Using the ‘risk factor paradigm’ in prevention: lessons from the evaluation of Communities that Care

This paper discusses results from an evaluation of the UK-based Communities that Care programme. This ‘risk and protective’ programme was set up in 1997 by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation with a central aim of exploring if such an approach could be successful in the UK context. Communities that Care puts into operation the ‘risk factor paradigm’ by providing evidence of risk and protection for local communities that help them target resources for the reduction of future social problems. Results show that such a model looks ‘promising’ although though there are substantial implementation issues that need to be addressed if it is to be successful over a longer time frame.     

Assembling an economic actor: the agencement of a Hedge Fund

Michel Callon has conceptualised economic actors as made up of socio‐technical agencements: collectives of human beings, technical devices, algorithms, and so on. This article reports a pilot, partially observational study of a hedge fund, a category of actor in financial markets that is of growing importance but that has so far attracted little attention in economic sociology. It draws on that study, and on interviews with other financial market practitioners, to delineate what is involved in viewing such an actor as made up of an agencement, and discusses the merits of doing so.     

AVERAGE PREDICTIVE COMPARISONS FOR MODELS WITH NONLINEARITY, INTERACTIONS, AND VARIANCE COMPONENTS

In a predictive model, what is the expected difference in the outcome associated with a unit difference in one of the inputs? In a linear regression model without interactions, this average predictive comparison is simply a regression coefficient (with associated uncertainty). In a model with nonlinearity or interactions, however, the average predictive comparison in general depends on the values of the predictors. We consider various definitions based on averages over a population distribution of the predictors, and we compute standard errors based on uncertainty in model parameters. We illustrate with a study of criminal justice data for urban counties in the United States. The outcome of interest measures whether a convicted felon received a prison sentence rather than a jail or non-custodial sentence, with predictors available at both individual and county levels. We fit three models: (1) a hierarchical logistic regression with varying coefficients for the within-county intercepts as well as for each individual predictor; (2) a hierarchical model with varying intercepts only; and (3) a nonhierarchical model that ignores the multilevel nature of the data. The regression coefficients have different interpretations for the different models; in contrast, the models can be compared directly using predictive comparisons. Furthermore, predictive comparisons clarify the interplay between the individual and county predictors for the hierarchical models and also illustrate the relative size of varying county effects.     

Growth Promotion Activities in Rural Areas: Do They Make a Difference?1

Abstract Can leaders in small towns and surrounding areas actually influence local economic and demographic growth? Competing views but few studies of this issue characterize recent debates about the effects of “growth machines” in local areas. This paper uses alternative indicators of growth during the 1980s for a sample of local areas in rural Pennsylvania to examine the effects of development efforts, controlling ecological and structural characteristics. The analysis considers local participation in state programs and maintenance of a favorable business climate as well as measures of local growth promotion for business and industry, recreation and tourism, development of forest products, and services development. Hierarchical regressions, taking account of the statistically dominant effects of ecological and structural variables, show that local efforts can influence local growth.     

Increasing User Choice or Privatizing Risk? The Antinomies of Personalization

Within a very short space of time, the concept of personalizationhas come to occupy a central place within dominant social workand adult care discourses within the UK. Through an analysisof one influential model of personalization, this paper willexplore the factors behind the concept’s current popularity.I shall argue that this popularity is due primarily to its congruencewith key themes of New Labour thought, including individualization,responsibilization and the transfer of risk from the state tothe individual. I shall conclude that, given its acceptanceof the marketization of social work and social care, its neglectof issues of poverty and inequality, its flawed conception ofthe people who use social work services, its potentially stigmatizingview of welfare dependency and its potential for promoting,rather than challenging, the deprofessionalization of socialwork, the philosophy of personalization is not one that socialworkers should accept uncritically.