The role of aspirations and aspirations adaptation in explaining satisficing and bounded rationality

The explanation of bounded rationality in terms of satisficing has been received with skepticism, but Simon's claim that satisficing reflects aspirations and their adaptation could help resolve the matter, particularly taking account of the amplifications introduced by Selten to include motivational factors. Experimental investigations by Guth and his colleagues provide some support. Open-ended, in-depth interviews by Bewley and Schwartz help explain the factors that influence aspirations (which may differ for different tasks), giving attention to affective influences and also to context. They suggest a positive but more complicated relationship between the relative success in realizing profits aspirations and the adaptation of those aspirations, and also in the consequences that aspiration levels have for bounded rationality.     

Likelihood analysis for a class of beta mixed models

Beta regression is a suitable choice for modelling continuous response variables taking values on the unit interval. Data structures such as hierarchical, repeated measures and longitudinal typically induce extra variability and/or dependence and can be accounted for by the inclusion of random effects. In this sense, Statistical inference typically requires numerical methods, possibly combined with sampling algorithms. A class of Beta mixed models is adopted for the analysis of two real problems with grouped data structures. We focus on likelihood inference and describe the implemented algorithms. The first is a study on the life quality index of industry workers with data collected according to an hierarchical sampling scheme. The second is a study assessing the impact of hydroelectric power plants upon measures of water quality indexes up, downstream and at the reservoirs of the dammed rivers, with a nested and longitudinal data structure. Results from different algorithms are reported for comparison including from data-cloning, an alternative to numerical approximations which also allows assessing identifiability. Confidence intervals based on profiled likelihoods are compared with those obtained by asymptotic quadratic approximations, showing relevant differences for parameters related to the random effects. In both cases, the scientific hypothesis of interest was investigated by comparing alternative models, leading to relevant interpretations of the results within each context.     

Counselling and Psychotherapy: Is There a Difference? Does It Matter?

The terms ‘counselling’ and ‘psychotherapy’ are often employed in a loosely interchangeable way, especially in Australia. Where distinctions are made, there has been little agreement on what each term should cover. This article examines several axes on which ‘counselling’ might potentially be distinguished from ‘psychotherapy’; the most promising basis for such a distinction seems to be whether or not the mode of work attempts to access the unconscious. On this basis, several modalities currently termed ‘therapy’ would in fact be classed as types of ‘counselling’, including those modalities of family therapy which aim to engage clients at the level of conscious behaviour change and restructuring. Consideration of how new professionals are trained lends support to a continuum, with short‐term, problem‐focused conscious‐oriented approaches at one end, and longer‐term, transference‐focused, unconscious‐oriented approaches at the other, the dividing line coming at the point where trainees learn the skill of ‘immediacy’.     

Facial expression in the presence of friends and strangers

This study investigated the effect of the physical presence of a friend or of a stranger on facial expressiveness. Pairs of friends and pairs of strangers (all women) were unobtrusively videotaped while they viewed together a number of emotional stimulus slides, and rated their individual emotional responses to them. Judges subsequently attempted to identify from the videotapes the emotions reported by each sender subject. Generally, expressions were more readily identified for women videotaped with friends than for those recorded with strangers. These results support the suggestion that the degree to which emotions are expressed depends on the role of an accompanying person. Altemative interpretations of this view are discussed.We thank Alan Fridlund and an anonymous reviewer for comments on a previous version of this paper.     

The Cat and Mouse Game at the Mexico‐U.S. Border: Gendered Patterns and Recent Shifts1

This paper provides new insights into the process of undocumented border crossing by examining both men and women in the process. We investigate differences in the ways in which men and women make their way across the well‐guarded Mexico‐U.S. border, and the extent to which men and women by the end of the 1990s were similar to, or different from, their counterparts who crossed before 1986 and the implementation of immigration policy designed to reduce undocumented migration. We find substantial differences in how men and women crossed the border without legal documents and in their chances of being apprehended. Our analysis makes clear that shifts in U.S. immigration policy after 1986 have led to women's greater reliance on the assistance of paid smugglers to cross without documents but men were more likely to cross alone. Moreover, immediately after 1986, women on first U.S. trips faced higher risks of being apprehended compared to women who migrated in the early 1980s, but men faced lower risks. After accumulating some U.S. experience, however, both women and men faced lower risks of being detected after 1986 compared to earlier in that decade.     

Should I Stay or Should I Go? Explaining Turnover Intentions with Organizational Identification and Job Satisfaction*

The social identity approach is a powerful theoretical framework for the understanding of individuals' behaviour. The main argument is that individuals think and act on behalf of the group they belong to because this group membership adds to their social identity, which partly determines one's self‐esteem. In the organizational world, social identity and self‐categorization theories state that a strong organizational identification is associated with low turnover intentions. Because identification is the more general perception of shared fate between employee and organization, we propose that the relationship between identification and turnover will be mediated by job satisfaction as the more specific evaluation of one's task and working conditions. In four samples we found organizational identification feeding into job satisfaction, which in turn predicts turnover intentions.     

Where Did the Bodies Go? The Social Construction of Suicide Data,New York City, 1976–1992*

The number of suicides reported for New York City by the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) fell precipitously in 1985 and remained extremely low until 1989, when it returned to pre‐1985 levels. The downturn in reported suicides from 1985 to 1988 occurred in all five of the city's boroughs but did not extend to the suburbs. The apparent drop in suicide rates was largely and perhaps completely an artifact of personnel and policy changes in the New York City Chief Medical Examiner's Office during a period in which the office engaged in defensive structuring in the face of severe political, economic, and journalistic pressures. During the downturn, suicides were “hidden” in reported deaths attributable to non‐motor‐vehicle accidents and, to a lesser extent, undeter‐mined external causes. The socially constructed trough in suicide rates between 1985 and 1988 affects the outcome of tests of theories of suicidal behavior using county‐level data for New York State.