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161.
We suggest a statistical estimator to quantify the propagation of cascading transmission line failures in large blackouts of electric power systems. We use a Galton‐Watson branching process model of cascading failure and the standard Harris estimator of the mean propagation modified to work when the process saturates at a maximum number of components. If the mean number of initial failures and the mean propagation are estimated, then the branching process model predicts the distribution of the total number of failures. We initially test this prediction on failure data generated by a simulation of cascading transmission line outages on two standard test systems. We discuss the effectiveness of the estimator in terms of how many cascades need to be simulated to predict the distribution of the total number of line outages accurately. 相似文献
162.
描述了综合运用定性和定量方法对中国青少年饮酒问题所进行的研究.使用文化人类学中的定量方法对三个已知可预测行为的心理学变量进行初步的小样本研究.这三个心理学变量是:青少年对饮酒行为后果的期望(饮酒期望),青少年对中国传统文化和西方文化所持的观点(文化取向),以及青少年在处理饮酒压力方面所表现的信心(自我效能).定性研究所获得的资料被用来设计问卷,测量饮酒期望,文化取向和自我效能.定量数据的调查在大样本青少年人群中进行.统计分析表明,这些问卷能够发现饮酒者和不饮酒者在饮酒期望、文化取向、自我效能方面的差别.对于调查数据进行深入分析的结果,将为政策的制订和健康教育项目的设计指明方向,降低青少年的饮酒风险. 相似文献
163.
Charles Baden-Fuller Beno?t Demil Xavier Lecoq Ian MacMillan 《Long Range Planning》2010,43(2-3):143-145
164.
Transfer of training: A review and new insights 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Even successful training programs cannot guarantee that newly learned knowledge and skills will be transferred to the workplace. This has led to researchers’ interests in understanding the transfer process. Notwithstanding that transfer issues have been studied for several decades, the recent emphasis on ‘workplace learning’, especially the so‐called ‘situated learning’ approach, suggests that conventional training transfer research may be inadequate to understand the dynamics of performance improvement through training. Against this, the authors point to the increased policy emphasis on the development of transferable generic skills, which underscores the ongoing importance of training transfer. This review paper suggests that the role of trainees themselves has not been dealt with sufficiently in research, which leads to a new direction for studying the transfer of training. 相似文献
165.
‘Managing change’ appears a simple enough term. However, no common ontological assumption underlies either the notion of ‘managing’ or that of ‘change’. In this paper, we identify different assumptions about both what it means to manage and the nature of change outcomes. From these assumptions we derive six different images of managing organizational change: directing, navigating, caretaking, coaching, interpreting and nurturing. We show how each image is underpinned by different organization theories. We then take each image and show how the differing ontological assumptions about managing and change outcomes are associated with different research agendas. We illustrate this by focusing on three elements commonly associated with managing organizational change: vision, communication and resistance. 相似文献
166.
Consider a set of points in the plane with Gaussian perturbations about a regular mean configuration in which a Delaunay triangulation of the mean of the process is comprised of equilateral triangles of the same size. The points are labelled at random as black or white with variances of the perturbations possibly dependent on the colour. By investigating triangle subsets (with four sets of possible colour labels for the vertices) in detail we propose various test statistics based on a Procrustes shape analysis. A simulation study is carried out to investigate the relative merits and the adequacy of the approximations used in the distributional results, as well as a comparison with simulation methods based on nearest-neighbour distances. The methodology is applied to an investigation of regularity in human muscle fibre cross-sections. 相似文献
167.
This paper examines the relatively unexplored area of underachievement in organization change programmes, where the original ambitions of the authors of change fail to be realized at the level of implementation. A case in point is the British Civil Service which after several years of government endeavour has not seen the large-scale, ‘second order’ change that had been expected. The paper offers a cultural perspective on this issue. Using the findings from an in-depth, ethnographic study of one of the newly formed agencies within the civil service, it argues that attempts at change can be frustrated by a ‘cultural infrastructure’ at the local level which acts to neutralize any attempt to change from above - in relative power terms a case of David defeating Goliath. This structure is a social defence against the anxieties and ambiguities brought about by the threat of impending change, and is manifested not as resistance, or even avoidance, but disregard and unstudied indifference. These local cultural orientations are the cause of ‘schematic myopia’ (Harris, 1989) or collective blindness, which prevent those affected from recognizing the significance of a major change initiative. An examination of these cultural processes reveals the inherent weaknesses and limitations of one of the most ubiquitous of change models to be found in organizations today: the top-down, ‘invasionary’ approach to change. 相似文献
168.
Ian Fells 《Long Range Planning》1982,15(4):76-85
Society and its technology are in a crucial state of transition. This paper describes the energy options available into the early part of the twenty-first century and some solutions to the problematic energy equation. Energy demand will grow as the world population and its economic growth increases. If the shortcomings of the system are not tackled and overcome there will be real energy shortages within the next 20 years. 相似文献
169.
Choice,freedom, and freedom of choice 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
This paper argues in favour of a distinction between freedom and freedom of choice – a distinction that economists and political philosophers have so far either ignored or drawn wrongly. Drawing the distinction correctly may help to resolve a number of disputes in contemporary political philosophy and non-welfarist normative economics regarding the so-called preference-based account of freedom and the relevance, to judgements about freedom, of degrees of similarity between agents options. The paper begins by setting out three much discussed axioms for the measurement of freedom (of choice?) originally put forward by Pattanaik and Xu. It is suggested that the problems these axioms give rise to can be solved by distinguishing correctly between freedom and freedom of choice. The paper then sets out definitions of freedom, choice and freedom of choice, justifying these in philosophical terms and arguing their superiority to alternative definitions. Finally, on the basis of these definitions and with reference to Pattanaik and Xus axioms, it is shown that an agent can enjoy freedom without enjoying freedom of choice, and that she can enjoy an increase in one of these without enjoying an increase in the other.
For their helpful comments on earlier drafts of this paper, I should like to thank Keith Dowding, Martin van Hees, Matthew Kramer, Marco Negri, Serena Olsaretti, Olof Page, Mario Ricciardi, Alan Ritter, Hillel Steiner, Kotaro Suzumura and audiences at seminars in Manchester, Palermo, Pavia and Oxford. I am grateful to the Italian Ministry for Higher Education (MURST) and the Italian National Research Council (CNR) for funding that facilitated the completion of the paper. 相似文献
170.
Huggett DL Elliott ID Overend TJ Vandervoort AA 《Journal of aging and physical activity》2004,12(2):157-169
The authors compared heart-rate and blood-pressure responses to typical isometric (ISO) and isokinetic (90 degrees /s) eccentric (ECC) resistance-training protocols in older adults. Twenty healthy older adults (74 +/- 5 years old) performed randomly ordered ISO and isokinetic ECC exercise (3 sets of 10 repetitions) at a target intensity of 100 % of their peak ISO torque value. Heart rate and systolic (SBP) and diastolic (DBP) blood pressures were recorded continuously, and mean arterial pressure (MAP) and rate-pressure product (RPP) were calculated. ECC peak torque (139 +/- 33 N. m) was significantly greater than ISO peak torque (115 +/- 26 N. m; p <.001). All variables increased significantly (p <.001) during both ISO and ECC exercise. Changes in SBP, DBP, MAP, and RPP were significantly greater during ISO exercise than during ECC exercise (p <.001). Clinically, an isokinetic ECC exercise program enables older adults to work at the same torque output with less cardiovascular stress than ISO exercise. 相似文献