Growing Pains: How Risk Perception and Risk Communication Research Can Help to Manage the Challenges of Global Population Growth

In 2011, the global human population reached 7 billion and medium variant projections indicate that it will exceed 9 billion before 2045. Theoretical and empirical perspectives suggest that this growth could lead to an increase in the likelihood of adverse events (e.g., food shortages, climate change, etc.) and/or the severity of adverse events (e.g., famines, natural disasters, etc.). Several scholars have posited that the size to which the global population grows and the extent to which this growth increases the likelihood of adverse outcomes will largely be shaped by individuals’ decisions (in households, organizations, governments, etc.). In light of the strong relationship between perceived risk and decision behaviors, it is surprising that there remains a dearth of empirical research that specifically examines the perceived risks of population growth and how these perceptions might influence related decisions. In an attempt to motivate this important strand of research, this article examines the major risks that may be exacerbated by global population growth and draws upon empirical work concerning the perception and communication of risk to identify potential directions for future research. The article also considers how individuals might perceive both the risks and benefits of population growth and be helped to better understand and address the related issues. The answers to these questions could help humanity better manage the emerging consequences of its continuing success in increasing infant survival and adult longevity.     

A ‘Tripadvisor’ for disability? Social enterprise and ‘digital disruption’ in Australia

ABSTRACT

We explore how social enterprises can use platform technologies to plug ‘informational gaps’ in the provision of disability services. Such gaps are made more apparent by policies promoting self-directed care as a means of giving service users more choice and control. We use a case study of a start-up social enterprise seeking to provide a TripAdvisor style service to examine the potential for social innovation to ‘disrupt’ current models of service. The case study suggests that any disruptive effects of such changes are not due to new digital technology per se, nor to novel platform business models, but rather rest in the manner in which the moral orders which justify current patterns of social disablement can be challenged by social innovation.     

The Sustainability of Population Health

The study of population health encompasses analysis of the fundamental influences on human health, the consequences of such influences for societies and individuals, and the ways in which people and institutions respond to these consequences. A theme lacking from the present discourse is that of the sustainability of population health. To be sustainable, societies must respect the boundaries of natural systems and scorn disparities in standards of living. Preliminary analysis of data from 152 countries reveals an inverse relation between measures of population health and sustainability, although there are examples of societies where this inverse relation does not hold. Future research in population health should begin to question the sustainability of improving the health of some populations at the expense of others, and investigate how some societies appear to be able to achieve population health without compromising the health of the biosphere.     

The South African fertility decline: Evidence from two censuses and a Demographic and Health Survey

Inadequate data and apartheid policies have meant that, until recently, most demographers have not had the opportunity to investigate the level of, and trend in, the fertility of South African women. The 1996 South Africa Census and the 1998 Demographic and Health Survey provide the first widely available and nationally representative demographic data on South Africa since 1970. Using these data, this paper describes the South African fertility decline from 1955 to 1996. Having identified and adjusted for several errors in the 1996 Census data, the paper argues that total fertility at that time was 3.2 children per woman nationally, and 3.5 children per woman for African South Africans. These levels are lower than in any other sub-Saharan African country. We show also that fertility in South Africa has been falling since the 1960s. Thus, fertility transition predates the establishment of a family planning programme in the country in 1974.     

Patterns of Cocaine Use in Australia, 1985–88

Cocaine has been seen as a potential social and health threat to Australia, a role it already occupies in the United States. However, the results of two national population surveys, collected in 1985 and 1988, cast doubt on this interpretation. Contrary to popular perception, they show that the proportion who report having tried cocaine has declined, not increased. There has also been a decline in the proportion who say that they would try cocaine if it was offered by a friend. While some groups are at higher risk from cocaine in 1988 than in 1985, notably women aged in their late twenties and thirties, the overall pattern is of a decline in the high risk categories. Moreover, cocaine remains a drug of the better-educated young in Australia, not the under-privileged, as in the United States. Some tentative explanations for why cocaine has not become more popular, focusing on its image, Australia's social structure, and availability and cost factors associated with cocaine, are discussed.     

Estimating the Prevalence of Hard-to-Reach Populations: The Illustration of Mark-Recapture Methods in the Study of Homelessness

This paper assesses the potential of mark-recapture methods as a relatively powerful innovative research method for estimating the prevalence of "hard-to-reach"human populations in the social welfare field. We outline the development of mark-recapture methods, illustrating some recent applications. The body of the paper reviews the main methodological and practical questions raised by the method. We suggest, by way of illustration, how it might be applied to estimating the prevalence of rough sleepers in a given geographical region.     

Shape-shifter and Agenda Setter: The Influence of Emotion in Social Work Practice and Practice Education

As an interpersonal profession, operating within and between a myriad of nebulous psycho-social worlds, a significant proportion of social work’s currency resides in emotion, providing impetus for action or omission. This paper asserts that due diligence must be exercised towards emotion within social work training and practice, giving consideration to the journey towards qualification, fraught as it can be; emphasising the need to bring emotion out of the shadows and into the light. This is not simply a ‘how did that make you feel?’ task, rather one of acknowledgement and acceptance, which lends itself to an exploration of the layered interface where emotion comes into being, prodded and poked, twisted and contorted, by the powerful forces of politics, sensationalism and reductionism, which seek to orchestrate simplicity and control.