party observer. Undergraduates were recruited to be videotaped while teaching a brief lesson to a high school student who was presented as either very bright and motivated or not. Videotapes showing only the teacher were later shown to observers who were asked for their impressions of the student who was being taught. It was hypothesized that teachers who were highly nonverbally expressive would communicate their expectations to the observers, and would thus elicit from them responses quite similar to their own. On the other hand, it was predicted that unexpressive teachers would not communicate their expectations, eliciting observer responses unrelated to their own. The predictions were supported but with a major qualification: it was found that spontaneous expressiveness interacted with self-monitoring in determining expectancy communication. The findings point towards new directions in understanding the occurrence and mediation of expectancy effects.A portion of this paper was presented at the American Psychological Association meetings in Anaheim, California, August, 1983. The research was supported in part by a University of California intramural research grant to the second author, by a UCR minigrant to the third author, and by an NIH biomedical research support equipment grant.     

Personality and the enactment of emotion

The meaning of personality traits for social interaction was investigated by exploring the personality correlates of abilities to pose emotions. This framework focuses on individual differences in socio-emotional skills. Thirty one males and 37 females were videotaped while attempting to communicate seven basic emotions nonverbally (i.e., using standard content communications), and sending success was measured by showing edited videotapes to judges. Hypothesized relationships between acting ability and scores on the Jackson Personality Research Form and the Eysenck Personality Inventory were then examined. The findings were seen to have implications for predicting individual strengths and weaknesses in social interaction as a function of certain personality traits and for understanding person perception.This research was supported in part by NIMH Grant #RO3MH31453 and Intramural Research Grants from UC Riverside to Howard Friedman, and indirectly by the Biomedical Research Support Program of NIH (#RR077010-11). We would like to thank Louise M. Prince for her assistance.     

The generational equity debate: a progressive framing of a conservative issue

This article discusses the generational equity debate in the United States--including its origins and the functions it serves. This debate has emerged in the context of concerns over the aging of the population, budgetary crises, growing health care costs, increased poverty among children, growing economic inequality, and declining faith in institutions. By potentially fragmenting support for Social Security and other social programs, the generational equity approach to framing public policy issues may serve the interests of those conservatives wishing to shrink and restructure the American approach to social welfare. However, the possibility exists that this debate could serve also as a forum to advance progressive ideas about universal access for persons of all ages to income and health benefits and employment opportunities.     

Boys or girls? Parents' preferences and sex control

Recent evidence from the U.S. and from other selected countries is examined on parent sex preferences for their children and how strongly these are held. This involves the significance of these preferences, the social and economic conditions that foster different types of preferences, and how different individuals and societies deal with them. The traditional preference for boys appears to remain nearly universal, which runs contrary to the ideal of "every child a wanted child," and also presents an obstacle to desired declines in fertility in developing countries where sons are still perceived as needed for economic and emotional security. This tendency has been turned around in Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong, and the U.S., where small families are now the ideal. 3 basic approaches to the scientific selection of sex-specific sperm for preselection, the timing of sexual intercourse, the separation of male- and female-bearing sperm followed by artificial insemination, and selective abortion after fetal sex determination indicate that an effective and practical method of sex control is still further off than predicted.     

The State of Surveying Cell Phone Numbers in the United States: 2007 and Beyond

By the late 1970s, household telephone coverage grew to exceed90 percent in the United States, and by the mid-1980s telephonesurveying of the general public had become commonplace. Nevertheless,20 years later, the ability of researchers to reach representativesamples of the U.S. public via landline (wired) telephone surveysand gather reliable data is being seriously challenged for manyreasons, especially those related to cell phones and the growthof the "cell phone only" population. However, at present thereexists no widely accepted set of Cell Phone Surveying "bestpractices" for U.S. survey researchers to follow. Despite whatsome appear to believe, surveying persons reached on cell phonenumbers in the United States currently is a very complex undertakingif one wants to do it "right," i.e. to do it legally, ethically,and in ways that optimally allocate one's finite resources togather the highest quality data, and to analyze and interpretthose data accurately. This final "wrap-up" article in the specialissue provides a review of the empirical articles in the issuewith a focus on their practical implications for the decisionsthat researchers need to make regarding sampling, coverage,nonresponse, measurement, and weighting in surveys that includeinterviews with persons reached on cell phones. The articlealso highlights the practical implications of a number of legal,ethical, and other issues that relate to surveys in the UnitedStates that include cell phone numbers. Surveying the U.S. cellphone population is possible, if at a higher cost than surveyingtheir landline counterparts, and if with less precision thancurrently can be done surveying the landline population. Thenext five years should see a considerable growth in the methodologicaland statistical know-how that the survey community uses to plan,implement, and interpret cell phone surveys. There is a greatdeal that still must be learned.     

Missouri Casino Self-Excluders: Distributions Across Time and Space

According to public health research, exposure to casinos is a risk factor for disordered gambling. Consequently, casino self-exclusion programs, which provide gamblers with the opportunity to voluntarily seek limits on their access to gambling venues, can serve as a barometer of the concentration of disordered gambling in an area. This study reports on the distribution, both temporally and geographically, of 6,599 people who applied to exclude themselves from Missouri casinos between November, 1996 and February, 2004. Analyses used Microsoft MapPoint to plot the location of casinos and self-excluders (SEs) across Missouri and its constituent counties. These regional exposure analyses showed that the Western region around Kansas City is an epicenter of disordered gambling as, to a lesser extent, is the Eastern region around St. Louis. The annual number of SE enrollments increased during the first few years of the Missouri self-exclusion program and then leveled off during the later years. These findings have important implications for public health and the development of public health interventions for disordered gamblers.     

Book Review Civil Society and Social Policy: Voluntarism in Ireland. By Fred Powell and Donal Guerin. Dublin: A&A Farmar, 1997

VOLUNTAS: International Journal of Voluntary and Nonprofit Organizations -