Information fraction estimation: Strategies for a phase 3 non-inferiority maximum duration design with time to event outcome

There is considerable debate surrounding the choice of methods to estimate information fraction for futility monitoring in a randomized non-inferiority maximum duration trial. This question was motivated by a pediatric oncology study that aimed to establish non-inferiority for two primary outcomes. While non-inferiority was determined for one outcome, the futility monitoring of the other outcome failed to stop the trial early, despite accumulating evidence of inferiority. For a one-sided trial design for which the intervention is inferior to the standard therapy, futility monitoring should provide the opportunity to terminate the trial early. Our research focuses on the Total Control Only (TCO) method, which is defined as a ratio of observed events to total events exclusively within the standard treatment regimen. We investigate its properties in stopping a trial early in favor of inferiority. Simulation results comparing the TCO method with alternative methods, one based on the assumption of an inferior treatment effect (TH0), and the other based on a specified hypothesis of a non-inferior treatment effect (THA), were provided under various pediatric oncology trial design settings. The TCO method is the only method that provides unbiased information fraction estimates regardless of the hypothesis assumptions and exhibits a good power and a comparable type I error rate at each interim analysis compared to other methods. Although none of the methods is uniformly superior on all criteria, the TCO method possesses favorable characteristics, making it a compelling choice for estimating the information fraction when the aim is to reduce cancer treatment-related adverse outcomes.     

Greed and fear: Competitive and charitable priming in a threshold volunteer's dilemma

In the “k-volunteer's dilemma” benefit accrues to all members if at least k members volunteer, and receive nothing otherwise. We use experiments to examine (a) volunteering behavior when threshold k increases from 1 to 2, and (b) whether volunteering behavior shifts toward norms associated with one of two primed identities—charitable or competitive. We find that increasing the threshold increases an individual's probability of volunteering, but the likelihood of good provision is lower. Neither priming affects volunteering behavior when k = 1, but competitive priming effectively increases volunteering when k = 2. Both greed and fear of non-provision appear to affect volunteering.     

Literature and the Therapeutic Imagination

Summary The therapeutic imagination is closely related to the literaryimagination and is concerned with similar issues of the relationshipof the self to society. The study of literature needs to bean integral part of social work education if workers are tobe helped to confront the dilemmas faced by the social worksensibility.     

Do cultural orientations moderate the relation between Chinese adolescents’ shyness and depressive symptoms? It depends on their academic achievement

We examined the moderating roles of individualistic and collectivistic cultural orientations and academic achievement on the relation between Chinese adolescents’ shyness and depressive symptoms. A sample of Chinese adolescents (N = 492) from an urban school participated in the study during seventh (T1) and eighth (T2) grades. Adolescents self‐reported their shyness, cultural orientations, and depressive symptoms. The school provided records of their academic achievement. Concurrently, shyness and individualism were positively whereas collectivism and academic achievement were negatively, associated with adolescents’ depressive symptoms. Longitudinally, T1 shyness (but not individualism, collectivism, or academic achievement) predicted T2 depressive symptoms after controlling for stability in depressive symptoms. Concurrent relations between shyness and depressive symptoms were moderated by adolescents’ cultural orientations. Specifically, collectivism was protective whereas individualism was harmful, for shy adolescents’ adjustment. Furthermore, collectivism and academic achievement jointly moderated the relations between shyness and depressive symptoms concurrently and longitudinally. The results suggest that cultural orientations may influence shy adolescents’ depression symptoms through individual‐level self‐evaluation, and indicate that cultural factors and academic achievement need to be considered comprehensively for understanding and improving shy Chinese adolescents’ psychological adjustment.     

Suzi and Mr. S.: Gender role stereotyping in social workers' court reports in custody and access cases.

This paper analyzes the “gender strategies” of a sample of Israeli women social workers as evidenced in the recommendations that they write for the courts on custody and visiting rights for divorcing couples. Textual analysis of these reports reveals what Hochchild terms a “traditional gender strategy,” manifested in a consistent pattern of gender stereotyping. There are clear differences in the way the social workers present the husband and wife as persons, both separately and in relation to one another, and in the roles that they expect them to fulfill, with the man being assigned the provider role and the woman the parent role. Even the way they collect information about the two parents' relationships with their children is different. The paper concludes with a discussion of the practical implications of the findings.     

Two-Person and majority continuous aggregation in 2-good space in Social Choice: a note

Impossibility theorems for 2-person and majority continuous games on the unit circle are presented. The emphasis is on simple methods, albeit generating new results, to offer insights into the sophisticated results of theorists in topological social choice.     

Backward Induction Is Not Robust: The Parity Problem and the Uncertainty Problem

A cornerstone of game theory is backward induction, whereby players reason backward from the end of a game in extensive form to the beginning in order to determine what choices are rational at each stage of play. Truels, or three-person duels, are used to illustrate how the outcome can depend on (1) the evenness/oddness of the number of rounds (the parity problem) and (2) uncertainty about the endpoint of the game (the uncertainty problem). Since there is no known endpoint in the latter case, an extension of the idea of backward induction is used to determine the possible outcomes. The parity problem highlights the lack of robustness of backward induction, but it poses no conflict between foundational principles. On the other hand, two conflicting views of the future underlie the uncertainty problem, depending on whether the number of rounds is bounded (the players invariably shoot from the start) or unbounded (they may all cooperate and never shoot, despite the fact that the truel will end with certainty and therefore be effectively bounded). Some real-life examples, in which destructive behavior sometimes occurred and sometimes did not, are used to illustrate these differences, and some ethical implications of the analysis are discussed.