A Bayesian approach for parameter estimation in multi-stage models

Multi-stage time evolving models are common statistical models for biological systems, especially insect populations. In stage-duration distribution models, parameter estimation for the models use the Laplace transform method. This method involves assumptions such as known constant shapes, known constant rates or the same overall hazard rate for all stages. These assumptions are strong and restrictive. The main aim of this paper is to weaken these assumptions by using a Bayesian approach. In particular, a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm based on deterministic transformations is used to estimate parameters. We will use two models, one which has no hazard rates, and the other has stage-wise constant hazard rates. These methods are validated in simulation studies followed by a case study of cattle parasites. The results show that the proposed methods are able to estimate the parameters comparably well, as opposed to using the Laplace transform methods.     

Street‐level discretion,emotional labour and welfare frontline staff at the Australian employment service providers

Despite the current controversial debates about discretion in public bureaucracies in general, and in welfare agencies in particular, the current literature on street‐level bureaucracy mainly assumes that discretion is a distinctive feature of the daily work of public servants. Nonetheless, a pertinent question has not specifically been asked in this literature, that is, given the context of privatisation and increased welfare conditionality in the welfare sector that are seriously challenging welfare frontline staff's commitment to social justice and human rights‐based practices, what are forms of street‐level discretion likely to contribute to improving the quality of welfare services? In this study, we attempt to address this question by exploring discretion displayed by welfare frontline staff in four Australian employment service providers. We argue that emotional labour, especially when being informed by critical empathy, is an important and effective form of street‐level discretion that welfare frontline workers can perform to better support welfare recipients and minimise the punitive aspects of welfare policy.     

Program participation in a targeted land distribution program and household outcomes: evidence from Vietnam

We estimate whether a land reform program led to higher incomes for ethnic minority households. In 2002, in the Central Highlands of Vietnam, Program 132 directed the transfer of farm land to ethnic minority households that had less than one hectare of land. Using the 2002 Vietnam Household Living Standards Survey as a baseline, in 2008 we resurveyed over one-thousand households to provide a retrospective evaluation of the impact of their participation in Program 132. Contrary to official reports, our findings show that there was considerable deviation from the planned program parameters: many eligible households did not receive land, while ineligible households often did. We estimate that beneficiaries of the program in the province of Kon Tum experienced increases of household income largely in line with what one would expect from a small plot of poor farm land. Outside Kon Tum, where participation rates were substantially lower, the story is more mixed, and household incomes did not improve with program participation. Overall, our results underscore the limitations of simple transfers of land as a mechanism for improving the living standards of ethnic minorities. Our results also show the significant gap that can exist between program design and decentralized implementation. We discuss the potential implications for program evaluation.     

One-sided synthetic control charts for monitoring the multivariate coefficient of variation

Shewhart's type control charts for monitoring the Multivariate Coefficient of Variation (MCV) have recently been proposed in order to monitor the relative variability compared with the mean. These approaches are known to be rather slow in the detection of small or moderate process shifts. In this paper, in order to improve the detection efficiency, two one-sided Synthetic charts for the MCV are proposed. A Markov chain method is used to evaluate the statistical performance of the proposed charts. Furthermore, computational experiments reveal that the proposed control charts outperform the Shewhart MCV control chart in terms of the average run length to detect an out-of-control state. Finally, the implementation of the proposed chart is illustrated with an example using steel sleeves data.     

Oracle model selection for correlated data via residuals

This paper concerns model selection for autoregressive time series when the observations are contaminated with trend. We propose an adaptive least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) type model selection method, in which the trend is estimated by B-splines, the detrended residuals are calculated, and then the residuals are used as if they were observations to optimize an adaptive LASSO type objective function. The oracle properties of such an adaptive LASSO model selection procedure are established; that is, the proposed method can identify the true model with probability approaching one as the sample size increases, and the asymptotic properties of estimators are not affected by the replacement of observations with detrended residuals. The intensive simulation studies of several constrained and unconstrained autoregressive models also confirm the theoretical results. The method is illustrated by two time series data sets, the annual U.S. tobacco production and annual tree ring width measurements.     

Social protection systems and the future of work: Ensuring social security for digital platform workers

Digitalization is transforming societies and economies worldwide at an unprecedented scale and pace. In the wake of automation and digitalization, new forms of employment have been emerging in various occupations and sectors, such as the digital platform economy. The emergence of new forms of employment, such as work on digital platforms, requires that existing social protection systems adapt to the specific situation and needs of such workers, as to realize the human right to social security for all. Current social protection coverage for workers on digital crowdwork platforms reveals significant gaps in social security coverage. Where such coverage exists, it is often provided through the workers’ previous or additional jobs, or indirectly through their spouses or other family members. This raises questions about digital platforms free riding on the traditional economy with regard to the financing of social security. How can social protection systems adapt to changing forms of work to ensure full and effective coverage for workers in all forms of employment, including those in “new” forms of employment? How can workers in all types of employment, including those on digital platforms, be protected in an adequate and comprehensive way, combining contributory and non‐contributory mechanisms and based on equitable and sustainable financing mechanisms, so as to ensure adequate social protection to all?     

Heterogeneous impacts of provincial governance on household welfare in Vietnam

This study investigated the role of provincial governance in the growth of per capita income of Vietnamese households, using a balanced panel data set for the period 2012–2014. Although we found no evidence for the influence of provincial governance when a linear fixed‐effect regression estimator was used, the results from a fixed‐effect quantile regression estimator revealed that provincial governance has a positive effect on all groups (but not the poorest) and that the effect tends to be greater for better‐off households. In addition, we found that wage employment plays a larger role in the income growth of poorer households, whereas returns on education are greater for richer households. The findings suggest that a mean regression approach that looks only a t the role of explanatory variables on mean household welfare, and does not consider differences in the distribution of household welfare, may miss some heterogeneity that is of interest to policymakers. Key Practitioner Message: ? Using a quantile regression approach has allowed the current study to provide new insight into the role of household‐related factors in household welfare. ? Finding shows that good governance tends to provide greater benefits to richer households than to other groups in the population.     

CEO characteristics and firm valuation: a quantile regression analysis

This study investigates the effects of three highly-visible CEO characteristics on firm valuation. Using a sample of 2702 observations for Australian firms over the period 2001–2011, we find that CEO age is uniformly associated with lower firm valuation. CEO tenure is also associated with lower valuation, but more significantly so in the higher quantiles of firm valuation, that is for firms with high-growth opportunities. In contrast, CEO duality is found to be beneficial only for firms with high-growth opportunities. Overall, the study highlights the contingent relationship between CEO characteristics and firm valuation.     

越南巴为国家森林公园生态旅游非使用价值评估——基于二分式与支付卡诱导技术的比较

条件价值评估法（CVM）是目前唯一能获知环境资源的全部经济价值,包括使用和非使用价值。CVM评估环境物品价值原理是通过假想市场来了解消费者对具体的一个环境物品的偏好,并通过支付意愿而表现出来。CVM调查过程中,为了获得消费者对环境物品价值的偏好,必须通过各种诱导技术。不同的诱导技术可产生不同的支付意愿结果。本研究通过评估越南巴为国家森林公园生态旅游非使用价值来比较CVM中的两分式（DC）和支付卡（PC）诱导技术。通过本研究结果,得出以下的结论：（1）DC技术获得的支付意愿（wTP）和参与者的“同意”支付都高于PC技术;（2）CVM完全可以应用于环境物品非使用价值评估领域。