Hierarchical priors for Bayesian CART shrinkage

The Bayesian CART (classification and regression tree) approach proposed by Chipman, George and McCulloch (1998) entails putting a prior distribution on the set of all CART models and then using stochastic search to select a model. The main thrust of this paper is to propose a new class of hierarchical priors which enhance the potential of this Bayesian approach. These priors indicate a preference for smooth local mean structure, resulting in tree models which shrink predictions from adjacent terminal node towards each other. Past methods for tree shrinkage have searched for trees without shrinking, and applied shrinkage to the identified tree only after the search. By using hierarchical priors in the stochastic search, the proposed method searches for shrunk trees that fit well and improves the tree through shrinkage of predictions.     

From Strength to Strength: An Interview with Russell Deal

Russell Deal is the founder and managing director of Innovative Resources, the publishing arm of St. Luke's Anglicare, Bendigo. Russell is a social worker, who for the past 13 years has been a publisher. Strength Cards, now a widely used resource all over the world, were followed by The Bears, and more recently by Koala Company, Name the Frame, Mates Traits and many other resources designed to address a range of situations with individuals, families, teams and communities. Details available at www.innovativeresources.org     

The View from the Top: Senior Executives' Perceptions of Changing Management Practices in UK Companies1

There is a growing literature which suggests that the 1980s witnessed significant, even unprecedented changes in the management of organizations. This paper contributes to that literature by providing questionnaire and interview-based evidence of senior managers' perceptions of recent changes in management practice in large and medium-sized firms in the UK. The findings cover three main areas: the changing context of management practice; change initiatives in the areas of human resource management (HRM) and management levels; and the degree of success in managing change. Our findings suggest that senior managers perceive rapid and continuous change within the UK corporate sector. We conclude by suggesting that the changes reported appear to be of degree rather than a radical break with past management practices and that inconsistent means of facilitating change are seemingly being deployed.     

Making Sense of “Quality?” — Toward a Review and Critique of Quality Initiatives in Financial Services

This article provides a broad classification and critique of the theoretical and empirical approaches toward quality initiatives. These are the technical managerialist, social managerialist, and critical nonmanagerialist approaches. The technical managerialist approach is based upon the flawed assumption that practice follows policy almost like night follows day. By contrast, focusing on intraorganizational politics and the tensions of hierarchy, social managerialists recognize that outcomes are always a negotiated compromise. A majority of these authors are concerned with rendering quality initiatives more effective for management. In contrast, critical nonmanagerialists refuse to take on uncritically the assumptions and attitudes of management, and are concerned with understanding the forms and content of quality initiatives. The article provides a conceptual framework for guiding and advancing research on quality initiatives, and it offers themes and issues which warrant exploring.     

MODELLING THE 2004 SUPER 12 RUGBY UNION COMPETITION

This paper uses Bayesian methods via WinBUGS to model round robin play in the 2004 Super 12 Rugby Union competition in order to explore home advantage and how that impacts the outcome of the competition. The scores from the games are decomposed into counts of converted and unconverted tries, penalties and drop goals and are modelled as Poisson random variables with a log link. The dependent variables are the offensive and defensive capabilities of the teams along with terms for home advantage. The model is used to ascertain the effects of home advantage on the standings of the teams in the competition and, from that, how fairness in the competition could be improved.     

MORAL HAZARD AND CAPITAL STRUCTURE DYNAMICS

We base a contracting theory for a startup firm on an agency model with observable but nonverifiable effort, and renegotiable contracts. Two essential restrictions on simple contracts are imposed: the entrepreneur must be given limited liability, and the investor's earnings must not decrease in the realized profit of the firm. All message game contracts with pure strategy equilibria (and no third parties) are considered. Within this class of contracts/equilibria, and regardless of who has the renegotiating bargaining power, debt and convertible debt maximize the entrepreneur's incentives to exert effort. These contracts are optimal if the entrepreneur has the bargaining power in renegotiation. If the investor has the bargaining power, the same is true unless debt induces excessive effort. In the latter case, a nondebt simple contract achieves efficiency—the noncontractibility of effort does not lower welfare. Thus, when the noncontractibility of effort matters, our results mirror typical capital structure dynamics: an early use of debt claims, followed by a switch to equity‐like claims. (JEL: D820, L140, O261)     

Building information modelling in construction: insights from collaboration and change management perspectives

A case study is used to obtain the experiences from a contractor and their subcontractors involved with constructing the landmark Perth Stadium, which required a building information model (BIM) to be delivered for the purpose of asset management. Insights about ‘how’ the adoption of a BIM influenced the practice of collaboration and change management within the project are obtained. It was revealed that having limited experience and knowledge to deliver a model for asset management often resulted the project team ‘muddling through a problem’. This was not necessarily due to a shortage of training, but a lack of BIM knowledge, which inadvertently influenced every day practice. The research presented builds on the extant body of works that have examined how the construction industry can effectively acquire the benefits of BIM for asset management. It also highlights the need to incorporate education and learning into a project’s BIM implementation strategy.