Hierarchical priors for Bayesian CART shrinkage

The Bayesian CART (classification and regression tree) approach proposed by Chipman, George and McCulloch (1998) entails putting a prior distribution on the set of all CART models and then using stochastic search to select a model. The main thrust of this paper is to propose a new class of hierarchical priors which enhance the potential of this Bayesian approach. These priors indicate a preference for smooth local mean structure, resulting in tree models which shrink predictions from adjacent terminal node towards each other. Past methods for tree shrinkage have searched for trees without shrinking, and applied shrinkage to the identified tree only after the search. By using hierarchical priors in the stochastic search, the proposed method searches for shrunk trees that fit well and improves the tree through shrinkage of predictions.     

From Strength to Strength: An Interview with Russell Deal

Russell Deal is the founder and managing director of Innovative Resources, the publishing arm of St. Luke's Anglicare, Bendigo. Russell is a social worker, who for the past 13 years has been a publisher. Strength Cards, now a widely used resource all over the world, were followed by The Bears, and more recently by Koala Company, Name the Frame, Mates Traits and many other resources designed to address a range of situations with individuals, families, teams and communities. Details available at www.innovativeresources.org     

The View from the Top: Senior Executives' Perceptions of Changing Management Practices in UK Companies1

There is a growing literature which suggests that the 1980s witnessed significant, even unprecedented changes in the management of organizations. This paper contributes to that literature by providing questionnaire and interview-based evidence of senior managers' perceptions of recent changes in management practice in large and medium-sized firms in the UK. The findings cover three main areas: the changing context of management practice; change initiatives in the areas of human resource management (HRM) and management levels; and the degree of success in managing change. Our findings suggest that senior managers perceive rapid and continuous change within the UK corporate sector. We conclude by suggesting that the changes reported appear to be of degree rather than a radical break with past management practices and that inconsistent means of facilitating change are seemingly being deployed.     

Making Sense of “Quality?” — Toward a Review and Critique of Quality Initiatives in Financial Services

This article provides a broad classification and critique of the theoretical and empirical approaches toward quality initiatives. These are the technical managerialist, social managerialist, and critical nonmanagerialist approaches. The technical managerialist approach is based upon the flawed assumption that practice follows policy almost like night follows day. By contrast, focusing on intraorganizational politics and the tensions of hierarchy, social managerialists recognize that outcomes are always a negotiated compromise. A majority of these authors are concerned with rendering quality initiatives more effective for management. In contrast, critical nonmanagerialists refuse to take on uncritically the assumptions and attitudes of management, and are concerned with understanding the forms and content of quality initiatives. The article provides a conceptual framework for guiding and advancing research on quality initiatives, and it offers themes and issues which warrant exploring.     

MODELLING THE 2004 SUPER 12 RUGBY UNION COMPETITION

This paper uses Bayesian methods via WinBUGS to model round robin play in the 2004 Super 12 Rugby Union competition in order to explore home advantage and how that impacts the outcome of the competition. The scores from the games are decomposed into counts of converted and unconverted tries, penalties and drop goals and are modelled as Poisson random variables with a log link. The dependent variables are the offensive and defensive capabilities of the teams along with terms for home advantage. The model is used to ascertain the effects of home advantage on the standings of the teams in the competition and, from that, how fairness in the competition could be improved.     

Measuring active living in Canada: A time-use perspective

In Canada there is an increasing prevalence of chronic medical conditions and diseases related to a modifiable risk factor - physical inactivity. Therefore, it is important to have regular, robust, population-based surveillance of physical activity engagement that can be used to develop policy interventions and measure their success. The primary objective of this study is to describe the methods used to quantify the proportion of Canadians engaging in physical activities at the intensities and durations required to either maintain or enhance their health. Results indicate the overall proportion of Canadians meeting maintenance levels of physical activity has increased between 1992 (76.2%), 1998 (77.3%), and 2005 (82.5%), but over the same time the proportion meeting enhancement levels of physical activity has decreased (38.1%, 36.6%, and 30.6%, respectively). Furthermore, the results demonstrate the potential applications of time-use data for public health and quality of life research.     

The differential influence of geographic isolation on environmental migration: a study of internal migration amidst degrading conditions in the central Pacific

Population and Environment - This study investigates how geographic isolation interacts with declining environmental and economic conditions in Kiribati, an island nation wherein which limited...